Jupiterian Local
I've seen reports that climate change models suggest hurricanes will get stronger but less frequent, actually. This is worse than it sounds — a lot of hurricanes are relatively weak and blow through without much in the way of damage. If they get slightly less frequent but considerably stronger, then that's still an increase in how often damage occurs.
Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
In rough order of decreasing certainty and with sources, with climate change:
- (Very certain) Tropical cyclones will become wetter. That's a big deal as most fatalities in developed countries are caused by flooding (e.g Hurricane Harvey in 2017), and a sizable fraction of that in undeveloped countries too. [1]
- (Quite certain) Storm surge will become worse. That's a big deal as most fatalities in developing countries are caused by surge (e.g Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, Cyclone Nargis in 2008, Ex-typhoon Nora/"Bhola" cyclone in 1970), and a sizable fraction of that in developed countries too (Hurricane Katrina in 2005). This is already happening, [[it's possible that the Katrina disaster would not have happened in 1900]]. [2]
- (Fairly certain) Tropical cyclones will become more intense, i.e lower core pressure. [3]
- (Fairly certain) Tropical cyclones will appear farther poleward than they do now. This is probably already happening, too. [4]
- (Kinda certain) Tropical cyclones will become stronger, i.e windier. If you wonder why I am classifying this as less certain than intensity is because intensity also increases with storm size. [5]
- (Kinda certain) Tropical cyclones will become slower. [6]
- (Not so certain) Tropical cyclones will become larger. Note that we know virtually nothing on what governs the size of the storm and that's the main source of uncertainty. [7]
- (Not so certain) Tropical cyclones who jump from "blob of thunderstorms"—>"category 3+ hurricane" in short time will become more common. See Maria in 2017 and Michael in 2018 for good examples; in both cases many of the places eventually hit were surprised by how fast these storms intensified. [8] Relatedly...
- (Not so certain) Forecasting the strength of tropical cyclones will become more difficult. [9]
- (Not so certain) Tropical cyclones may appear in places where they normally don't occur. [10], [11], [12]
- (Mostly unclear) There may be fewer tropical cyclones. No source on this as I can't find a summary.
Meanwhile, some more news on Michael and Leslie: [['Never seen anything like it': Searchers dig in rubble of seaside town slammed by Michael]], [[Before and After Aerial Maps Show the Miles of Destruction Left by Hurricane Michael]]. Meanwhile [[Hurricane Leslie quickly heading toward Portugal, Spain]]. If it stays tropical or semi-tropical 'til landfall close to Lisbon it might be the first still-tropical cyclone in recorded history there.
Edited by SeptimusHeap on Oct 13th 2018 at 4:21:41 PM
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Second one, actually (the first recorded one happened in 1842).
Glad I live in the north and not Lisbon then. Witnessing a hurricane first-hand is not something that's on my bucket list. Hope it doesn't cause much damage because it will be the *second hurricane in our history, so there's aren't any previous experiences to rely on.
Edit: Apparently the government is already issuing a red alert for my city. Might have to go grab my cats and wait it out inside after all.
Edited by Grafite on Oct 13th 2018 at 3:20:11 PM
Life is unfair...
That storm (discussed here) passed south of Portugal, though.
Doublepost: For what it's worth according to the latest NHC update Leslie is still a hurricane, both in terms of structural traits and in terms of windspeeds. According to their forecast, tropical storm winds are just about to reach Portugal. Portuguese weather forecasts, Spanish weather forecasts, Key NHC messages
eta: Also, since I didn't properly answer Native Jovian's comment this publication says "The increase in frequency of strong T Cs may be a more important factor for future TC damage potential than the decrease in total TC frequency, since a large fraction of historical TC damage has been caused by a relatively few strong T Cs" so there is merit to the notion that "there will be fewer tropical cyclones" is less important than "tropical cyclones will be stronger". Exhibit A being Hurricane Michael which caused a lot more damage than most tropical storms this year (Joyce, Nadine, Kirk) did despite being only one hurricane vs. three tropical storms.
Edited by SeptimusHeap on Oct 13th 2018 at 5:07:28 PM
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Pardon the triple post, but Leslie has become a post-tropical storm just shy of northern Portugal and will make landfall soon, a bit like Sandy 6 years ago. Afterwards it will dissipate on the Iberian Peninsula. It has also become the 10th longest lived tropical system.
There are no more developing tropical systems in the Atlantic and El Nino is on the way. Two systems may develop in the Pacific soon, though.
Also, it looks like emergency crews are making slow headway on Michael as many places in the Florida Panhandle are still cut off and the death toll is rising.
As we speak, Super Typhoon Yutu is about to pass through Saipan and Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands as a Category 5 tropical cyclone with about 180 mph winds. It might be the strongest tropical cyclone there in recorded history.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Just saw this article. A reminder of how the increasing intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes isn't just a result of environmental degradation, but can cause environmental damage themselves.
Mass update:
- (NHC) Tropical Storm Oscar has formed in the Atlantic and will probably become a hurricane shortly. Not that it's likely to hurt anyone.
- (NHC) Two tropical disturbances in the Eastern Pacific may become tropical systems in the next few days.
- ([1]) Hurricane Willa - the first major hurricane to make landfall in the Eastern Pacific this year - has caused a fair bit 'o damage in Mexico: 100,000 homes without power, at least one fatality, flooding leading to evacuations.
- Trump has declared a state of emergency in the Northern Mariana Islands after Typhoon Yutu swept through Tinian and Saipan islands. At least one fatality, widespread devastation, power outages etc. Yutu is the strongest typhoon to pass through the Northern Marianas in recorded history
- Yutu is now moving towards the northern Philippines which were already hit earlier by Mangkhut (70 fatalities or so), and is expected to make landfall in almost the exact part of Luzon where Mangkhut came ashore. Granted Yutu's likely to be weaker than Manghkut.
Another few interesting tidbits:
- This year has seen both the third and the fourth most intense tropical cyclones in the US - Michael in the continental US and Yutu in the whole country.
- Between Oscar/Michael and Yutu, it seems like this year will see above average tropical cyclone activity in all basins of the northern hemisphere.
- The last 12 years have seen unusually strong tropical cyclones make landfall - out of 16 tropical cyclones with at least 175mph winds, 9 have been in and since 2006.
Edited by SeptimusHeap on May 2nd 2019 at 12:17:31 PM
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Scary to think that these storms will only get worse and more frequent as climate change continues.