The Arab Spring

NATO is just fail on the sea-side operations, frankly. Ships trying to smuggle supplies out of Misrata still, apparantly, have to fear Gaddafi's Navy. So far only two ships have been reported sunk (might be more, but that needs confirmation), one damaged, and at at least two went to the rebels. Everything else is unaccounted for and it should be...

Also, "military power"? Thats nice and all, but they should define what they mean. If its ground forces great, if its all three service branches, we already know the air force is gone, along with some losses in others, but percentage-wise, that ain't much...

Right now, a lot of Libyans on twitter and such are expressing a theory that Turkey is deliberately stalling NATO attacks for reasons unknown. While the Turkish people seem supportive of the Libyan rebels, Turkish leader Erdogan is currently suspected of trying to play both sides, sending aid to Misratah while at the same time preventing the rest of NATO from approving more airstrikes.

Also, there are signs of disagreements between the EU and NATO; Michael Mann (EU spokesman) has stated that ‘Arms embargo should only be on Gaddafi regime’

edited 5th Apr '11 7:08:26 AM by MayuZane

And there is a similar movement from Italy in that regard, whereas all the other NATO powers are simply "not discounting the option".

On why Turkey can block any further expansion of NATO military operations in Libya: The NATO's voting process - due to not having formalized its procedures - requires complete consensus from all members on its votes. Why the rest of NATO haven't given Turkey the boot on this issue and sideline it in favor of enforcing UN resolution 1973? Probably because they don't want to set a precedent for sidelining any lone dissident member in future votes.

Also... Aljazeera reports that Algeria is overtly sending a convoy through the land borders to alleviate the Gadhafi regime's supply shortages. What the hell, Bouteflika?!

I would postulate that his foreign mercenaries - some are confirmed to originated from the Balkans and Eastern Europe - include ex-military officers/soldiers with extensive field experience from past conflicts.

edited 5th Apr '11 7:17:57 AM by MarqFJA

I just don't understand what Turkey's motivation for hampering NATO operations could be. If it's because they want to prevent civilian casualties, that makes little sense when it comes to Misratah, where Gaddafi troops now control the main road. What does Turkey have to gain from this, especially considering all other NATO members have stated that the Gaddafi regime is no longer legitimate?

EDIT:

Journalist Karl Stagno-Navarra tweets:

1. NATO has 'no contact' with #Libya #NTC - General van Uhm

THAT EXPLAINS A LOT.

edited 5th Apr '11 7:17:48 AM by MayuZane

Some irrational worries that the Libyan revolution will then become a second Iraq War, as expansion eventually leads to sanctioning setting foreign troops on Libyan soil?

No idea, it's all just speculation at this point. The fact that NATO has no communication link with Libyan NTC boggles the mind.

But there's been a diplomatic group from Britain in Benghazi just a couple of days ago. And there's been reports since last week that the Revolutionary leadership has been and is working on coordinating with NATO.

That is true. Sorry, right now there are a lot confusing reports coming from journalists in Libya. As usual, Libya's military situation is like the inside of a black hole.

I'm not surprised about Bouteflika. Early in the war he had his troops at the border with Libya to prevent it from becoming a possible staging ground/hide out for the rebels, unlike Tunisia and Egypt.

I dunno what's up with Erdogan, but if the British and French and the UN as a whole is more active and decisive than NATO, then this should be perfect grounds to dissolve the organization.

I am starting to fear that if NATO doesn't get its act together soon, this war will escalate and become regional. Certainly the set up is there and if there ever was a leader who was narcissistic enough to want to turn his problems into a region-wide war, it's Colonel "OF COURSE" Gaddafi.

Why don't we just bomb Gaddafi himself? Drop a big-ass bunker buster on his Tripoli palace. With a bit of luck, that would kill him.

edited 5th Apr '11 7:47:53 AM by SavageHeathen

@Mayu Zane: No need to apologize. Even Aljazeera, which early in the Libyan revolution Hillary Clinton had explicitly commended on "surpassing U.S. media outlets" in covering the conflict from the inside, has trouble getting accurate enough news out in several instances.

@FF Shinra: NATO was originally created to coordinate U.S.-European military forces against possible attacks from the Soviet Union. 21st century Russia has proven that it's no longer willing to just sit around and let the U.S. and Western Europe play in their backyard (i.e. Afghanistan, the CIS, Eastern Europe, etc.), and so technically NATO still serves a purpose.

@Savage Heathen: We're not even sure that he's there anymore. There are reports from Revolutionary sources in the West and/or Tripoli that he's actually fled to a secret stronghold in the south.

edited 5th Apr '11 8:10:05 AM by MarqFJA

Worth the try anyway, right?

Waste of money to hit a target if he's not there.

And there are rumors that he's forcibly detaining innocent civilians and government officials in Bab Al Aziziyya (his official HQ and residence) to use them as human shields against any airstrikes. Didn't stop NATO from hitting that one building there... Was it last week, or the week before? They said it was being used to house "critical pro-Gadhafi air defense/military coordination" stuff, don't remember the details now.

edited 5th Apr '11 8:13:48 AM by MarqFJA

^^^^

I know that, but unless they reform the organization, it'd be better to simply scrap it and replace it with a EU-US security pace, which would make things somewhat easier.

