Rugby Union

Given that soccer (or Association Football as many people would call it) has its own thread on YF, I figure a discussion about Rugby Union would work out here.^note I did see there's a topic about the sport on OTC but it didn't get responses since it's been put up last year XVs and Sevens alike can be discussed.

Well, the US's second shot at a professional league is still in the works and primed for 2018, and the Houston Strikers had recently signed Fijian Sevens star Osea Kolinisau. Also, I did see that at least the foundation here seems at least better-prepared than the ill-fated PRO Rugby. I only hope that Major League Rugby can work out, and go SeaWolves!^note I've only just noticed that the Seattle Saracens, in spite of being a pre-established team, wouldn't take part in MLR, so a missed opportunity for Age of Empires II-related banter since the Austin Huns are taking part.

And there is recent news that Pro14 is now official, with the two South African teams (Bloemfontein's Cheetahs and Port Elizabeth's Southern Kings) joining in from Super Rugby as expected. Oh boy, was the Super Rugby situation a bit of a mess, but at least it looks like the Lions vs. Crusaders final has sold out in Ellis Park (especially given the season's spotty attendance from what I've gathered).

edited 1st Aug '17 4:38:19 PM by GrafVonTirol

I can't say I entirely approve of the situation with the (now) Pro 14, but I'm sympathetic at the very least - I mostly just hope that if nothing else the Aussie game can recover and we don't end up in a situation where everybody else in every other nation watches the NZ national game.

Though I will say, if the US and Canada leagues can improve, then we'll see something good - I know there's other clubs in places like the South and a few on the West Coast, but whether other regions gain much interest is another matter. It would though be pretty interesting to see players from places like Dakota and all along the Canadian border west of the lakes, it seems like they have that potential.

There already is something of a thriving scene in the Mountain West, especially Utah and Colorado. Also pretty common for there to be university rugby clubs nationwide in spite of not being sanctioned by the NCAA (at least not for the time being), though fielding something professional can be another thing entirely, what with there already being established leagues for the Big Four sports and soccer.

And now that Australia's been mentioned, I did see that Andrew Forrest does have plans for the recently-axed Western Force^note Sidenote: I'm pretty miffed that it's not the Rebels of Melbourne. Melbourne may be a bigger market, but the team only won once this past year (even the Sunwolves have a better record), and they have the lowest attendance records in the league AFAIK. Melbourne is pretty gung-ho towards AFL and League anyhow (granted the same can be said for the other Australian cities). I'd like to see where the six-team league with Asia could go, and what countries will take part. Hong Kong is quite likely to have one, and I wouldn't quite rule out Japan though they already have one professional team.

EDIT: And now we had New Zealand outright dominating the Boks 57-0. Yikes! And it seemed like South Africa's getting out of the funk of last year for a moment, after beating Argentina twice and tying Australia in Perth.

edited 16th Sep '17 2:48:27 AM by GrafVonTirol

I'm still wondering where South Africa can go from this, because after That Game with Japan they seem to have lost all direction - and I feel like it's more about the management than the players here, because their coaches just don't seem to know how to work them, no matter the load and force from the pack and how good some of their backs are.

So a couple things happened in recent days...

In what feels like the first in a while, New Zealand actually lost its third Bledisoe Cup match against Australia in Brisbane, after the All-Blacks were close to being upset by the Boks earlier (all things considered, a much better display in Cape Town). Not a bad TRC run for Australia.

Also, this weekend's invitational sevens tournament in San Jose, California saw Chile beat New Zealand 7-0. The latter might be a development team, but that was a heck of an upset regardless.

edited 4th Nov '17 7:17:08 PM by GrafVonTirol

And now France has been picked as host of the 2023 World Cup.

Kind of in two minds of this. On one hand, they have already hosted relatively recently, in 2007, and I would have liked to see it in South Africa given that it's been more than 20 years. On the other hand, France can organize a good tournament, and they can really pack the Stade de France.

Yeah I was surprised. I hate Laporte, he is a smug, shady asshole, so I bet there has been some behind-the-scenes stuff going on.

I would have picked Ireland. Would have given me a reason to visit.

Two interesting things, one happening right-now, the other happening "at the moment".

• Right now is day 2 of the sixth and last round of the group phase of the European Champions Cup, which offers one of the best opportunities to do some math and have some prediction knowledge.

Format is in five pools of four teams. The leader of each pool and the three best 2nd-ranked teams go through to the quarterfinals, with a seeding system based on total points, and then points difference. The leader of each pool is seeded above all 2nd-ranked teams no matter what.

Right now, three pools are over, pools 2, 3 and 5.

• In Pool 2, ASM Clermont topped the charts with 22 points (+61), while double title holders Saracens are second with 18 points (+59).
• In Pool 3, Leinster is on top, being the sole unbeaten team so far with 27 points. Exeter is second with 15 points (+21).
• Pool 5 was topped by the Llanelli Scarlets with 21 points (+39), and Toulon is second with 19 points (+34)

So the global ranking at the moment is:

• 1 - Leinster (leader of pool 3), 27, +83
• 2 - Clermont (leader of pool 2), 22, +61
• 3 - Scarlets (leader of pool 5), 21, +39
• 4 - Ulster (current leader of pool 1), 18, +33
• 5 - Munster (current leader of pool 4), 17, +35
• 6 - Toulon (2nd of pool 5), 19, +34
• 7 - Saracens (2nd of pool 2), 18, +69
• 8 - La Rochelle (current 2nd of pool 1), 16, +28

But you also have...

