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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
We have, multiple times, and concluded Texas going blue anytime soon is a huge lark. Even purple is somewhat unlikely.
Asgore Adopts Noelle
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
x2 It's really close in my opinion; Demographic Shifts and Voting Trends are pointing to a Democratic Explosion in Texas. I think it's gonna be close either way, but I do think Trump will barely win it this time. I think 2024 is the year to be honest.
Edited by DingoWalley1 on Sep 15th 2020 at 8:10:39 AM
Have we talked about how Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize?
Redmess
... I don't know what they are smoking in Norway, but it must be pretty crazy.
Oh, he's an anti-immigration populist. That explains a lot, then.
Edited by Redmess on Sep 15th 2020 at 2:35:01 PM
Optimism is a duty.
Figure of Hourai
The list of people able to nominate someone is huge. That one right-wing guy nominated Trump isn't surprising.
Avatar Source
Redmess
So is there really peace in Israel now? I haven't checked lately, but last time I heard the Palestinians were still around being very unhappy with the situation.
But yeah, this is just one populist nomination, and barely worth reporting on.
Edited by Redmess on Sep 15th 2020 at 2:37:42 PM
Optimism is a duty.
Same guy even nominated Trump in 2018.
Redmess
I think I heard about that one, that was after the North Korea talks, right?
Edited by Redmess on Sep 15th 2020 at 2:41:19 PM
Optimism is a duty.
A procrastination in of itself
Nothing has changed on the ground for the Israel-Palestine situation, the most progressive is that the Israeli government seems to have backed down from making the situation worse, which was a big risk at one point.
As for Texas, yeah it’s possible, but it’s not going to be the tipping-point state, there’s no real scenario where Biden wins the presidency because Texas swings it.
On the Nobel peace prize, this happens every time it’s up, I think Putin gets regular nominations as well.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Yeah, that's what it was. And IIRC House Republicans nominated Trump for the exact same reason in 2019.
Well, if not Texas, are there any states Trump won last time that Biden has a strong shot at winning?
Figure of Hourai
The midwest ones?
Avatar Source
Given that Trump won last time and Biden is currently favored in the polls, it stands to reason that Biden has a strong shot of flipping some states.
Biden has an edge in the 6 major swing states, which all went to Trump last time (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona).
Edited by nova92 on Sep 15th 2020 at 5:51:49 AM
Asgore Adopts Noelle
x3 In my order: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maine District 2(?), Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nebraska District 2, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Montana, Texas, Indiana, Arkansas. I'm not saying he's gonna win all of these states, I'm just saying these are his strongest shots of flips in my opinion based on what I've seen.
Edited by DingoWalley1 on Sep 15th 2020 at 8:54:42 AM
A procrastination in of itself
Biden has reasonable odds at winning Texas, but he’s more likely to win other states that are needed to get him victory. Texas is possible, but it will be the cherry-on-top if Biden gets it, victory or defeat will likely come down to the Mid-West, though Biden could have a path via Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
Edited by Silasw on Sep 15th 2020 at 12:53:24 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Arkansas and Indiana are about as likely as Trump winning California or New York, IMHO. Alaska, Kansas, Montana would need a Blue Tsunami and are very unlikely. Trump is favored in all 3. A good election for Democrats/Biden could put Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and Texas into their column. And IIRC, NE-2 is likelier than ME-2.
Asgore Adopts Noelle
I have seen 1 poll that has Arkansas close and a few that have Indiana close; obviously still favoring Trump, and that's why I put them at the bottom of the list. Kansas and Montana have popular Democratic Candidates for Senate, and Alaska and Kansas have or have had massively unpopular Republican Administrations, but they are still lower on the list because split voting can happen (especially in Montana).
Again, I don't think Biden is gonna win all of these States (specifically I think by Georgia it gets harder for Biden to win them), these are just States I think Biden has good shots at swinging.
Edited by DingoWalley1 on Sep 15th 2020 at 9:06:14 AM
I seriously doubt Biden is going to win Florida, but then again he doesn't need it to win. If he retains all the states Clinton won (which should go without saying) and picks up any combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he should be fine.
The Late Show has uploaded numerous videos on how to get your vote in on various states on their Youtube channel.
Current polling on FL is within the margin of error. It comes down to just how effective the voter suppression will be.
https://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/2020/09/15/day-1335/
Day 1335: "Forthcoming."
