Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital
- over 100,000 by some counts
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.
EDIT (2/24/2022)
This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.
Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map will help track the latest developments.
Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.
Edited by Tabs on Mar 20th 2022 at 4:26:26 AM
@Arctic: Well, it's easier to catch flies with honey than with vinegar and much of Russia is in a pretty sorry state & will be even more so with sanctions. We can't make the fundamental NATO-Russia and Ukraine-Russia disagreements go away, but I think we can help put them on a low simmer and for that we'll need carrots. All take and no give hasn't ever worked in politics.
Re: Shootdown: I think the really important bit is: BBC also points out that the deaths of only two Russian generals (not including Botashev) have been confirmed out of the nine claimed by Ukrainian officials. Looks like folks are being a little too trusting of Ukrainian sources.
@math: Might have something to do with: Russia was able to break through the Ukrainian line at two axes around Popasna, one towards Yakolivka, cutting the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, one from Svitlodarsk.- Russian troops entered Lyman and control part of the town. Russian gains in the past week or so from Popasna are significant and will likely force Ukraine to recommit forces and withdraw from several areas to prevent potential encirclement. I also expect an assault on either Soledar or Bakhmut itself in the coming weeks...
Otherwise, regarding my point about Russian war plans from before: Dmitry Medvedev blasts Italy’s peace plan for Ukraine even though Dmitry Peskov says Russia hasn’t seen it: “It seems that it was prepared not by diplomats, but by local political scientists who have read provincial newspapers and operate only with Ukrainian fakes”
He said that the Kremlin hasn’t seen it, specifically.
Edited by Smeagol17 on May 24th 2022 at 6:30:11 PM
Here's the thing, Septimus - Putin and his cronies cannot be trusted. How can we be sure that the potential Marshall Plan for Russia or the world lifting sanctions wouldn't be used by him to just spend it on military again na have him invade Ukraine again or some other country to forcefully annex it? Putin does not care about anyone but himself. To him, even his own people are expendable.
Unless the world can present an offer so tempting that Russians themselves would deliver Putin neatly tied up to Hague, I would abstain from any offers of lifting sanctions or something akin to Marshall Plan now.
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
x3
That certainly explains why they'd need operational mobility, especially for conducting a retreat of maneuver elements, I'm just more curious about the choice of platform.
Edited by math792d on May 24th 2022 at 5:32:06 PM
Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.
"They only exist online." I would be carefull with claims like that(in general maybe not in this particular case). Qanon was "just a bunch of online weirdos" once too. Things on internet are in the end created by real people (and bots, but lets ignore that in this case).
Edited by Risa123 on May 24th 2022 at 8:40:24 AM
A Self-inflicted Disaster
Any Marshall Plan for Russia will have to be tied with a thorough de-Putinization of Russia. Putting de-Putinization on the back burner will just mean they will try again later.
"Enshittification truly is how platforms die"-Cory Doctorow
De-Putinization? What would in be, practically speaking? Not like we have statues of Putin to take down. But maybe statues of Pushkin can substitute, as in Ukraine...)
Edited by Smeagol17 on May 24th 2022 at 6:51:22 PM
A Self-inflicted Disaster
I think de-Putinization was not a good choice of words. I mean that the country will have to go through a process where authoritarianism is purged, so they won't try again, even with a different leader.
Edited by minseok42 on May 25th 2022 at 12:54:15 AM
"Enshittification truly is how platforms die"-Cory Doctorow
No one can guarantee that, for any country. Maybe disbanding the military and permanent American bases can, but I don’t think Americans are ready for the expense.
I know that Putin can't be trusted with anything. What I am saying though is that the discussion so far - including, admittedly, my own - has been mostly centered on sticks (sanctions and their relief, weapons supplies). I think that to get something that can last for more than a few years, you need to consider carrots. Especially if folks are right that a severe defeat in Ukraine will lead to Putin's overthrow. I don't find this outcome probable but if it happens, it makes sense to not immediately antagonize the new leadership unless it's obvious that they are no better than Putin.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Dunno why, but I have a bad feeling about that statement from security council secretary. As in „Russians trying to the bitter end to commit cultural genocide, if not actual genocide on Ukrainians” thing.
APCs are needed to fight on parity with Russia because of the makeup of Russia's army, essentially. The Russian Ground Forces are highly mechanized, all of their infantry is organized into what are called motor rifle units. Basically, every infantry unit is transported by and fights with an APC or an Infantry Fighting Vehicle, basically an APC with a much larger gun. This gives their infantry higher levels of tactical mobility and staying power versus regular infantry. A vehicle can obviously move troops around much faster than those troops could move on foot, and most Russian armor is able to drive right across the bottom of a river without the need to stop and set up equipment to do so like NATO vehicles would need to do. The optical systems on these vehicles give units limited night fighting capabilities, and their armor enables traditional Russian strategies like the "mobile defense", which can make their troops difficult to dislodge from an area.
Ukraine's infantry is mostly on foot, relying on lightly armored trucks and civilian vehicles to get around. They've made efforts to mechanize their forces, and have had a lot of success in doing so, but Russia started mechanizing their infantry during WW 2 so they had a bit of a head start. Now that the battle lines have shifted towards Russia, into areas where it's easier for the Russian military to sustain its vehicles and keep them running, Ukraine is likely looking to match that capability.
