The Arab Spring

Surprised they were even talked down the first time, to be honest. Also not sure they could pull that off twice.

Saw some news that some of the protestors revisited the embassy in the Green Zone.

Got a link? My google fu is failing me.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50966958

It’s only a small mention. Nothing major.

So a US airstrike on Baghdad International Airport apparently just killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

...

What the fuck.

Update: Kata'ib Hezbollah's leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was also killed, but given how much of a high-profile target Soleimani is, there's no way that he was just a collateral damage.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jan 2nd 2020 at 8:04:51 AM

There is only so long you can bank on another country's fear of war against superior forces and sheer bravado before you have to actually cash in that check, and I'm not entirely sure that (from a political perspective) the US has it in itself to get into it with Iran militarily.

A war with an occupation no, but a war where a bunch of stuff gets bombed and then the US walks away from the ruins? Quite possibly.

Remember, Iran gets a vote in how the war is prosecuted too. If they damage US forces there badly enough (as in, they pull off a Beirut barracks style attack or something similar), the political pressure to cut bait will be VERY high. Especially given Trumps isolationist instincts.

Another Tanker War would be a cheap and immediate way to hurt US voters right where they can feel it.

I wonder what Iraq's beleaguered government thinks of all this....

Iran has very effective air defences, so airstrikes would likely come with casualties, as would naval bombardment (because nobody's come up with a genuinely adequate defence against modern anti-ship cruise missiles yet). They can also mount their own overseas bombing campaigns thanks to Hezbollah and their other foreign associates (plus home-brewed Quds Force sleeper cells). Bombarding Iran could get very painful very fast.

X4 I don’t see Trump ordering any kind of occupation, I’d expect him to launch a pure slash and burn war, destroy as much of the country as possible from air and sea, send in limited ground forces to destroy other things and kill the government, then withdraw.

Edited by Silasw on Jan 2nd 2020 at 3:49:36 PM

I don't think he's planned that far up the escalation ladder, to be honest. This smells a lot like a knee-jerk response to the US Embassy storming from the other day.

Possibly. I can see it both ways.

I'm not saying the US will invade or occupy Iran. I honestly think all this plays out in Iraq where American forces AND Iranian militias are. Which is why I'm very curious about Baghdad's position. And the protesters...

Oh that makes sense, yeah I could see Iranian groups in both Iraq and Syria making direct attacks on US forces in both countries (remember there are still US forces protecting oil fields in Kurdish Syria), what it then comes down to is if Iran tries to (via proxies) attack the US mainland or if the US tried to bomb Iran directly, either one would be w further escalation.

Yeah, I imagine whatever response comes next is going to come via one of Iran’s proxies. That’s a safe method to cause trouble without rocking the metaphorical boat.

Edited by archonspeaks on Jan 2nd 2020 at 8:16:00 AM

Booting the US out of Iraq is definitely high up Iran's list of priorities. The pressure might come both in the form of proxy attacks against US personnel and mounting pressure on the Iraqi government. In any case, it's going to be mostly Iraqi civilians caught in the crossfire.

Looks like Iraq didn't need much pushing - Mahdi is already calling for the US to withdraw.

Doesn't surprise me. That was the second time the US had done an unsanctioned airstrike in a month. Even if they weren't in Tehran's pocket, Baghdad was gonna be pissed.

However....the protesters (who are very much pox on both houses, but seem to dislike Iran more due to Iran's long game) will probably not be very happy. Will be interested to see what they do.

3rd Iraq war, coming right up.

As in, civil war? Or between US forces and Iranian proxies?

If the Iraqis order US troops out and the US refuses to leave, possibly between the US and Iraq.

Muqtada al-Sadr, who was a pivotal figure in the anti-Iran protests, has formally reactivated his anti-US militia, the Mahdi Army, and the protest movement generally seems to be going 'actually, yeah, we do hate America more'.

That's one guy reading out what sounds like a Friday prayer sermon. Condemning the US strike and general foreign meddling is one thing, but I think it would take a lot for the protesters that Iran-backed PMFs have spent a few weeks gunning down to actually side with them over the US.

The Sadrists are nominally nationalists and have played a bit of a counterbalancing role to the pro-Iran Shi'a power bloc in the recent years (which is not to whitewash the nasty stuff they did during the insurgency). If this thing ends up with them siding with Iran outright, that'd be one hell of a coup for Khamenei and co.

I doubt they will be on any side but their own. They don't like Iran more because they are neighbors, but I don't think al-Sadr would be sad to see America's back either.

Reactivating the militia just means this can potentially become a Mêlée à Trois