U.S.: Total confirmed cases: ~6,596,000; deaths: ~196,000
Source: Johns Hopkins University
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
💻 COVID-19 Live Blogs: New York Times / Washington Post / CNBC / CNN
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/coronavirus-live-updates.html
🗳 How To Vote In The 2020 Election In Every State. Everything you need to know about mail-in and early in-person voting in every state in the age of COVID-19, including the first day you can cast your ballot in the 2020 election. (FiveThirtyEight / Washington Post / NBC News / Wall Street Journal)
https://www.axios.com/john-bolton-criminal-investigatoin-a270805d-ddc4-4282-bbf3-22014006f17c.html
📚 The WTF Just Happened Today? Book List
2/ A federal judge ruled that Chad Wolf is likely unlawfully serving as acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Judge Paula Xinis also temporarily barred the Trump administration from enforcing Wolf’s new asylum restrictions on members of two immigration advocacy groups. Judge Xinis said former acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin Mac Aleenan’s appointment was “invalid under the agency’s applicable order of succession, and so he lacked the authority to amend the order of succession to ensure Wolf’s installation as Acting Secretary.” He added that “by extension, because Wolf filled the role of Acting Secretary without authority, he promulgated the challenged rules also ‘in excess of […] authority,’ and not ‘in accordance with the law.’” (CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/14/politics/judge-chad-wolf/index.html
: Trump’s top two officials at the Department of Homeland Security are illegally serving in their positions, according to a Government Accountability Office report. The independent watchdog agency reported to Congress that Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf and his deputy Kenneth Cuccinelli are serving under an invalid order of succession under the Vacancies Reform Act. After the resignation of Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen in April 2019, Kevin Mc Aleenan took over and altered the order of succession for other officials to succeed him after his departure. GAO has referred the matter to the inspector general of the Department of Homeland Security for further review and potential action. (Politico / Washington Post / New York Times / Axios)
3/ The White House trade adviser refused to testify to Congress about a canceled ventilator contract that would have wasted $504 million. Peter Navarro was called to testify before the House Oversight subcommittee on economic and consumer policy on Wednesday, but the hearing has been canceled after the White House declined to make Navarro available for testimony. (NBC News)
: The Trump administration backed out of a $646.7 million deal to buy ventilators after a congressional investigation found “evidence of fraud, waste and abuse” in the acquisition, which negotiated by White House trade advisor Peter Navarro. The House Committee on Oversight and Reform’s Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy has since opened a probe of all federal contracts negotiated by Navarro. (Pro Publica / Washington Post / CNBC)
The Department of Homeland Security will not make officials available for a House Intelligence Committee investigation into the department’s response to protests in Portland. (Washington Post)
4/ The Trump administration’s top health spokesperson apologized to staffers for accusing career federal scientists of “sedition” and working to undermine Trump. Michael Caputo, the assistant secretary of health for public affairs, and top adviser Paul Alexander also repeatedly tried to revise, delay, or scuttle key CDC scientific bulletins to paint the administration’s pandemic response in a more positive light. Caputo, who is reportedly considering a leave of absence to address physical health problems, said he regretted having embarrassed HHS Secretary Alex Azar and the Health and Human Services department. Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, called on Azar to resign following reports that Caputo and Alexander interfered in the weekly scientific reports from the CDC. Schumer said that the department has “become subservient to the president’s daily whims” and that Azar has been “almost entirely silent about the chaos and mismanagement in his own agency.” (Politico / Washington Post / New York Times / CNBC / CNN)
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/michael-caputo-apology-hhs-staff-415206
: Political appointees at the Department of Health and Human Services repeatedly demanded that the CDC revise or delay weekly scientific reports on the coronavirus pandemic that they believed were unflattering to Trump. Officials characterized the effort by Michael Caputo and Paul Alexander as an attempt to intimidate the authors and water down the reports, which are written to update scientists and public health experts on trends in infectious diseases, including the coronavirus. In one email to CDC Director Robert Redfield and other senior officials, Alexander accused CDC scientists of trying to “hurt the president” with the reports, which he referred to as “hit pieces on the administration” because they didn’t align with Trump’s optimistic message about the outbreak. (Politico / New York Times)
