North Sudan and South Sudan

In 9 July 2011, South Sudan formally declared independence from Sudan after a referendum where 98.8% voted in favour of said independence.

Being one of the most recent nations (and the most recent to join the UN), there are considerable challenges.

With recent problems going on in Sudan (see these Arab Spring posts for context), future problems might arise between these two nations.

Relevant to the situation between them is the region of Abyei, which remains disputed by both nations (though a ceasefire was signed a few days before independence), especially if we consider that "an important oil pipeline, the Greater Nile Oil Pipeline, travels through the Abyei area from the Heglig and Unity oil fields to Port Sudan on the Red Sea via Khartoum" and that "the pipeline is vital to Sudan’s oil exports which have boomed since the pipeline commenced operation in 1999."

Here's the statement provided just a few hours ago by the Vice-President of South Sudan in the UN.

Like with every young nation, there is an increasing insecurity, with a strong presence of ethnic conflicts.

So:

• What are the alternatives to an oil pipeline which crosses a disputed territory?
• Will the ethnic and hunger-based conflicts prevail? For how long? (The main affected areas are the Juba city and Jonglei)

Well the alternative is a massively expensive pipeline to either Ethiopia or Kenya. It's a terrible plan, but they like it since it means they aren't so reliant on the North.

Well considering Kenya is actually stable and prosperous, it might be more worth it in the future in ways other than being less dependant on Khartoum.

Um... stable. <glances at Nairobi> Al-Shabab seem to be trying to work on that one. <_<

It's stable by African nation standards.

Here's the article I was thinking of

It looks like the Kenya pipeline is the best option but probably won't happen for stupid political reasons.

The Ethiopian pipeline seems to be the only other viable option, then, in case politics interfere.

Ethiopian pipeline is less practical by virtue of Ethiopia not having direct access to the sea. They would either have to go through Kenya anyway or Djibouti.

Or Somalia.

and we all know how that'd go.

In a fair world, they could go through Somaliland, but because it is an unrecognized country, that could create issues.

Somalialand would be the safer way to go, since it has a kinda government and might be able to provide security.

Trouble is, it is barely recognized and dangerously close to Somalia. There are a variety of scenarious which don't bode well here: Firstly, Somaliland could collapse internally, thus cutting off South Sudan. Somalia, in 20 or 30 years time, could get its shit together and annex it. Or it could be claimed by another power. Not to mention, the pipeline could become a target of terrorists. Islamic terrorism in particular is not approving of Christian states separating from Muslim ones, Bin Laden was most angry by the independence of East Timor.

The trouble is, without international recognition and/or an inherent strategic value, there is unlikely to be any kind of response.

I meant that it was better than Somalia main, the best way for such a pipeline would probably be though Kenya.

So, I've been checking out South Sudan's foreign relations. The Ethiopian pipeline seems to be the most viable one, since Ethiopia was among the first countries that recognized them (by the time Kenya stabilises after the attack, they'll also be able to talk about this, since Kenya was also among the first to recongnize them).

Also, both Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti are located in Eastern Africa, which is where their foreign policy is oriented towards establishing full bilateral relations in order to not be so reliant on North Sudan. In the case of Kenya, their relations might get stronger if South Sudan introduces the Swahili language.

They have all three options relatively available and within grasp. It's a matter of time and strength.

edited 27th Sep '13 5:26:54 PM by Quag15

USA to evacuate South Sudan embassy, issues travel warning.

Alleged coup attempt by vice-president Riek Machar threatens to open deep ethnic divisions amid reports of bloodbath in Juba.

So, yeah, looks like there's big conflict between the president, Salva Kiir, and the vice-president. The latter seems to be a Dragon with an Agenda while the former doesn't like critics.

Also, there are ethnic divisions, thousands of people asking to become refugees, and hundreds of dead people.

(sigh) Why does something like this always have to happen?...

And somewhere in Khartoum, there is schadenfreude being had.

Though to be honest, this kind of thing is almost a right of passage for any African state.

Why?

I'd guess it's because pretty much all of the borders that were drawn by the colonial powers ignored much if not all of the ethnic and tribal divisions, lumping together ethnic/cultural groups that in actuality have little in common between them beyond their dark skin, tribalism, and the (arguably defined) shamanism of their religions.

Well yes, but why does that result in such things as a Vice President scheming against the the actual President?

Because South Sudan came to be in an independence referendum and a general agreement that Khartoum had to go. Now that they've won their freedom, they have to set up a government. Cue musical chairs.

As part of a wider scheme to reorganize the military and cut out in-fighting, President Salva Kiir sacked over 100 Generals in February. Naturally, a lot of these people and their supporters were rather pissed at this move. In July, Kiir sacked the entire cabinet, including Riek Machar, who accused Kiir of trying to make himself a dictator.

Add into the mix the fact that most of these people are from different tribal groups and that this is a land where tribal loyalties supersede national affiliation(people are far more dependent upon tribal apparatus that state apparatus, mostly because there largely is no state apparatus outside the military), and you only really have one probable outcome here.

We're bound to have north Sudan sticking their fingers into the pie in some manner too, given that they're fighting over the division of oil revenue from the former united Sudan.

edited 19th Dec '13 2:24:44 AM by TheBatPencil

Rebels control Bor, the Jonglei state capital, says military. Also, defections.

How does a brand new country have hundreds of generals? How big is South Sudan's army/militia that they would have so many formations and staff positions to require that many flag officers? Or are these mostly political appointments?