Eastern European Politics

...so what is Jobbik actually arguing for, or are they just blasting everyone else for not having any coherent plans without presenting one of their own?

The gist of what Jobbik said can be summed up as "I don't like this either but unless you guys have a better idea, shut the hell up". They're not defending Orbán, they're telling the others to cut the Attack! Attack! Attack! rhetoric unless they have something useful to say.

Jobbik tends not to play by the classic rules of fake politician pleasantries.

Also, turns out the interpreter messed up yesterday. Putin didn't invite Orbán to Moscow, he invited Áder. The Kremlin's webpage says the same as well.

edited 18th Feb '15 9:09:56 AM by amitakartok

I seem to have missed the info about who the Ader guy is.

And after this sort of shitshow, Orban's done. Putin played him like a schmuck, pissed on his head and handed him an umbrella after the fact.

Áder is the President of the Republic. Nominally he's the head of state but it's a mostly ceremonial position with a single-use veto power per legislation^note that is, he can temporarily veto a proposal but he can only do it once per proposal, after which he has to sign it no matter what; vetoing a proposal also doesn't annul it, just sends it back to the National Assembly to modify and vote on once more and no executive authority...

...though Orbán is rumored to be planning to expand the position's authority, followed by claiming the position for himself after his current term as PM is over.

Meanwhile, Fidesz' EU delegate was interviewed and admitted that Fidesz' internal fractures are "starting to show on the outer wall too". Without a strong opponent, members are starting to be more motivated by self-interest than the party's common good.

edited 19th Feb '15 1:22:34 AM by amitakartok

What I'm hearing, then, is that Jobbik is in a good position because they're the only opposition party of any consequence. And because Orban is picking a very bad time to try to go full Putin.

Hmm. Is Jobbik relenting on the nationalism and the anti-EU stance? If not, and no other parties step up, I can potentially see a much-reduced voter turnout, if Jobbik can't capture the protest vote.

I've heard stuff that Jobbik wants to secede from the EU the instant they grab the leadership.

Meanwhile, Orbán was verbally destroyed by the Polish PM for buddying up to Russia and zigzagging between supporting and opposing a Hungarian-Polish energy union. Especially notable due to the centuries-long historic friendship between the two countries and Orbán, having began his term with a visit to Poland, now acting contrary to the two countries' mutual interests.

I'm not entirely convinced at this point that Orbán will not go down in history as a colossal fuckup.

edited 19th Feb '15 5:03:50 PM by amitakartok

Can I ask you a question? How many people, outside of Orban and Orban's party, are pro-Russian?

Next to no one, actually. I was born barely a year and a half after we dropped socialism, so I grew up among adults who despise the Russians. Hungary has a near-continuous 500 year history of being invaded, occupied and turned into a vassal by neighboring superpowers; there is historical precedent for us to be isolationist and everybody knows it, it's not Jobbik's invention. The Nazis had one lost war and economic hardships to use as fuel in whipping the population into a nationalistic frenzy; Jobbik has half a millenia of multiple failed revolutions and rebellions, several of them followed by excessively brutal reprisals, to use as ammunition for nationalism. We've been invaded from the west, from the east, from the south; there isn't many left to trust (apart from the Polish, who were always True Companions^note with centuries-long friendship lasting even now; Hungarians enjoy a very warm reception in Poland and the two countries having repeatedly assisted each other in times of need. Case in point, Poland sent officers and cannon-manufacturing craftsmen during the failed revolution in 1849 and when Germany invaded Poland in 1939, Hungary let thousands of Polish Jews escape through the border despite nominally being Germany's ally). This is why you should be very afraid of Jobbik: because they've taken root in one of the most desperate and mistrusting peoples in Europe.

With that said, some people do admit that in some ways, Hungary was actually better off during socialism than after it: before the regime change, people weren't as wealthy but at least their living conditions were stable.

edited 20th Feb '15 6:11:45 AM by amitakartok

I see. Thanks for telling me.

Well, shit. In other words, it's entirely possible that Hungary's EU future would remain jeopardized even after Orban.

That's a comforting thought I there is one.

You're not the only one who thinks that. The next head of Romania's intelligence office released an analysis that classifies Hungary as a threat to their country that must be dealt with before they get caught in a pincer.

You know, I find it really irritating that everyone always talks as if the actions of a country's leadership is representative of the opinions of everyone in the country. Especially if said country is also seeing repeated anti-government mass protests clearly evident of public dissatisfaction with the leadership. It's always the same generalization crap. And then they act surprised when people get so disgusted with politics they refuse to vote.

edited 20th Feb '15 1:49:06 PM by amitakartok

"But if they don't vote, they must either agree with the current consensus or don't care. Protest non-votes don't count."

To me, it gives the impression they're more interested in looking for reasons to spark conflict instead of reasons to get along.

I have to admit, the idea of helping Jobbik take over for the sole purpose to string fuckers like these up really appeals to me. Annoyed by ants stinging you? Set the whole goddamn hive on fire and start over with a clean slate. That's what post-WW 2 Germany did and it worked out of them.

edited 20th Feb '15 2:45:11 PM by amitakartok

Shirley, you jest. What happened after WW 2 in Germany was more of a PR move with a body count than a meaningful action. Suffice to say, when they made a high-ranking SS member their spymaster, and couldn't touch people like Reinefarth or von dem Bach (what they did to von dem Bach was more of a Poke the Poodle).

Although it's good to know that only the local right-wing idiots are dumb enough to deny that our PM did chew Orban out (she has an awful track record as the Prime Minister, and people are growing more and more annoyed that nothing changes, at least not for the better).