5/ Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House will stay in session until lawmakers and the White House agree on another coronavirus stimulus package. The House is scheduled to adjourn on Oct. 2 until after the election. “We are committed to staying here until we have an agreement,” Pelosi said. “We are optimistic that the White House at least will understand that we have to do something.” (Bloomberg / Washington Post / New York Times / Wall Street Journal / CNBC)
6/ Jared Kushner claimed that the tapes of Trump privately admitting to downplaying the threat of the coronavirus in March are an example of him being “very forthcoming with the American people” about the dangers of COVID-19. Journalist Bob Woodward, however, said Monday that Trump “possessed the specific knowledge that could have saved lives” in January, but didn’t share the information in his State of the Union address, which 40 million people watched. [Editor’s note: Jared Kushner is a dipshit.](TODAY / NBC News)
: Trump privately admitted weeks before the first confirmed U.S. COVID-19 death that he knew the coronavirus “is deadly stuff […] more deadly” than the flu, but he “wanted to always play it down” because “I don’t want to create a panic.” In a series of recorded interviews with journalist Bob Woodward in early February and March, Trump acknowledged the “deadly” nature of the coronavirus, saying it’s “pretty amazing” that “you just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed,” while publicly insisting that the virus was “going to disappear” and that “everything is working out.” More than 189,000 Americans have died of COVID-19. In total, Woodward conducted 18 on-the-record interviews with Trump between last December and July for his new book, “Rage.” Biden, meanwhile, slammed Trump, saying “he knew how deadly it was,” “purposely played it down,” and “knowingly and willingly lied about the threat it posed to the country for months.” (Washington Post / CNN / NPR / NBC News / Politico / Politico / New York Times / New York Times / Axios)
7/ The company that hosted Trump’s indoor rally in Nevada was fined $3,000 for violating the state’s restrictions on large gatherings. Sunday’s rally was held at a facility owned by Xtreme Manufacturing in Henderson, Nevada, where thousands of Trump supporters — most of whom were not wearing masks — gathered to hear Trump speak. A senior public information officer for the city of Henderson said a compliance officer “observed six violations of the directives and the City’s Business Operations Division has issued a Business License Notice of Violation to Xtreme Manufacturing and assessed a penalty of $3,000.” The company has a month to respond to the notice and either dispute or pay the penalty. (CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/14/politics/trump-indoor-rally-fine-corornavirus/index.html
8/ Pro-Trump teenagers are being paid by a conservative nonprofit to cast doubt about the integrity of the election and play down the threat from COVID-19 on on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. The messages were posted at the direction of Turning Point Action, an affiliate of Turning Point USA, and meant to evade rules put in place following the 2016 presidential campaign by social media companies to limit disinformation. In response to questions, Twitter suspended at least 20 accounts involved in the activity for “platform manipulation and spam.” Facebook, meanwhile, removed a number of accounts as part of an ongoing investigation. (Washington Post)
9/ The Trump administration issued a broad new travel advisory warning against travel to China and Hong Kong, citing a risk of “arbitrary detention” and “arbitrary enforcement of local laws” in order to compel cooperation with investigations, pressure family members to return to China from abroad, influence civil disputes, and “gain bargaining leverage over foreign governments.” It also warns that U.S. travelers may be “subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention without due process,” and that those traveling to or visiting China may be detained “without access to U.S. consular services or information about their alleged crime.” A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry criticized the advisory and said the U.S. should “fully respect the facts and should not engage in unwarranted political manipulation” when issuing such advisories. (Associated Press / The Hill)
https://apnews.com/158ee30501a026072afdafb7e14f3ab3
poll/ 71% of Americans believe they have more in common with one another than many people think, including 74% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans and 66% of Independents. (Politico)
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/election-season-americans-united-issues-poll-414687
poll/ Favorability toward the U.S. in the UK, Canada, France, Japan, and Australia is the lowest it has been in at least two decades. Of the 13 nations surveyed, 15% say the U.S. has done a good job of dealing with the outbreak. (Pew Research Center / CNN)
Edited by sgamer82 on Sep 15th 2020 at 6:56:01 AM
Ouch.
Remember, these idiots drive, fuck, and vote. Not always in that order.
On the subject of swing states, here's something that I don't think has been talked about enough
. Could Texas, of all states, go blue in 2020?
Edited by ElSquibbonator on Sep 15th 2020 at 8:03:30 AM