defended

praised soldiers

took only modest steps

It wasn’t enough.

On Monday, Myanmar’s military seized power in a coup, detaining Suu Kyi, elected ministers from her National League for Democracy (NLD) party and others in a predawn raid. Though condemned internationally for defending the military and its campaign against the Rohingya minority, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who spent 15 years under house arrest until 2010 now finds herself again at the generals’ mercy.

The coup underscored the fragility of Myanmar’s decade-old, quasi-democratic transition that many assumed, despite imperfections, would continue with Suu Kyi as head of the civilian government and still-entrenched powers for the military, led by Min Aung Hlaing. But the military was never comfortable with its enduring unpopularity and Suu Kyi’s godlike status among ordinary Burmese, analysts said, despite its role in engineering the country’s opening after half a century of isolationist rule.

Speaking to reporters in Naypyidaw, the capital, NLD chairman and Suu Kyi aide Win Htein called on people to resist the coup in “the same nonviolent way of resistance that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been promoting her entire life,” using her honorific.

The events threaten to destabilize the region, where armed ethnic conflicts plague Myanmar’s borders with China and Bangladesh. And they pose a challenge for President Biden, whose foreign policy team includes Obama administration figures who were involved in and celebrated Myanmar’s once-hopeful democratic awakening.

“There is a lot of bad blood between the commander in chief and Aung San Suu Kyi, it is very personal between the two of them,” said Derek Mitchell, former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar and president of the National Democratic Institute. “A regression like this is a terrible signal.”

Return to the dark days

Residents in Naypyidaw awoke Monday to a communications blackout, with phone calls failing to connect and applications that use mobile Internet down. State-run Myanmar Radio and Television said in a Facebook post that it was unable to broadcast “due to communication problems.” Websites were also down; the Internet monitoring service Netblocks said national connectivity had fallen to 75­ percent of normal levels. Elected NLD lawmakers were barricaded in their guesthouses, guarded by soldiers.

When communications were restored seven hours later, photos and videos showed soldiers in camouflage fatigues and armed with automatic weapons standing in the roads, turning back cars. Some of the enormous highways that run through the purpose-built capital were blocked by military trucks and barbed-wire barricades.

In Yangon, the largest city, a sense of panic appeared to set in.

Residents rushed to buy groceries. Hundreds headed to banks to withdraw cash, reminiscent of the junta era when people would stuff wads of cash in pillowcases or under floorboards. Others removed the ubiquitous red-and-yellow flags of the NLD, which reappeared in recent years after decades as a banned symbol of resistance. Military supporters roamed the streets, cheering, some armed with knives.

A 23-year-old who works for a shipping company, and who declined to give his name for safety fears, said he was disgusted by the military.

“When heard this news this morning, I could not believe they did it,” he said. “When I woke up, I cried.”

The roundup of NLD figures, which party spokesman Myo Nyunt said happened at gunpoint, brought days of tensions to a head just hours before the newly elected parliament was scheduled to sit.

The party won November elections in a landslide, capturing 396 out of 476 seats in the country’s second democratic vote since the end of direct military rule. The military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, won only 33 seats.

The military and its proxy have since been alleging voter fraud, claims the election commission dismissed as baseless. The military said in a broadcast that the politicians were detained “in response to alleged fraud.”

Regardless of the vote, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, was still guaranteed control of key ministries and a quarter of parliamentary seats under the junta-drafted constitution. But the army was enraged that Suu Kyi remained beloved by voters despite her government’s shortcomings, including a battered economy and the raging pandemic, Myanmar experts said.

The military created a system that “worked so well for their nemesis, Suu Kyi,” said David Mathieson, an independent analyst. “So, when you’re unpopular and increasingly irrelevant, you scupper the apparently sweet deal you have for your institution.”

Eyes on the commander in chief

The coup has turned focus on Min Aung Hlaing, the commander in chief of the armed forces. The military on Monday declared a state of emergency for a year, transferring power to Min Aung Hlaing and installing Myint Swe, a former general, as the president of the government.

Min Aung Hlaing, who had been due to retire in July, is widely believed to harbor civilian political ambitions. Unlike his predecessors, who largely shunned the spotlight and relied on the dry dispatches of state media to relay their activities, he adopted a more high-profile role since taking up the position in 2011.

He was a prolific presence on Facebook before he was banned from the platform for hate speech against the Rohingya minority, who his troops targeted in a scorched-earth campaign in 2017 that drove more than a million from their homes. He sat for interviews with international outlets such as the BBC and The Washington Post — unprecedented for the military — and frequently traveled abroad. With his path to a civilian political role dwindling, there was the possibility of him “going from the most powerful man in the country to a retiree,” said Mathieson.

Others noted that Suu Kyi’s attempts to change the constitution to curb the military’s power — a core promise of her successful 2015 campaign — raised personal frictions between her and the commander in chief, despite the military’s ability to veto the changes.

“With the prospects of a second five-year NLD term and increased pressure for a constitutional revision, casual — if not expected — civil-military frictions … have morphed into open conflict,” said Renaud Egreteau, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong who has written books on Myanmar.

Sanctions loom

The White House and Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed alarm and urged the military to reverse course.

“The United States opposes any attempt to alter the outcome of recent elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition, and will take action against those responsible if these steps are not reversed,” the White House said.

Sen. Robert Menendez (D.-N.J.), incoming chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, condemned the detentions, and said Washington and its allies should “impose strict economic sanctions, as well as other measures, against the Tatmadaw and the military leadership” of Myanmar.

Mitchell, the former ambassador, said it was hard to gauge how much support the United States would get from its allies on sanctions. At one time Myanmar was subjected to harsh sanctions that crippled its economy. Those were mostly dropped in 2016 under the Obama administration, but targeted sanctions returned against military leaders for their role in the Rohingya crackdown. One possible target for new sanctions could be military-owned enterprises, which have deep roots in the economy.

“There are all kinds of things that are possible,” Mitchell said. “But the key will be, because the country is so desperate right now, that [actions] don’t hurt the people of the country.”