A thread to discuss electric vehicles and hybrid technology. No politics, please.
Technology, commercial aspects and marketing are all on-topic.
- Companies (e.g. Tesla Inc.) are only on-topic when discussing their electric vehicle products and research, not their wider activities. The exception is when those wider activities directly impact (or are impacted by) their other business areas - e.g. if electric vehicle development is cut back due to losses in another part of the business.
- Technology that's not directly related to electric vehicles (e.g. general battery research) is off-topic unless you're discussing how it might be used for vehicles.
- If we're talking about individuals here, that should only be because they've said or done something directly relevant to the topic. Specifically, posts about Tesla do not automatically need to mention Elon Musk. And Musk's views, politics and personal life are firmly off-topic unless you can somehow show that they're relevant to electric cars.
Also, posting this late, so sorry for any misspellings I might have left in there.
(Mod edited to replace original post)
Edited by Mrph1 on Mar 29th 2024 at 4:14:39 PM
Lost in Space
The software sees in 360 degrees with far better total resolution than a human eyeball, but doesn't have the human's ability to focus intently on a single object to get lots of detail out of it. This is what training is for, and every time someone defaces a sign or puts up a hologram of a dog or something like that, it learns what is and is not real.
It is illegal to deface or fake highway signs, you know. Just in case that wasn't clear.
Edited by Fighteer on Feb 19th 2020 at 10:26:18 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
You don't need to explain machine learning to the person whose PhD research is in the area, just as a reminder.† ![[lol]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/lol2v12_4863.png "[lol]"){kind=small}
Sure, defacing signs is illegal, but I've seen comparable stuff just from dirt and neglect, so it's not an unreasonable outcome.
† Also out of pedantry, the software in the car is doing absolutely no learning; the computational requirements for that are just plain infeasible (I haven't checked but it's pretty certain that the image recognition in question is some variation of a convolutional neural network, and once you're going all-in on that you're putting kilowatts of power into GPUs as a baseline) and would also be insane—you want the software in the car to be static and not learning because if it deviates and learns incorrectly it would introduce aberrant behaviour. The plus side is that feeding values through neural networks is pretty simple.
Edited by RainehDaze on Feb 19th 2020 at 4:14:59 PM
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I wonder what percent of human drivers were fooled by those changes.
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
How many people on the road actually obey the signs to begin with? Maybe this is just me in California, but I'm honestly shocked when I see someone actually obeying the posted limit. 85 is like fast-lane standard.
Figure of Hourai
Going by the screenshot of the defacing, you'd have to be really bad at interpreting it to somehow think any
of
these
look like 85
I know. People forget that self-driving cars do not have to meet some arbitrarily high safety standard to make sense. They just have to be safer than humans would in the same circumstances. That isn't hard.
Lost in Space
@Raineh: I know the cars aren't learning on their own, but all that data is fed back to Tesla for them to train the core learning algorithms. In fact, right now the biggest bottleneck they have is in that training process, which is why they're hiring so many AI engineers and building a whole new platform to "sandbox" the training environment.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
I wonder what on Earth they plan to do via "hire more people".
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Lost in Space
Do more things? Tesla's been recruiting like crazy lately because it's not enough to build more factories; you also need people to work there. Same with R&D, although in this case it's getting the best AI talent in house to work on these extremely difficult problems.
Elon has said that the next generation of Autopilot will be rebuilt to treat the entire 360 degree visual frame as a single element rather than as individual camera views, and apply object recognition directly to the image rather than take the intermediate step of translating everything into vector space... I think. The details are way over my head.
Anyway, on the Brandenburg thing, we have at least partial confirmation via this Teslarati article
that the Green Party in Germany is upset with the Brandenburg Green League, which was a party to the lawsuit that temporarily halted forest clearing work. The Green Party strongly favors Tesla's efforts on Giga Berlin and recognizes the forest in question as a "low-quality" plantation with little positive environmental value. Sourcing is from Berliner-Zeitung, but that's in German so I won't attempt to read it.
- Consumer Reports has recently published an article describing Tesla as the undisputed leader in EV battery and powertrain efficiency.
- From InsideEVs: Volkswagen May Launch Rugged All-Electric Crossover In 2023
I hope that "VW Ruggdzz" is a working name, because what the fuzz, but this concept EV will eventually turn into a crossover SUV with a dedicated offroad version in 5 and 7 seat variants.
