Tensions in the Southern Caucasus

. . . Aren't you, as an actual Russian, best poised to anwser that question?

Probably not. Putin has shown a consistent habit of letting his clients get curbstomped by their enemies when there's too much of a chance that Russia will be dragged into a conflict to spend lives on said clients' behalf.

Namely, how he drew down Russian aid to the East Ukrainians after they recklessly shot down an airliner with the SA Ms he provided, and neglected to have Russian-operated air defenses open fire to defend Syria when Israel and the US bombed the Assad regime.

Not quite right. Russia did those things for different reasons. With regards to Israeli airstrikes, that mostly hurt Iran and Hezbollah, which while allies are also rivals for control of Damascus...and Moscow is friendly with Bibi to boot.

With Ukraine, that is true, but they've also not left them to be completely curbstomped.

Russia won't mind getting dragged in if it gets something out of it otherwise.

I think Russia might seek a third option of taking the land for itself (not officially but practically), actually. Why do I say this? First of all, according to the treaty, the Russian FSB will be the ones to control the Azeri corridor to Nakhchivan rather than Baku or Yerevan. They have also pushed back pretty damn hard about the rumors that the ceasefire will allow for Turkish joint patrols. They don't want Ankara anywhere near this.

They also will be the only reason why Artsakhi Armenians don't get wiped off the map by Baku.

I can see, in the future, the possibility that Russia expands the zone of its peacekeeping to include everything within the former borders of the AO and then governing it more or less as a UN Mandate (the treaty calls for the peacekeeping to be observed by the UN). The land around it goes back to Baku, so the Azeris get a win, Armenians don't get ethnically cleansed, so they win, and Russia gets a hell of a piece of leverage in the region overall.

Of course, whether this sticks, given that Pashinyan might get overthrown in the next couple of days or weeks, may make all of this moot.

Hey, I can want to get a second opinion . Especially since Shinra has a far better grip on the mindset of the Kremlin than I do, as opposed to whatever it is the general populace thinks.

Honestly a Kosovo style situation where the area is under UN control with Russia playing the role that NATO played in Kosovo might well be the best solution.

Thing is part of the Kosovo operation’s legitimacy came from Russia signing onto it, which in this flip situation would mean NATO signing on...

Pashinyan's trying to get the Armenians to cool down and explain that their situation could have been worse if no treaty was in place.

The NKR leaders also share the same opinion.

This might actually be the first time since a long time that Russia has a positive impact in geopolitics.

Yeah. I am quite willing to believe that letting Azerbaijan do its thing would have led to Armenian Genocide 2.0

I wonder how COVID affected the fighting. Disease was historically the greatest killer of armies, peaking in WWI with the Spanish Flu.

What about the large chunk of Armenia that is essentially cut off without aid or supplies being able to go through the 5KM corridor?

The Lachin corridor will remain under Armenian control, guarded by Russian peacekeepers.

The Multilateral Armistice Agreement states:

We the President of Azerbaijan, I. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N.V. Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin state the following:

• A complete ceasefire and end to all hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 00:00 Moscow time on 10 November 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the parties stop at the current territorial positions they occupy.

• Agdam District returns to the Republic of Azerbaijan by 20 November 2020.

• Along the frontline in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor there will be a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation with 1960 military personnel with small arms, 90 armoured personnel carriers, 380 military vehicles and other special equipment.

• The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh. The duration of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic renewal for the next 5-year period if none of the parties state otherwise 6 months in advance.

• In order to improve the effectiveness of control over the implementation by the Parties to the conflict agreements, a peacekeeping command post is being installed in order to enforce the ceasefire.

• The Republic of Armenia will return to Azerbaijan the Kalbajar District by 15 November 2020, and the Lachin District by 1 December. The Lachin corridor (5 km (3.1 mi) wide) which will provide access from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia remains under the control of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation. The town of Shusha located within the corridor will remain in Azeri possession. By agreement of the Parties, a construction plan will be determined in the next three years for a new route of movement along the Lachin corridor, providing a link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to guard this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles, and goods in both directions.

• Internally displaced persons and refugees return to the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under the control of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees.

• The exchange of prisoners of war is to be made, hostages, and other detainees as well as the remains of casualties.