They should have sent a poet.
I guess I should have clarified, that's on me - I'm familiar with the distinction between motorized and mechanized forces and their utility, what I was curious about was what the rationale may have been for Ukraine trying to fish for APC's rather than, for example, IFV's, and if it might be journalists not being familiar with the terminology or perhaps logistical concerns/other factors that made them request APC's specifically.
Edited by math792d on May 24th 2022 at 7:33:04 PM
Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.
More Michael Kofman podcast! Here
- The Popasna breakthrough is worth noting. Russia still has substantial offensive abilities and won't easily be forced back.
- Likewise, their tactics have much improved. Probably a consequence of the tremendous losses in the first part of the war.
- There are questions of how much strength the Ukrainian military has both in the Donbas and the Kherson area.
- The Kharkiv frontline is quite a long way from Russian lines of communication, so it's difficult for Ukraine to threaten them from there.
- It is indicative that the Ukrainian military has suffered significant attrition and exhaustion, which would explain why they are losing territory.
- It's not necessarily a long-term thing given reinforcements (both Western weapons and additional drafting of soldiers) but it's unclear where they will be used.
- While this war is going to set the Russian military back by years, they'll recover.
- People are overly focused on tactical things like videos or this town being captured or that river crossing failing, which give a misleading picture.
- The long-term path of the war has not substantially changed. The long-term force balance still favour Ukraine, but anyone thinking that recapturing the lost territory will be easy is overly optimistic.
I would assume this is a factor, they're likely interested in a mix of APCs and IF Vs but it's easier just to say APCs because that's a term people are more likely to know and it communicates their intent well enough.
They should have sent a poet.
That Guy
The honest truth is Ukraine can afford to give ground, and Defense in Depth as a Strategy has worked well for them as well.
Basic rule of Warfare always has been "Force the enemy to fight on your terms, never allow them to fight on theirs." Falling back can draw Russian troops and vehicles into minefields, ambushes, prepared defensive lines, etc.
Russia is pushing heavily and gaining ground, but they're still paying for every meter in destroyed gear and the lives of hundreds of soldiers.
Edited by Pendrake on May 24th 2022 at 6:01:45 AM
Semper Fi. Semper Paratus. Vigilo Confido.
One thing that I've been sort of wondering about the whole "Putin will only use any peace deal to buy time and prepare for another invasion" thing - why, exactly, is the assumption that time is on his side? Ukraine could as well use the time to rebuild and rearm. Not saying I necessarily believe this, but I'm not sure why all the argument is automatically in favor of the opposite point of view.
Edited by nrjxll on May 24th 2022 at 8:31:10 AM
Edited by CookingCat on May 24th 2022 at 6:33:18 AM
That Guy
Turkey's probably gonna bitch about it. Depends how flexible the Montreux Treaty actually is there.
Semper Fi. Semper Paratus. Vigilo Confido.
Anka Aquila
The fact that, as previously mentioned, Putin has walked himself into a trap of his own doing since he can't declare war without destroying home support nor can he just attempt a peace deal, because that will end up with the same result. All he can do is keep this "special military operation" going for as long as he can and latch onto power a while longer.
Edited by raziel365 on May 24th 2022 at 6:52:01 AM
Instead of focusing on relatives that divide us, we should find the absolutes that tie us.
In the name of being honest
According to the media report, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has approved the idea of protecting Ukrainian commercial fleet with UK warships. She is now seeking the U.S. approval for this, the Times said.
Yeah, nah, this isn't something that any of the linked sources says. Can we, iunno, maybe cross-check our sources before suggesting that the UK is making serious plans to shoot at the Russian Navy in the Black Sea? Just putting that out there.
Edited by eagleoftheninth on May 24th 2022 at 6:58:00 AM
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/uwipeo/brief_video_of_lu_who_is_a_taiwanese_volunteer/
There's a video in Taiwanese reddit of a Taiwanese volunteer fighting in the frontline. Name is Lu.
As somebody who was concerned about this, I actually saw a thing in the BBC live feed earlier today where a government source specifically stated the UK is not going to send warships to the Black Sea.
Edit:
This is true, but it doesn't really answer my question. What I'm wondering is, most people think that Putin will just use any peace deal to build up and buy time for another invasion. I certainly agree with that - he's utterly untrustworthy - but the assumption that a ceasefire to rebuild automatically favors Russia over Ukraine is the part I'm wondering about. What's the basis for that assumption?
I'm not arguing the opposite, BTW - I'm just curious, since this seems like an automatic assumption in most discussions that I've never seen the actual argument for.
Edited by nrjxll on May 24th 2022 at 9:15:02 AM
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3926013
Strange that there's an ex-Taiwanese marine who's fighting in Ukraine under the legion. There's an ex-MP soldier who wasn't allowed to join.
I wonder if any of our more tactically savvy posters could talk about why Ukraine might need APC's specifically. I can understand needing transportation, and especially cross-country transportation, but what's driving up demand for APC's in particular? Protection from artillery shrapnel without needing to logistically support a vehicle with heavier armaments?
Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.