- From Tesla Owners Online: FAST EV LIGHTNING RUN: CANADA’S FIRST COAST-TO-COAST NONSTOP ELECTRIC VEHICLE ROAD TRIP
On Sunday, February 23, two drivers will drive a Tesla Model 3 Performance from British Columbia to Halifax in shifts, non-stop except for Supercharging stations, expecting to complete a coast-to-coast road trip in 3 days. This is made possible by the recent installation of Tesla's v3 Supercharging network across the Trans-Canada highway.
Edited by Fighteer on Feb 20th 2020 at 12:49:46 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
It rather feels like they're far beyond the point of diminishing returns where adding more people is going to accelerate AI development. It's quite odd.
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Aye, that makes one wonder if at some point the sunk cost factor kicks in.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Lost in Space
I'm not sure whether any of us is in a position to judge whether any particular company is hiring sufficient numbers of software engineers for R&D. It seems puerile.
From what I know of how Musk operates, it's as likely as not that they are trying to prevent sunk costs by scrapping a system that isn't working out as hoped and replacing it with a newer, better one.
Edited by Fighteer on Feb 20th 2020 at 2:49:11 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
I would like to think I'm in a somewhat better position to be confused by company hiring habits when trying to accelerate work on a particular topic, because for the life of me I cannot see what more AI engineers is going to achieve. There's just an inevitable point of having too many people and too small a problem domain (constrained as they are by the hardware process) where even if you try to have as little overlap as possible there's just... not enough work for people to not be working on things that someone else is already working on and trying to merge results is a nightmare. And that's just normal software development; fiddling with machine learning is even more likely to immediately affect someone else...
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Lost in Space
(Crossposted from the General Automotive Thread)
From Sean Mitchell on Youtube: Why the Dealership Model is Anti-American
Note that this isn't just about EVs, although Tesla makes a very good headline case, but how the evolution of the dealer model over the history of the United States has transferred economic power from being held almost entirely by manufacturers to being held almost entirely by dealers, and how this restricts one of our most basic freedoms: the ability to choose whom we buy a product from.
It is illegal in most U.S. states to purchase a car directly from a manufacturer. Tesla alone has managed to get exceptions, but these only serve to illustrate why the current model is so badly broken. Dealers are a trillion dollar enterprise and they won't give up their power easily; indeed they like to talk up how they make the buying experience easier for the customer. Yeah... not for anyone I've ever talked to.
Auto dealers face an existential crisis going into the era of electrification:
- They make most of their profit from service, and electric vehicles require far less of it than gas cars. This creates basic economic disincentives to sell EVs.
- As more and more EV startups begin selling cars outside the traditional dealership model, dealers' market share will gradually erode. These non-traditional automakers are demonstrating how much easier a car buying experience can be.
- As traditional automakers lose market share to alternative fuel technologies or spend billions of dollars to invest in them, their finances will become more and more strained and ceding profit margin to dealers will seem less and less financially viable.
Now it is inarguable that new companies entering the auto marketplace will run into headaches when it comes to sales and service presence, as these require enormous investment in property and personnel (as Tesla has struggled with). This leaves a role for auto dealers, but only if they display a willingness to deal in these new vehicles and train their technicians to service them.
Edited to add: from InsideEVs, EV startup Rivian has joined in the call for opening up direct auto sales in the U.S.
Figure of Hourai
The cross section of things that are illegal in the US and aren't illegal in the US never fails to be baffling.
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Lost in Space
I won't disagree there. Dealers have a role in service, I'll admit, but in terms of both sales and service they should be competing with manufacturers as well as each other.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
Bit of a news dump...
The Mattel Hot Wheels 1/10 scale RC Cybertruck is sold out, barely six hours after orders went online. The truck itself is rumored to have over 500K preorders, more than Tesla expects to be able to make in five years. I've never seen anything like this. (Teslarati coverage)
From Twitter, a translation of a German article detailing the ongoing problems with Volkswagen's ID.3 EV: specifically, the software suite. It's rushed, not working as planned, and summer 2020 deliveries are now in doubt. Thousands of newly built cars are apparently sitting in lots, inoperable, until they can be manually updated with working software.
From Teslarati: Tesla Model Y delivery emails are being sent to customers
Looks like March 15 as the delivery date for the first Tesla Model Ys. True to form, the earliest deliveries will be of the Performance variant and will go to customers in Northern California, near the Fremont factory. Model Y is up to six months ahead of schedule according to the company's original timeline, an important sign that it is getting over its early habit of overpromising.
