The Latin America thread (VE, BR, AR, CU, MX...)

https://www.newsweek.com/this-election-may-give-china-new-latin-america-friend-taiwans-expense-1792571

Paraguayan elections are upcoming. Whoever wins will determine if they'll recognize Taipei or if they'll cut ties with them and go to Beijing.

It's not foolish at all.

Re-taking Crimea would be extremely difficult given that Russia has spent years fortifying it and it would be a predominantly ground operation because Ukraine lacks the mean to launch any kind of sustained amphibious or air assault. It would be no Kherson, there'd be a very real chance of failure and all experts I've heard agree that it's not happening anytime soon if ever.

And as concessions go it's a relatively low-cost one, unlike the Donbas regions it wouldn't cripple Ukraine economically. Ukraine spent years without Crimea and they were fine. I'm sure Ukraine would be loathe to part with any of its territory but compared to the horrific costs of the war both economically and on its people I think such a deal would very likely be a net-positive.

Admittedly this is mostly hypothetical, both Russia and Ukraine are currently putting forth maximalist demands but if that were to change (presumably Russia would have to move first, they are after all the party that started the war) then a deal where Crimea remains in Russian hands might very well be the best route to peace.

Edit: Wait a minute, this isn't the Ukraine thread. I realize that Lula is a Lat Am leader but surely this would fit better there?

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Apr 7th 2023 at 4:57:49 AM

It should be report to tht threat to discuss a potencial crimea ofense in general rather than whatever merit Lula proposal have.

And in this case im not giving lula much benefit given his tepid bothsiding and before that his suport of chavismo even it was more than clear it was a corrupt nest of authoritarians just show a very tendecy of the left to play the role of coward centrism the moment the shoe is on someone else but US.

I liked he was chosen over bolsonaro but in international matter, I find him lacking and wanting. not a surprise really.

Speaking of Lula, does he have a majority in parliament, even a narrow one? If not, what are his chances of getting anything done (regarding Amazonia, notably)?

Edited by Lyendith on Apr 7th 2023 at 1:56:27 PM

Yeah, I posted it there.

I think whatever flaws the South American Left may or may not have a good peace proposal doesn't become less good just because one of them is proposing it. Lula is wrong to push false equivalencies but he's right that the only way this conflict is going to end is with a negotiated peace.

Crosspost from Ukraine and courtesy of Ominae: South American volunteers (Venezuelans, Bolivians, and Brazilians) allowed to form the Simon Bolivar Battalion.

I crossover this from the venezuela thread:

"Tibisay lucena, ex president of CNE for 14 years have die yesterday of cancer at the age of 63 years old.

She was on the list of sanciónate functionaries by US(it look she escape it the best way she could), maybe accused her of fraud to favour chavismo in the election and help to undermind democracy and favor human right violations. Also know by her polemic declarations like the time sahe said ucranian woman who were in a hospital and have to run away from being bomb were fake news.

As you can see her death is a broken base in many ways, the left lament her pasing while making here cheer for her death. just another day here in venezuela. "

Financial Times: Chile’s president unveils plan to nationalise lithium supply.

Sounds more like a private-public partnership than a straight up nationalisation if we go by Boric's wording, then again it wouldn't surprise me if some people didn't get the difference between the two.

I wonder if that will be enough to stop a US backed coup. Private interests are still involved but with how rapacious capitalism is that may very well be insufficient.

Then again, recent US actions have been decidedly mixed. We played a key role in the coup against Evo Morales but we also intervened in favor of Lula in order to support Brazilians democracy. Anything could happen, which is certainly a step up from the Cold War.

Why would Boric get any sort of attempt to overthrow him now?

...Because he's semi nationalizing a crucial resource? I'm not being snide when I say that I'm confused by this question. It shouldn't be a mystery why that would be threatening.

Defending economically profitable access to resources is a motivation for imperialism that is older then literally any technology one cares to name.

because it sound like nonesense, venezuela have being dealing with nearly every single US enemy and aside some stupid shitty atempt Maduro is fine and dandy.