• All economic activity and transport links in the region are to be unrestricted. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety of transport links between western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to organise the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Transport control is carried out by the bodies of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia. By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new infrastructure linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with regions of Azerbaijan is to take place.

Posting the terms of the treaty here, for reference. Sourced from Wikipedia.

Assuming that there won't be any jingoist regime changes in Armenia, this is really looking like it's going well, in the sense that an almost certainly genocidal war has been averted and a region has been more or less stabilised, with peacekeepers and semi-legitimacy provided by 3rd parties.

Edited by KnitTie on Nov 12th 2020 at 1:51:18 AM

I mean it's very much up in the air if Pashinyan's government survives. Even if it doesn't get swept away in a revolution, losing a war of what the people see is an existential magnitude ain't great for the next election.

Yeah, Pashinyan's likely done for, but that doesn't mean his successor will have to restart the war. He can drag his feet, he can talk big and do nothing in the end, he can do a lot of sabre rattling but at a safe distance - it's not like a full-on war with Baku is something that Armenia can win nowadays without Russia being there to do all the actual heavy lifting. And Russia has shown they aren't exactly eager to get involved.

Plus it's not like the Armenian/Artsakh military is in any shape to continue pursuing the war.

(The documentation likely didn't cover all battlefield losses, so it's possible that both sides lost more stuff than listed on that page. But just the fact that the Azerbaijanis had more documentation is pretty indicative of who's in control of the battlefield.)

The Azeris' military spending is several times that of Armenia. It's not a surprise that the side with much more of everything ended up doing better.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/getting-ceasefire-peace-nagorno-karabakh

An ICG article on what else can be done to resolve the NKR issue...

Armenians are leaving Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh en masse.

Edit: Can't spell

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Nov 12th 2020 at 9:56:53 AM

You might want to change "living" to "leaving" per the headline: "Mass Exodus As Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh".

I can't blame them. If the status of the NKAO is not resolved in the next 5 years in favor of Artsakhi Armenians, the general consensus is Baku will wait out the 5 year timeline and then just move in. Given that no change was made in the last 30 years except through war, I can understand that having hope is a bad bet.

It's still ethnic cleansing, but at least they get to live. Which is a sad bar to have for success, but...

The only thing that makes me pause from saying its a foregone conclusion are the Russian peacekeepers, given their history of not leaving once they arrive. One could see them pursue borderization like with South Ossetia. Armenia, to satisfy Baku, can no longer have a hand in its administration like it has these last 30 years, but I would not be surprised if Russia sets up a de facto protectorate so that the Artsakhi can stay where they are (and give Russia a strategic position in the South Caucausus as a buffer between Yerevan and Baku and a tripwire against Turkey). Given how veeeery apologetic they were for accidently shooting one Russian Hind, I don't think Aliyev is interested in pissing off Moscow even with Turkey's backing. Or his own popular support, victory, and money, and weapons for that matter.

What worries me, however, is that it seems France is interested in still getting involved in resolving the issue. Given the current tensions between France and the Muslim world as a whole, I feel like this would be a terrible idea...

Wait, what? France wants to get involved? Why? To fuck over the Moosleems to show them who's boss?

Erdogan and Macron have been trying to outdo each other for a while on who gets to revive their country's 19th century imperial designs over the Mediterranean. Not sure what kind of leverage he thinks he has in the Caucasus, though.

Probably very little. But there is a rather large Armenian community in France, so even if it comes to nothing, he still has a reason to attempt it.

Russia will probably let them try too, so long as it doesn't hurt Moscow's interests.

Honestly France joining the Russian effort could give the Russians the legitimacy to go with the protectorate style idea you were talking about, same way Russian gave legitimacy to Kosovo.

Now if France instead wants to be the one calling the shots...

Edited by Silasw on Nov 13th 2020 at 11:52:47 AM

Good point. I wonder which way Macron will choose.

Though speaking of the French, it seems Moscow has invited them and the US (and thus all the players of the OSCE Minsk Group) over to discuss the future of Nagorno Karabakh. Given that all three have inclinations toward Armenia in one way or another, I wonder if Baku is celebrating too early. Then again, as the old saying goes, possession is 9/10 of the law...