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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Just had a state official on CNN saying that Jones is taking Jefferson county by a large margin.
Damn it, this won't be over before I need to sleep, cause I work 8 hours straight tomorrow.
Oh, bother.
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Yeah, I agree that women's bodily autonomy should be a red line.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:17:34 PM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
Guys, the Bookies have Jones' chances at 90%
https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama
Face me now, Bitch!
I cut my Dangan Ronpa 2 play through short just to check on this election, and now I imagine Doug Jones as the Ultimate hope and Roy moore as a Remnant of Despair (Donald Trump being the Ultimate Despair, obviously).
Watch Symphogear
Nate, love ya man, but I don't think so. The GOP cannot shift gears - their base, the guys who turn out in primaries, is completely reality-proof.
Who are the Bookies and why are they seemingly significant?
It's one thing to make a spectacle. It's another to make a difference.
Student of Story
Bookies are oddsmakers for gambling purposes.
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Oh, bother.
Which sadly means we'll keep getting Moore-like candidates.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:19:45 PM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
Literally the Vegas odds-makers, whose entire livelihoods consist of being as close to the mark as they can get when crafting the odds.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:21:11 PM by ironballs16
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Face me now, Bitch!
Doug Jones just needs an ahoge and he really can be an Ultimate Hope.
That's not being cynical, that's was the consensus. Cynical would be saying that it would be a landslide in Moore's favor despite polling and the allegations against him.
Oh, bother.
Yeah, my own expectation was along the lines of what happened in Georgia Sixth. A win for the GOP, but a close one.
I took comfort in the idea that the GOP would actually have to struggle for a "safe" Senate seat.
But now that there's actually hope that Jones might win?
I suddenly understand the Hope Is Scary trope.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:22:43 PM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
@M84: I would agree, except for the points I stated above (the tactical consideration that Roe is not a battle we have to keep fighting, and the fact that pro-life Democrats would be better at fighting the abortion battles that do still need to be fought).
Figure of Hourai
It's also worth noting that when bookies shift gears, they tend to end up being right. News outlets and pollsters can get too certain.
Avatar Source
Face me now, Bitch!
NY Times upshot is calling it for Jones at 95% favorablity.
Watch Symphogear
Oh, bother.
OTOH, the bookies also favored HRC last year. At least, the ones I checked.
But this isn't 2016 and there's no Electoral College in play. It's easier to calculate the odds in an election like this.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:24:21 PM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
A real bad hombre
I've been tracking the discussion thread/AL Senate watch party on /r/neoliberal and it's hilarious, it's the Cult of the NYT Upshot Needle
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -Thomas Edison
The only way they can shift gears is their base becoming so irrelevant that they can't win the presidency anymore and their positions make them auto-lose in anything but the reddest of red states, and on top of that it'd have to be enough for them to forsake what I assume are the demands of their donors as well.
It's gonna take a lot for that to happen.
Figure of Hourai
I think they actually changed or stopped taking bets earlier in the night—they were as confident as everyone else up to the results.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:24:49 PM by RainehDaze
Avatar Source
Roe may not entirely be in danger, but access sure is. Some counties have only one Planned Parenthood, if that. The GOP has been sabotaging abortion providers (regardless of the fact that they also help expecting mothers plan pregnancies, do STD tests, and teach sex ed), and we need to keep fighting that battle.
Face me now, Bitch!
The Bulletin in The AP is also calling a Doug Jones win.
Watch Symphogear
Oh, bother.
Yeah, a pro-life candidate might not be as keen on protecting Planned Parenthood.
edited 12th Dec '17 7:27:00 PM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
I'll admit that I was very cynical of Jones's chances. I figured this would turn out like so many special elections in Republican-leaning house districts had gone. As in Moore would win, but with a margin significantly smaller then the traditional partisan lean of Alabama.
The night isn't over yet, and there are semi-plausible scenarios where Moore manages to sneak a win yet, but the fact that I can right now say that Jones is more likely to win then to lose has me legitimately shocked. Shocked in a very good way to be clear, but all the same I can barely believe I just typed the previous two paragraphs.