We've got a Hope Spot: interim elections in a major city today (due to the previous guy having been kicked upstairs into the European Commission). If Fidesz' candidate loses, they'll lose supermajority in the national assembly.

True, far too many Nazis got away without receiving any substantial punishment, but at least the Allies made sure that the new German generation grew up deeply convinced of democracy and peace. These people would later cause the revolution of 1968 and elect social democratic leaders like Brandt and Schmidt, and perhaps most importantly many achieved what historians call a (Durchmarchs durch die Institutionen), which means many of them ended up in careers in political institutions and througly liberalized many previously conservative institutions.

AND THEY DID IT.

Announced 15 minutes ago: at 90% of votes processed, Fidesz' candidate lost the Veszprém interim election to a left-supported independent candidate, meaning that Fidesz is now one seat short of a supermajority.

Fidesz' former representative (who went into the European Commission) calls this "unexpected" and says they'll had to change their strategy.

Jobbik's candidate says the independent's victory is Jobbik's victory too, as it was an opposition candidate who took the position and not Fidesz.

edited 22nd Feb '15 11:59:10 AM by amitakartok

An independent candidate? That's quite surprising. Congrats.

Officially he's independent but the leftist opposition are aligned with him. Jobbik is also favoring him, with Jobbik's candidate (who came in third, not even threatening the result) pledging to provide good publicity by informing the public about everything the guy does for the city.

With that said, one of the leftist opposition parties (PM) is calling for early elections on the grounds that Fidesz no longer represents the will of the people, partly due to loss of supermajority and partly due to the interim election's result reflecting a change in public opinion since the last elections.

Another (DK) also talked about early elections, as well as calling it an "important development" that "democratic cooperation cleanly defeated Jobbik as well".

Fidesz' (delayed) response was a dry "congratulations for the winner, thanks to everyone who voted for us".

In an interview, the winner said that he's not anti-Fidesz like the opposition but is willing to cooperate with any party if it serves the city's interests. He considers his independent position as something that gives him far more room to maneuver than, say, a Fidesz member "who only has to sit there and push the button".

edited 22nd Feb '15 4:47:05 PM by amitakartok

Surprise surprise: Orbán's house is now marked on Google Maps.

President Komorowski, after doing some bumbling during the official visit in Japan, said something that, thanks to ambiguity of the Polish language, could mean a reference to the victims of anti-communist guerrillas active in Poland during the aftermath of World War 2. Of course, the rightards are frothing at the mouths again, and ignoring the ugly facts concerning those "forsaken soldiers".

The "forsaken soldiers", what has been proven after the communism fell, did exactly the things the Nazis and the commies did - pillaging, raping, murdering civilians because of their religion or nationality. Hell, there are historical documents, Home Army field reports, Government-in-Exile communiques, memoirs by pre-war Socialists, all saying that the nationalist guerrilla organizations at least refused to cooperate with the Home Army if not openly fought them during the war, going as far as collaborating with the Nazi regime. Just as the communist regime tried to smear the Home Army by attempting to link them to the atrocities committed by the nationalists, after 1989 the new government focused on whitewashing the nationalists by attempting to link them to pretty much everything the Home Army did. Sure, some of the nationalists could be reasoned with and switched sides to join the Home Army back in the day, but that wasn't as common as the rightards would like to think.

About a week and a half ago, the Hungarian parties' head representatives came together with the Minister of Homeland Defense to talk about Hungary's possible contribution to the fight against ISIS jointly alongside Italy and Gemany. They couldn't come to an agreement; Fidesz blamed it on resistance from the opposition parties and the lack of supermajority... except even Orbán admitted earlier that not all of Fidesz fancies the idea of joining the conflict, an opinion the socialists share.

Accordingly to a scathing article I read just now, Fidesz' head representative Rogán recently held a speech or something at a memorial for gulag victims, where he condemned the USSR's deeds. But here's the kicker: he believes that the communist ideal of equality only really came true in the gulags and it did not bring happiness or prosperity. "That's why we don't believe in equality, because you have to destroy all values and deport everyone who creates values. [...] Whoever believes in civil values believes that equality is a delusion."

Insane Troll Logic at its finest.

And now I've found something even better.

Earlier this week, the high schools of the city I've used to go to high school to myself received a letter from the ministry of education that they are to send ten students and one teacher each as audience for the March 15^note national red letter day commemorating the beginning of the 1848 revolution memorial event as audience.

One of the schools refused to comply... and now a civil group called the Association of the Future's Generation, together with one of Fidesz' fan groups (CÖF, the Forum of Civilian Unity) is majorly flipping out, demanding that the school's faculty and students over 18 should be subjected to punitive conscripting into the local neighborhood watch and threatening that they will do everything in their power to prevent the students of that school from getting into higher education if they don't show up at the event; they say the school's leadership "desecrated" a national holiday and is rallying the new generation against the legally elected government. The school said they don't want their students to get involved in politics and that they condemn forcing the students to do this; AFG says they're "committing treason against the homeland by politically influencing the children".

CÖF says it's not an official statement as they don't have a group in that particular city, meaning that someone is abusing their name. This so-called "association" also made a name for itself in January by sending the govt a petition that the internet tax should be introduced, together with a media tax (levied on everyone who owns a device capable of receiving TV, radio or internet), plus taxing those who haven't done military service (conscription was abolished sometime around 2000, IIRC) and those who buy high-brand clothes.

I honestly cannot decide whether these guys are serious or just trolling.

edited 12th Mar '15 9:47:57 AM by amitakartok

That's... That's getting awfully close to the point where Godwin's law isn't evoked with certain comparisons, I mean seriously...