The General Russia Thread

From what some Russians told me, Prigozhin's actually fairly popular inside of Russia?

If the guy manages to get actual popular support for what he's doing right now, that's gonna be really bad news for the Kremlin.

I'm baffled putin hasn't declared martial law yet and sends his soldiers back to defend russia. The longer this goes on. The more it poisons his position as leader. Sending signals on how weak he is.

Edited by miraculous on Jun 24th 2023 at 6:14:49 AM

Apparently, some pro-separatist groups are taking advantage of this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hrqb6/the_committee_of_bashkir_resistance_a_separatist/

A rep from the Bashkir Resistance, a separatist partisan group in Bashkortostan, Russia, advised anyone in Bashkortostan to leave ASAP. Things are starting.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hruct/another_separatist_group_from_a_region_of_russia/

The Committee of Ingush Independence & Ingush Liberation Army have stated their intent to fight when necessary.

I mean, with how much the propaganda machine hailed them for taking Bakhmut, Wagner’s popularity is to be expected.

Maybe the message he wants to send is "I don’t need a gun to squash a fly on the wall"?

Their literally only a couple of hours away from Moscow. And putin and Medvedev have fled to st. Petersburg. That's the opposite of appears step g.

Tbh going off the equipment that Prigozhin has. It seems he's planned this for months. Wonder if the "attack on wagner" was something he set up himself to start this.

That or Moscow's failed attempt to deal with him preemptively.

Edited by sgamer82 on Jun 24th 2023 at 6:36:33 AM

Got some long twitter chains to read. IMHO very good ones.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672338798691115009

This one explained that Wagner contractors said their goodbyes to their families and told them to keep an eye on the news.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672500870947254273

This one explained the "chaos" within the Ministry of Internal Affairs. According to Telegram posts, the MIA's personnel were too drunk to respond to Wagner intrusions on a Friday night.

Many Russian LEOs are kinda nervous on confronting Wagner contractors should there be a firefight. Especially those assigned to work in Rostov. Gerasimov fled when he heard Wagner contractors were already in the downtown area.

So in the event that Wagner forces actually manage to take over the Kremlin… What next? Would that be good or bad news for Ukraine? Prigo doesn’t seem big on the whole "peace negotiations" thing at least…

One theory I've seen which I personally think is plausible is that Prigozhin would try and pull Russia out of this war by constructing a "stab in the back" myth, i.e. "We could have won, had the people in power not screwed us over".

Because for all of his propaganda, the guy has to be aware that he can't win this war any more than Putin could.

Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Jun 24th 2023 at 4:02:34 PM

Can't Putin also use this coup attempt to call off the war citing the same "stab in the back" myth? Both sides are blaming the other of botching the effectiveness of the invasion, aren't they?

Apparently Putin has fled to St Petersburg, so if he takes Moscow it's going to go full Civil War

Well a few things, firstly keep in mind that for situations like this the defenders are almost always slower then the attackers. Attackers either know exactly who's with them or have a general idea, defenders by contrast are very much in the dark. They need to confirm who's on their side and who isn't, and that makes marshalling their forces take even longer.

Furthermore in this particular case they are at war, "sending his soldiers back to defend Russia" means giving up land to Ukraine. Which is hardly something that's going to be appealing to Putin. He may decide to do it if things get bad enough but it's not going to be his first option.

Overall the speed of the reaction seems pretty normal to me, these things inherently take time and Putin has multiple different issues to consider.

What are the odds Putin might resort to conscription to defend the country?

Probably quite low. Bringing attention to Wagner's successful-looking rebellion might make conscripts want to join Prigozhin instead.

As of 11 minutes ago, the New York Times printed a map of Russia showing that Wagner forces were already past Voronezh, approximately halfway between Rostov on Don and Moscow. I have not seen independent confirmation of that.

I have seen no reports of Putin having left Moscow.

Must say, this is what you get for running regime based on weakening the rule of law.

Must also say, that regardless of whether or not Prigozhin wants to call this a coup or not, really he has to become at least the power behind the throne if he wants to survive. That means defeating the Russian forces protecting Moscow. No idea if he has the capacity to do that or not. That mostly depends on the moral of loyalist Russian soldiers, not so much on the numbers.

My admittedly subjective impression is that the Russian people would back anyone who said they would end the war and the sanctions. But I don't know if Prigozhin wants to do that.

Edited by DeMarquis on Jun 24th 2023 at 10:35:28 AM

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672605975629422599

Rosgvardiya deployed by waiting on the side of the highway in case Wagner shows up.

Edited by Ominae on Jun 24th 2023 at 7:35:25 AM

It's wild seeing the plot of Modern Warfare 2 play out in real life. Like absolutely strange.

Wrong Modern Warfare. It's the first game that had a Russian Civil War in the 21st century.

Oh. Sorry my bad. I thought it was the second one that had Makarov's take over.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hu6ha/translated_video_allegedly_showing_a_member_of

Translated statement of a VDV paratrooper who joined Wagner 'cause he's pissed at what Russian MOD's doing (being cannon fodder). He hates the Kadyrov with a passion and calls them Tik Tokers.

Edited by Ominae on Jun 24th 2023 at 8:12:54 AM

That's also why their just....being let in without much conflict. Being Cannon Fodder isn't the best recipe to ensure you know will actually defend the guys who think your expandable.

And that's Modern Warfare 3.

More on topic: if Prigozhin succeeds in ousting Putin, what will the international community do?

Edited by HallowHawk on Jun 24th 2023 at 8:17:34 AM

Uh ....

I don't know. Like I expect if that happens. We'll see a power play first. As he tries to consolidate.

I'd imagine NATO and China are busy trying to prep for worst-case scenarios if Prigozhin makes it to the throne, but at the moment it's hard to tell what the fuck will happen

Interesting...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hsztx/translated_version_rostov_people_approaching_the/

People in Rostov are welcoming Wagner in the city. The contractors are happy to see this.