• Racing (current 2nd of pool 4), 15, +20
• Wasps (current 3rd of pool 1), 12, +14
• Castres (current 3rd of pool 4), 12, -5

Knowing that today are played :

• In Pool 1, Wasps -Ulster and La Rochelle-Harlequins (4th and eliminated)
• In Pool 2, Munster-Castres and Leicester (4th and eliminated)-Racing

Win is 4 points, Draw is 2 pts, 1 bonus point is awarded if 4 tries are scored, and 1 bonus point is awarded if you lose by 7 points or less.

So, team by team, the situation is:

• Munster, Ulster, Racing and La Rochelle go through if they win no matter what - at worst, they will be best seconds. I won't go into details but Ulster, Munster and La Rochelle are also playing to get a good seed and hope for a home QF.
• Castres can go through if they top the pool, which requires them winning with 4 tries in Munster by more than 7 points and without Munster scoring 4 tries (so, without Munster getting a point), WHILE Racing loses in Leicester without getting 2 bonus points in the process. In that situation, Castres and Munsterwill have 17 points but Castres will go through due to personal goal average vs Munster (who they drew at home). However if Racing also has 17 (draw or 2 bonus points), it becomes kind of a nightmare, as it is the total number of points scored between tied teams that matters:
  • Castres would have 2+5 vs Munster and 0+4 vs Racing, so 11
  • Munster would have 2+0 vs Castres, and 1+4 vs Racing, so 8
  • Racing would have 4+1 vs Munster, and 5+1 vs Castres, so 11
    • Which means we go to personal goal average between Racing and Castres, and Racing goes through. Fun, yes?
  • Well, it looks complicated, but Castres is notoriously bad away from home, while Munster in Thomond Park is notoriously hard to beat, so the likelihood of that happening is about 250-to-1.
• Wasps meanwhile can only at best be the 3rd best 2nd ranked team, which means that to go through they need to beat Ulster with 4 tries with a Points Difference of +13 at least, while La Rochelle does not get any point at home against Harlequins, and no two teams in pool 4 get more than 17 points (see above).
  • If La Rochelle gets 17 points, then they win the tie against Wasps due to personal difference (+2)
  • The +13 PD is required to ensure they would win the tiebreaker between them and whoever has 17 points in pool 4.
    • If Racing has 17, then at best they drew at Leicester without BP and as such their PD will remain +20.
    • If Munster has 17, then they lost without BP at home vs Castres (so by 8 points or more), and as such at best their PD will be +27. Even if they are tied with Wasps, they will have scored at most 15 tries (because if they reach 16, they get a BP and go through), while Wasps will at least have 21, so Wasps go through.
  • Again, complicated, but La Rochelle is unlikely to lose at home against the Quins, considering how they obliterated both Wasps and Ulster (+20 & +24) when they visited. So another 250-to-1 long shot.

But wait, there's more! The Saracens can go through, if either:

• La Rochelle scores 2 points or less (so loss or draw with 2BP at home vs the Quins) OR Ulster gets 1 point or less (away @ Wasps). In which case, no matter what, they go through. In that situation, no matter what, the 2nd of pool 1 will remain behind them in the global rankings and at worst they will be 8th
• If the 2nd of pool 1 tops them (both Ulster and La Rochelle end up with 19+ points), THEN they need for the 2nd of pool 4 to also stay behind them, which means Racing not winning in Leicester (possible) OR Munster not winning vs Castres (much less likely)

Racing might fumble at Leicester, so the Sarries might go through. However, it's unlikely that they'll remain 7th due to pool 1, and whoever ends up ranked 8th will have the "privilege" to visit Leinster to get his ass whooped in the Quarterfinals. Seriously, Leinster are mightily impressive at the moment.

Anyway, it starts in about 15 minuts with pool 4.

—-

Now for the other thing, a Major League Rugby has been announed, so a US Rugby league, with 7 teams based in Austin, Houston, NOLA, San Diego, Seattle, Utah (Salt Lake City I assume) and Glendale. It is great for the sports' future, because a relevant American team would bring a ton of ad money everywhere, and the US has everything it needs for the sport to succeed - basically, it has a huge US Football-centered culture which means that the potential is huge with all the athletes who don't make it in the NFL. They'll just have to work on their stamina and learn how to play without body armor.

So, great news, I really hope it succeeds. Apparently the first exhibition games have been successful attendance-wise - and why wouldn't they be? It is a hobby that is far less time-stealing than watching US Football, due to the games lasting 2 hours at most in 99% of the cases (see France-Wales for an exception) with few breaks. Announcers can't rely on frequent ad breaks, so the sponsorship will have to be different, but it works in the UK, Ireland, France, Straya, South Africa and New Zealand, no reason it fails in the most marketed country on the planet.

Well, as of 2019 We can add NYC in the list of MLR teams. So far, things are going well from what I've heard, certainly better than the fiasco called PRO Rugby. The San Diego team was based in Minneapolis then eventually moved to where it is, though why California wasn't one of the first to be considered confounds me a little (Utah and Colorado are no surprise, seeing that they've been hotbeds, but quite a few clubs operated out of California).

Looking at the Six Nations, seems like France is having a pretty tough time while Italy is likely to once again get the spoon.

edited 13th Feb '18 8:55:43 PM by GrafVonTirol

It took a couple months and disrupted a few scheduled matches in the process, but we do have a European qualification ruling at last. Romania, Spain and Belgium were all disqualified for fielding ineligible players. This means Russia, and not Romania, will be at the World Cup next year.