Southeast Asia Thread

The word is "stan", not "simp". "Simp" specifically refers to guys who fall over themselves trying to win the attention of women.

And there was a time, believe it or not, when Dilbert wasn't total garbage. There's a reason it was big in the Nineties.

I just really want Roque and Locsin to be gone from government work when Duterte leaves office/they are not appointed again.

They do a complete 180 on their views on the coup.

Sometimes, I wonder why my parents want me to come back from Canada after my surgery.

Well, the Tatmadaw is charging Suu Kyii... for breaching Myanma import/export laws...

Edited by Ominae on Feb 3rd 2021 at 4:33:04 AM

I mean, if they got Al Capone with tax evasion...

The president Win Myint was charged with violating the Natural Disaster Management Law, in the sense of violating COVID-19 restrictions.

The charges stink of a cover up anyway.

Some article on the man in charge, Min Aung Hlaing.

A lot of articles I uncovered suggest that he has a motive, personal (likely due to being in charge of anti-ARSA ops) and financial (his family is involved in the Myanma economy). Most won't be surprised that they can't get the habit of being a junta.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/general-min-aung-hlaing-is-the-ambitious-army-chief-and-international-pariah-who-seized-power-in-myanmar

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-02-02/myanmar-military-coup-upended-comfortable-status-quo

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Coup/Myanmar-military-appoints-ministers-after-ousting-Suu-Kyi-in-coup

The NGO Justice for Myanmar has more info on Aung Hlaing's financial interests.

https://www.justiceformyanmar.org/stories/who-profits-from-a-coup-the-power-and-greed-of-senior-general-min-aung-hlaing

Edited by Ominae on Feb 3rd 2021 at 8:25:02 AM

There's a juicy Hoist by His Own Petard aspect to it. The military wrote the 2008 constitution, which paved the way for a partial democratisation of the country. They'd figured out that the whole isolationist, rule-by-junta affair was unsustainable in the long run, making them an international pariah and fatally dependent on China.

So they thought that it'd be better to be remembered as the saviours who opened up Myanmar for development and transform their heavy-handed security state into a more sophisticated civil-military structure in the vein of the New Order regime in Indonesia. As they patched things up with Aung San Suu Kyi's bloc, they set up their own client party, the USDP, to maintain a legitimate hold on the legislature, as well as reserving a quarter of the seats for military representatives and keeping the Defence Ministry and other security institutions for themselves.

But here's the snag: the constitution they wrote set up the electoral system as first-past-the-post, rather than proportional. The military legit thought that they were popular enough (after everything they'd done for the country) to ensure a steady USDP plurality that way. But that's just not true: they were an unpopular institution, and their support base was grafted-on and spread piecemeal across the country. The system they built ended up locking in a cycle where the NLD stomped the USDP into the curb harder and harder with each successive election.

But there's a lot more to it, of course. Min Aung Hlaing is a pretty ambitious leader with a lot of bad blood against Aung San Suu Kyi and an unwillingness to bow down to the great powers, be it the US or China. The military's sprawling network of business interests is fairly well-documented, though a coup can't be good for business. And the NLD has made moves to try and get rid of the military's reserved seats, as well as remove the bar to Aung San Suu Kyi holding a proper presidential seat.

Basically this coup is a massive midlife crisis on the part of the military's leadership.

Maybe they'd have been better off buying new cars.

Well China for its part doesn't seem to mind. They are currently blocking the UNSC in condemning the coup.

Russia also says hi to the no sanctions team.

Sounds about right.

Looks like Myanmar is gonna return to pre-2011 status when it comes to the outside world.

I noticed that public sympathy for Aung San Suu Kyi increased again after the coup.

The one thing she still had going for her was wanting to make Myanmar democratic, and that was taken away. Western governments don't quite care for that, especially when the military aren't different in that regard.

And I should note that, from a popular opinions in Myanmar perspective, her views had widespread support.

Which says a lot about Myanmar as a whole, really.

You don't have to like her as a person to agree that overturning the people's votes is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad thing on principle.

I think people are jumping... too quick on the "Aung San Suu Kyi has nothing to do with the massacre against the Rohingya. That is all the fault of the military. She has no control of the country back there, after all. Her hands are tied." bandwagon.

So, I seriously doubt that if she were powerful enough to control the military, it means that the massacre against Rohingya will never happen. Heck, if she somehow able to defeat the military and gain the control of the country back, I also don't think that she will welcome the Rohingya back, and give them proper civil right.

I do agree that her desire to make Myanmar democratic is good. I can give her at least that.

6X, 5X: Of course, China and Russia join the no sanction team. USA is on the sanction team, after all. Opposing the USA no matter what has been a part of their governments' core identity at this point.

Democracy is not always a good vehicle for enforcing human rights. Unfortunately, it's really hard to build a check on democracy that isn't either ineffective or too effective.

The only check on democracy that works is people willing to respect that check.

If the US military decided out of the blue to overthrow the government, no one would ever be able to stop them. But the US military respect (US) democracy, so they won't do that.

Locsin had an interview online and mentioned that the rest of the world (particularly Western countries) destroyed Suu Kyi's credibility and left her at the mercy of the Tatmadaw. He says that he doesn't want to listen to a "white face".

IIRC, he personally met her once upon a time.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/02/04/2075425/locsin-blames-west-destroying-myanmars-aung-san-suu-kyi

What? I'm pretty sure "the west" didn't force her to bothside genocide.

Everything I know about Locsin and other Duterte Cinematic Universe regulars, I learned against my will from my SO's parents (basically Filipino liberal boomers, though technically Gen X) over dinner.

I did not expect to see the words Filipino and liberal boomers together.

Another major arrest was made.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/myanmar-coup-australian-adviser-aung-san-suu-kyi-detained-14126558?

The Tatmadaw detained an Australian who's an advisor to the civilian government.

hard to assess because of lack of internet, but it seems the protests against the Tatmadaw are not going away.

CW: cringe: The US Ambassador to Vietnam, Dan Krintenbrink, released a rap video to welcome the Lunar New Year.

Police in Myanmar are using water cannons, tear gas and live ammo against the protests.

Meanwhile, Singapore issued warnings against anyone planning to join anti-coup protests in the country.

I can't help but wonder what the various rebel factions are doing right about now.

If the Tatmadaw aren't careful, they could have a Yemen on their hands where, during the Arab Spring, the Houthis and the Hirak supported the protesters against Ali Abdullah Saleh. Given where all there are open rebellions in Myanmar, that could put every borderland at risk.