From Teslarati: Tesla rival Audi hits the pause button on e-tron production
The Audi e-tron has halted production temporarily due to a shortage of batteries. In fact, it's not the only EV facing these issues. Per this article from InsideEVs, Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz also face similar problems, all due to supply constraints from LG Chem. It is likely to be temporary, but spells out the need for auto manufacturers to invest in their own supply chains for batteries.
From InsideEVs: Tree Farm For Tesla Gigafactory 4 Is Almost Cleared
After the resumption of work last week, the site for Tesla's Giga Berlin has been almost completely cleared of trees. There are a few isolated stands left that are set aside for wildlife preservation (among these are the bats that need to be relocated), and apparently work is still going on to dispose of WWII ordinance, but work proceeds apace. The site has seen protests both for and against Tesla, with some activists having to be physically removed from the land.
It is worth noting, again, that the factory site is not a natural pine forest, but rather a plantation created for cardboard manufacturing, and that Tesla is planting three times as many trees as it fells in nearby locations.
Edited by Fighteer on Feb 25th 2020 at 8:11:23 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
I mostly find it rather sad that a 400$ toy car has sold out so quickly.
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Lost in Space
I don't know about sad... if anything it shows the level of consumer enthusiasm for the Cybertruck. You can think whatever you want about it; I have my personal doubts, and I'm certainly not in the market for any kind of pickup truck, but the excitement it has generated is off the charts. When was the last time you saw people this freaked out over a mass-market car?
Tesla's marketing strategy is absolutely genius.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
Because it's a brilliant reminder of the gullibility of humanity and how easily people buy into hype over a product that they absolutely don't need.
Good marketing is just a reminder people are idiots.
Edited by RainehDaze on Feb 25th 2020 at 3:54:40 PM
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Lost in Space
I'm happy I don't share your outlook on life, then.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
A French startup has an interesting idea for expanding the range of EVs: a detachable trailer containing a large battery pack. [1]
Originally they were going to put a gas or diesel engine in the trailer to use as a range extender but they decided to go with batteries in the end. Right now the idea is that the trailers will be available to rent along high-traffic routes but they may offer them for purchase in the future.
Edited by archonspeaks on Feb 25th 2020 at 7:59:21 AM
They should have sent a poet.
Lost in Space
I saw that article earlier, or at least a tweet about it, but forgot to post. Thanks for bringing it up. The important thing to remember about trailers is that they reduce the efficiency of the vehicle they are attached to and thus its range; this is true regardless of the power source. The loss of efficiency is made up for in part by the ability to extend the range, but you're still getting less total bang for your buck, so to speak.
This company also has to work out the mechanism by which the trailer will connect to the vehicle. I don't think you can drive most EVs with an open charging port; it wouldn't be safe. So there would have to be either an aftermarket mod or an arrangement with the OEM to provide an interface for the trailer. There's also the issue of charging the batteries while they are in use powering the car note . If the motors can switch over to power from the trailer, that's one thing, but I don't know how feasible it is.
I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just that it requires a lot of thought. The idea of being able to rent a range extender for long trips is attractive to people who are concerned about frequent charging stops yet don't want to invest a lot of money up-front in a long-range vehicle.
Edited to add: Here's an interesting tidbit from InsideEVs: Tesla Wants German Government To Change Semi Truck Laws. Specifically, a 1956 law prohibiting semi trucks from being driven on Sundays and holidays. The law is aimed at preventing people from being disturbed by noise and air pollution from these trucks. The Tesla Semi, of course, is far quieter than diesel trucks and emits no pollutants, so it makes sense to eliminate that restriction.
And more news, also from InsideEVs: Mercedes-Benz Electrifies Its Compact Models. These models include the all-electric EQA and the plug-in hybrid EQ Power, which are in prototype testing stages and could be unveiled at the 2020 Geneva Motor Show.
Edited by Fighteer on Feb 25th 2020 at 11:21:30 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Supposedly the company already has 20 of the combustion range extenders in service using a connector installed by the company, so I think that particular issue has already been solved, and they’re in talks with Renault to factory-fit certain models with the necessary equipment. Renault EVs are pretty popular in Europe from what I understand so that makes sense for the market they’re aiming for.
I would guess that the extra range from the trailer offsets any loss from the extra weight and air resistance by a massive factor. The preliminary figure is an extra 350 miles for the battery trailer.
Edited by archonspeaks on Feb 25th 2020 at 8:25:42 AM
They should have sent a poet.
Oh yeah, I forget because there's so much Tesla overlap.
And in all fairness, "foiled by comparatively minor defacing of the sign" is just... weird. Computer image recognition can be disturbingly accurate from very low detail.
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