The Military Thread

China has a lot more to lose from a direct confrontation than the US does, while it isn't a 100% chance that they won't start a war it is very unlikely that they start one will either.

They would consider Taiwan declaring independence to be a conflict forced upon them.

France to boost Military spending A Western European nation is boosting it's military budget, alert the Vatican, a miracle has occurred

McCain wins big on acquisition reform Of course the whole thing will be vetoed by Obama, rendering this win rather moot.

edited 4th Oct '15 12:41:26 PM by JackOLantern1337

Taiwan declaring independence is an automatic casus belli and is cause for invasion, at least officially. Active Defence states that a retaliation MUST happen, even if there's no hope of victory. Comes down to, how dedicated the Chinese leadership is to their doctrine. However, being corrupt is practically a requirement, so most of them will have their money mysteriously disappear themselves along with it.

Taiwan is independent in all but name, the mainland Chinese just like to pretend they aren't.

Economically and politically Taiwan is independent from China, unless China decides to seize Taiwan, there is no need for them to declare the independence they already have.

For the Chinese dealing with Taiwan alone would hog their attack capabilities and they can't do much against Taiwan unless they launch an preemptive strike on the US bases on the area.

If Taiwan decides to declare independence and China acts on it there is no way they Chinese won't be the aggressors.

China considers Taiwan a rebellious province. Therefore if it declared independence, a war would not be China invading another sovereign state, but it putting down a rebellion in one of it's own provinces.

Edit: They might also believe that the US won't come to Taiwan's aid, especially given China's area denial capabilities. And they might also believe that a quick knockout strike on US bases while they take Taiwan, would force us to except Chinese rule over the island, and possibly all of the Pacific.

edited 4th Oct '15 1:54:32 PM by JackOLantern1337

They believe incorrectly

Because the Chinese economy would collapse, fighting would break out and China would collapse into warlordism before the invasion fleet even left port?

edited 4th Oct '15 2:02:03 PM by Greenmantle

Well no because it'd be trivial to blockade their trade fleets.

Then they collapse into warlordism.

And then everybody starts kung fu fighting.

Or at least thats what Wuxia movies would have us believe.

Or if it goes down really south, Fall Out 5 will be a real life action sequel.

I kind of wish we would visit china in the Fallout games.

Wasn't there some signs that the relationship between Taiwan and China were steadily improving including some uttering of reunification not that long ago?

There was some sort of one-off game that involved the Brotherhood of Steel, a trek to China via Alaska, and an Imperial China with nukes which had been revived by Taiwan invading the mainland in the aftermath of the war.

Maybe. I remember some sort of student rebellion in Taiwan to protest the growing ties to China about a year or two ago. Those might have done a bit to dampen it.

edited 4th Oct '15 3:54:34 PM by Artificius

So we're not likely to see a peaceful transition to a hypothetical Taipei SAR any time soon?

Not to mention one country two systems being proven a lie by their actions in Hong Kong.

The US is prepared to go to bat for Taiwan is need be. The issue is not one of numbers, it's how the militaries people stack up.

Rand and most Jurnos seem to think it's all about the numbers. Rand lots big time in Vietnam due to their linear thinking about body counts.

China does not have an army, from the lowliest soldier, sailor, airmen or marine to the highest general or admiral, with combat experience. No NCO corps who can lead, coach and mentor troops with "I've seen the shit" experience. Sure they can train in wargames, but the real deal?

The US is a combined arms military, a fighter does not go it alone: there's the pilot's wingman, the rest of the squadron on the radio net, AWACS watching and listening, the "kill chain" monitoring the pilot's progress, other units nearby, Navy ships who can see the pilot......all the way to the Whitehouse.

Has the PLA worked to make sure their SAM sites can talk to their pilots? Can they network their ships so that they can support their aircrew?

It took fifty years to get us at combat ops where the US can fight networked. China expects to do this in less than half the time with an Army lacking combat experience?

Bruce Campbell said it best:

The military is indeed, but I question if the public, and politicians are prepared to do the same thing.

If China was somehow able to pull it off without hitting US assets then maybe, but any attack on the US (like your suggested preemptive strike on US bases in the region) and the public will fall in line. You guys don't react to being attacked by cowering, you rage, you get mad and you trash stuff.

Plus even if there was no war with the US, the economic impact could be big. The US might well bust out sanctions on China, which if tough enough could crash the Chinese economy, especially if combined with the economic cost of a war.

Hell I doubt the government of Taiwan would go quietly, the nuke rumours may not hold true but the military would still put up a fight, even that fight might do serious damage to the Chinease economy by disrupting trade in the region. While the military of Taiwan might not be the very best we'd still be seeing two advanced militaries duke it out, and they'd be fighting for control of a reasonably urbanised area.

Think about when large powers have occupied territories in recent times, Saddam and the Taiban didn't have anywhere near Taiwan level tech. I don't belive Gerogia did either, and the Russians didn't annex Georgia, they didn't need the whole country, China would need to take by force the entire island of Taiwan.

On top of that the region would collectively lose its shit. Nobody in the region wants China to start annexing shit.

edited 5th Oct '15 6:51:52 AM by Silasw

We used to, but recent events have done quite a bit of damage to that consensus. We are not the same country we were when Pearl Harbor was attacked, nor when the 9/11 attacks happened. We don't have the moral strength to wage a war against China, especially since much of the international community would be condemning us, China is starting to contribute a lot to the UN, and it has a lot of good will in Africa and South America. Plus I don't think we'd be able to tolerate the losses they would inflict upon us.

I don't think it is true. If attacked the US would be out for blood like all the times the US was attacked.

Jack, the US for the moment has absolutely no reason to go to war with anyone, not against China, Russia, Iran or whatever is the new Axis of Evil bad guy of the decade.

Syria and ISIL are odd cases because no one knows if they can achieve anything there, Middle East is a special case because there is a war every decade and no one in the US, EU and everywhere else is sure of what the world powers are doing there anyway besides trying to maintain the status quo.

Going all out with China won't benefit anyone and both the Chinese leaders and US leaders are very well aware of that.

You guys really haven't changed that much. And your idea about the rest of the world supporting China is bull. China would be facing international condemnation even if it did the entire thing without attacking the US. Remember, the Russian annexation of Crimea was condemned 100 to 11 at the UN.

With attacking the US, it would not go well for China, I suspect that even the Russian would start screaming bloody murder, there's playing hardball then there's almost starting WW3. I'm sure you think that NATO and the US's East Asian allies would ignore it, but they wouldn't. Sure article 5 wouldn't technically apply, but that wouldn't matter.

Plus the US wouldn't have to fight to win, simply putting an embargo on China would destroy the Chinease economy, especially as you'd see the EU do the same.

Look at all the shit that's gone down over Russian taking Crimea, and Ukraine didn't fight back, Russian troops were already there, no NATO member was attacked, Ukraine was unstable as hell, and Crimea and the Crimean government generally actually supported the move.

Bellingcat's open source investigation into the Kunduz MSF hospital bombing suggests that it wasn't a bomber but an AC-130 responsible. Apparently the Afghan military alleged that the hospital compound was a Taliban base. Bad intel leading to the Belgrade Chinese Embassy attack, Take Two?

The Afghans have gained ground in Kunduz This whole incident seems like Tet all over again.

edited 5th Oct '15 8:26:48 AM by JackOLantern1337

No no no, you're supposed to say "This is it, it's the end, the Afghan counteroffensive is doomed, and soon we'll all be learning how to say "Don't shoot!" in Pashto. Dooooooooooooooom!"

Only if the US panics. Hasn't thus far (one positive thing about Afghanistan not getting hyperfocus).