This isnt the cold war, there isnt any singular view on how to deal with latin america meaning US will flip flop between trying to be diplomatic and hardline at any given moment, also coup dosent start out of thin air, there was general discontent with Evo for right wing to size on then(and fuck it up of course), the same cant be said for Boric.

I would also say that coup-proofing is better understood nowadays, so one can usually minimise a chance of successful coup if given some opportunity to prepare.

Ok two things, firstly I literally said it wasn't the Cold War in my original post. If you're going to criticize my position then maybe actually respond to it instead of what you imagine it to be.

Furthermore, pointing to Venezuela failing to fall to coup as evidence that coups can never succeed is absurd. That's like pointing to the existence of Cuba during the Cold War and assuming that the US could never remove leftist leaders. History shows that leaders in Latin American countries are eminently coup-able. Maybe Boric will also survive, or maybe there won't be any attempts because he isn't completely nationalizing it. But assuming that it can't happen and that it has no chance of success is baseless and clear wishful thinking .

I stand by my position, asking why they would want to coup Boric is very strange. It's never impossible, particularly not in South America.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Apr 22nd 2023 at 5:14:27 AM

"If you're going to criticize my position then maybe actually respond to it instead of what you imagine it to be."

Sorry but saying that while your argument is "it happen before so it can happen" or saying US have move on but not that much is kinda "is not cold war except it is", hell right now US start to warm their relationship with Venezuela again because the war of ukraine. Kinda far from deposing leaders of decades ago.

Like it is posible? yeah but right now it feel very much like asking when Putin will declare soviet union 2.0. It is close to a political what if specially since Boric is not against doing buissness with US.

Personally, I doubt the US will going to bother with Chile, unless its government turns out like Venezuela. Considering the bad history with that country, it would be really foolish to even consider in the first place.

Fourthspartan, I'll answer why a coup won't happen if Boric decides to fully nationalise lithium (which again, doesn't seem to be the case going by his wording) with an actual pessimistic assesment born from seeing all others attempts so far.

To be blunt, nationalising only generates a short term influx of cash that inevitably gets lost in the web of corruption that plagues many of our countries, and by the time the high demand of a product goes down, the ill use of said influx of cash leads to a recession and to the state having now to sell those companies at a lower price because of the instability it has created, which is when foreign companies decide to act like vultures and haggle for whatever they want.

In other words, unless Boric decides to start cleaning house, any attempt of nationalisation is just long term economic suicide.

Edited by raziel365 on Apr 24th 2023 at 3:15:16 AM

Yeah, is easier to see Boric struggling with nationalizing and if the decision is unpopular than beliving another coup will be in order by US, the later really demand US is still in cold war mode which is hilarious given how is negociating with such weak but opently corrupt venezuela.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/05/083dad245906-pro-taiwan-candidate-pena-wins-paraguay-presidential-race.html

Pena won the presidential elections in Paraguay. He said that he'll maintain Paraguayan ties with Taiwan.

Remember the backlash against the PIPA and SOPA acts in the US? The Brazilian government and Supreme court want a piece of this fuck up as well with the PL 2630/2020 AKA the Fake News Law.

Also, The Federal Public Ministry wants clarifications from Google and Meta, due to them positioning against the law.

Right-wing parties win a majority in Chile's constitutional council election (Spanish link)

How red can Boric's forehead get?

A full 35% of votes were won just by the Republicanos, which is Jose Kast's far-right party. I have a feeling the effort to excise Pinochet's influence from the Chilean constitution may have backfired a tad

Edited by somerandomdude on May 8th 2023 at 4:21:40 AM

The first attempt and its failure was probably still haunting, too.

The article says the bill was proposed three years ago so… what’s the current government’s position on it? Since apparently the current Chamber of Deputies is a clusterfuck with no clear majority (so much so that Wikipedia pages in different languages give me completely different numbers ont who’s government/independent/opposition >.>)

Ecuadorian president Guillermo Lasso dissolves the legislature and triggers early election. Apparently a bid to avoid impeachment. Spanish link.

¡Latinoamérica sigue ganando!