Getting flooded with conflicting reports about what the fuck is going on in Brega. Al Jazeera Arabic says the defected 36th “As-Saiqa” battalion is attacking from the south of Brega in the desert. They are currently launching a heavy attack against Gaddafi’s forces using Grad missiles. They have managed to push west once more towards the area of Arbaeen which has caused Gaddafi’s forces to retreat.

Yet Anita Mc Naught, Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tripoli, reports that Libyan state television is planning to broadcast live from Brega at some point this evening.

Hoda Abdel-Hamid, a correspondent who has been reporting from the frontlines, says that it can be said with a fair degree of certainty that Gaddafi’s forces have taken all of Brega, given the intensity of their assault this morning towards Ajdabiya.

These two bits of news came around the same time, the first at 4.47pm Libya time, the second 4.53pm. Yeah, I'm just going to throw my hands up and give up on reporting the military situation for now.

Meanwhile, International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo tells Reuters that Libyan authorities had decided that they were prepared to kill anti-government protesters even before the opposition’s movement against Gaddafi had really gotten going.

edited 5th Apr '11 8:45:42 AM by MayuZane

I stopped trusting dictatorial regime-run television outlets long before Libyan state TV had reported in the first couple of weeks of the revolution that Tripoli will be opened within 24 hours to foreign journalists and reporters to see for themselves the "falsehood" of previous claims that Libyan forces had committed massacres against the Tripolitan protestors... and they failed to do so for several days.

Yeah, right. They showed them the streets and hospitals only after they had ample time to clean out the corpses, hide the rubble, and blackmail/threaten every hostpital worker into silence. And they still kept the cameras isolated to a limited sector of the hospital.

Premeditated, huh? Why am I not surprised?

edited 5th Apr '11 8:53:57 AM by MarqFJA

I stopped taking those kinds of channels seriously after an M1 Abrams of the US Army rolled by a live propaganda feed of Baghdad Bob saying there were no US forces in Baghdad.

Major Tom: A part of me really, really hopes something similar to that happens the next time Gaddafi TV tries to broadcast 'news'. At least I can get a good laugh.

edited 5th Apr '11 9:34:54 AM by MayuZane

Maybe someone will work up the nerve to run hollering onto the scene with a revolutionary tricolor.

Gotta love silver linings.

> video of that brigadier general defecting

It mentions verse 110 of the Quran. The cool thing is that I have a copy of the Quran on hand, and here's verse 110 (at the very end of the book—there are only 114), which wasn't translated in the captions (turn the captions on to see a translation):

So, basically, his speech was just a rousing speech making lots of references to religious lore that helped to inspire his joining the revolutionaries.

...I knew that these extra copies of the Bible, the Quran, and the Book of Mormon would come in handy someday!

> Algeria

I knew they were up to no good.

Now we just have to help get this news to the Algerian people, so that they will rebel against their leader too.

edited 5th Apr '11 9:47:17 AM by GlennMagusHarvey

I've been suggesting that Algeria was acting as a conduit to the Qaadafy regime for awhile now. Thats why the sanctions aren't keeping the merc's out of Libya. It's nice to have confirmation of it now.

Turkey's Erdogan wants to play mediator in the crisis. Also (from the article): "Turkey has been a reluctant supporter of Western military intervention in Libya, and its leaders were furious at being initially sidelined by the Western allies from decision-making."

Blocking some of the NATO actions is probably intended to gain some credibility with Qaddify so that when he's ready to discuss terms, he'll turn to Turkey. It looks like it may be working.

edited 5th Apr '11 9:54:52 AM by DeMarquis

Al Jazeera Arabic: Folks in Benghazi are currently demonstrating towards a Turkish aid ship. They're not against the aid ship itself, but are hoping to be able to send a message towards Turkey that they must allow NATO to perform more airstrikes on Gaddafi's supply routes, artillery and tanks. They are also protesting against Turkey’s position on arming the TNC's forces. The Turkish aid ship is NOT allowed to dock at Benghazi's port.

Meanwhile, NATO fighter jets performed air strikes on Gaddafi's forces in Sireer preventing them from destroying the oil field there. About time.

Also, one of Egypt's most prominent clerics Yusuf al-Qaradawi has urged Erdogan to help NTC & supply arms to the rebels, as well as letting NATO do its job.

If Turkey plans to be a mediator, that plan is failing miserably as many in Libya now consider Turkey's Erdogan to be hindering their progress, if not an outright enemy who is secretly trying to help Gaddafi win.

edited 5th Apr '11 10:15:04 AM by MayuZane

Now let's wait for some idiot to cry "why are they wasting effort that could be spent protecting civilians?"

Guess what? A) There probably were no targetable Gaddafi forces elsewhere, as targets in cities are too dangerous to shoot at, and B) Don't pretend that industry is unimportant. Every country depends on its natural resources and industries to survive, so stopping someone from breaking these is not a stupid or unnecessary thing. The rebels are gonna like having access to as much oil as possible when they win, asshole.

Best Of: In agreement.

Man, stuff in Libya's been overshadowing everything else going on in the Middle East. Understandable, given the circumstances, but anyone got any news on what's happening in Yemen/Syria/Bahrain etc.?