Lost in Space
Right now I'm most excited for the potential for broadband service using Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. Several companies are working on this, including OneWeb, Amazon, SpaceX, Google, and ORBCOMM.
SpaceX's Starlink program is by far the most ambitious, seeking to deploy over 12,000 satellites in three orbital shells, providing varying levels of coverage and latency. Their first launch of 60 satellites on May 24th represents the largest deployment by any currently operational LEO provider to date. ORBCOMM has 31 satellites in orbit. OneWeb has six. Amazon and Google have yet to deploy any operational satellites.
The primary advantage of LEO satellites is latency. Whereas geostationary satellites have functional latency of ~700 ms due to their very high orbits, LEO can bring that down by a very large factor, as low as 10-15 ms depending on their orbit and the performance of the satellites themselves. This also dramatically improves signal strength, allowing these satellites to consume less power and function reliably in bad weather.
These satellites orbit very fast relative to the ground, so they do not maintain fixed positions over any particular spot. Rather, ground stations need to be able to track satellites as they move overhead, seamlessly switching between them in a manner similar to how your cell phone will switch between towers as you travel (or, more appropriately, how GPS trackers will switch between satellites). They also have relatively low areas of visibility, meaning that you need thousands of them at a time to guarantee coverage of the whole planet.
Aside from offering alternatives to traditional land-based broadband for consumers in developed areas, the biggest promise of LEO satellite constellations is the ability to deliver high speed, reliable Internet to any location on the planet, especially those that are traditionally under-served (or not served at all) by landline providers, whether due to logistical or economic issues. Political issues are a separate concern, of course. These satellites can also easily reach airplanes and ships, allowing airlines and cruise lines to provide cheaper Internet options for their passengers.
For most of these providers, the ground portion of the network will be small stations that can be purchased by consumers, set up in their homes with a view of the sky, and connected to their devices in much the same way as a cable, DSL, or fiber optic modem. Enterprise services will also be available, allowing (for example) a cell phone provider to set up a tower without having to run a fiber-optic line to it. Instead, the tower would use a LEO satellite transceiver and purchase bandwidth from the corresponding provider.
Consumer pricing has yet to be announced for most of these services, but some companies have indicated target prices for the ground stations in the 200 USD range. Depending on how successful their launch schedule is, Starlink could begin offering limited service as early as 2021. Orbcomm provides a variety of land-based and satellite communications services, but with only 31 satellites currently operational, I'm not sure how they could hope to provide mass consumer coverage. I am not aware of the availability forecasts for any other providers.
There are some concerns with LEO broadband constellations:
- The low orbits they will use will mean significant atmospheric drag, requiring the satellites to maintain altitude using onboard thrusters. The amount of fuel available will determine their lifespans. The companies will need to continually launch new ones to replace satellites that fail or run out of propellant.
- The launch cadence needed to set up the network in the first place is another limiting factor, with anywhere from six to twelve launches per year for each provider. This is expensive and risky, but it's a major advantage for SpaceX and Amazon, both of which have or are building their own launch capability rather than relying on other companies or governments.
- Political considerations may interfere with the ability of the providers to supply service to many countries. There are concerns, for example, that China may demand that the satellites turn off their antennas when over that nation as a condition to allowing the companies in question to do business there. Ownership of ground stations may be banned.
- Each provider will have to individually negotiate with the telecommunications regulators for every country they want to do business in. They'll have to build, market, and sell the ground stations, set up customer and technical support centers, and otherwise act as ISPs, which could be a major operational challenge.
- An alternative path to market is to sell bandwidth exclusively to ISPs and businesses rather than directly to consumers. I don't know which companies are considering this option or how it will impact their profitability.
- There are concerns that having tens of thousands of LEO satellites zipping around could significantly interfere with ground-based astronomy due to reflected sunlight. (Many videos were posted after the Starlink launch showing the train flying overhead, easily visible to the naked eye.) This should only be an issue near dawn or dusk, and SpaceX has plans to address the albedo of their satellites to make them interfere as little as possible.
- Space debris is another issue with so many small satellites in orbit, but one of the advantages of LEO is that the time it will take for orbits to decay through atmospheric drag ranges from a few months to a few years, rather than the hundreds or thousands of years for higher orbits. This means the satellites will be self-disposing.
Edited by Fighteer on Jun 7th 2019 at 2:14:15 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mts-5g-huawei-deal-tech-cold-war-2019-6
Business Insider has more details on the deal with MTS and Huawei.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Beware the Crazy Man.
Been following telecom for sometime. Keeping my eye on the T Mobile/Sprint merger (or, to be more specific, the knock on effects this will have on all the small fry companies) and big cable's moves into Wireless (and the wave of mergers and acquisitions that is revving up in that sector as the cable and wireless technologies, nowadays one and the same, are reflected in the market).
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
I have to agree that while I have some reservation on Huawei, even in the midst of the trade war, Trump hasn’t offered alternatives to use it.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Back in the days of radio dominance in communication, how can a broadcast be picked up? To be specific, if you used radio equipment on say, an aircraft carrier, would it be picked up across the world?
Lost in Space
Technically, radio waves propagate forever, and can reflect off of the ionosphere, permitting signals to be picked up even when they are out of line of sight of the transmitter. This is how AM radio in particular is able to achieve such high range with relatively low power.
However, this very much depends on the kind of signal, the transmission strength, and how many other signals share the same frequencies. Aircraft carriers carry a number of different kinds of radios: long-range ones designed to communicate with land, medium-range for talking with aircraft, satellite for data and positioning, etc.
Edited by Fighteer on Jul 11th 2019 at 8:20:17 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
Softbank will work with the Saudis despite what happened to Kashoggi. This is nothing new.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
Huawei is already doing R&D for their own OS:
This one's from AFP.
Richard Yu, the head of Huawei's consumer business, told a press conference in the southern city of Dongguan that the new system, called Harmony OS or Hong Meng in Chinese, would "bring more harmony and convenience to the world".
The highly-anticipated software is considered crucial for the tech group's survival as it confronts a looming White House ban on US companies selling technology products to Huawei which could remove its access to Google's Android operating system.
Yu said the new system was a "future oriented OS" to be "more smooth and secure", which he said was "completely different from Android and iOS".
Huawei said the first version of the operating system would launch later this year in its smart screen products, before expanding across a range of smart devices including wearable technology over the next three years.
"If you're asking when will we apply this to the smartphone, we can do it at any time," said Yu, adding that they gave priority to using Google's Android operating system, which is compatible with Harmony.
"However, if we cannot use it (Android) in the future, we can immediately switch to the Harmony OS," he said.
In May the company was swept into the deepening trade war between Beijing and Washington which has seen punitive tariffs slapped on billions of dollars of two-way trade.
Huawei — considered the world leader in superfast fifth-generation or 5G equipment and the world's number two smartphone producer — has been blacklisted by US President Donald Trump amid suspicions it provides a backdoor for Chinese intelligence services, something the firm denies.
On Thursday Beijing slammed US rules banning Huawei and other Chinese companies from government contracts, saying they amounted to an "abuse of state power".
- 'Plan B' -
As a result of US moves to blacklist Huawei, American companies are theoretically no longer allowed to sell technology products to the firm, but a three-month exemption period — which ends next week — was granted by Washington before the measure came into force.
That ban could prevent the Chinese tech firm from getting hold of key hardware and software including smartphone chips and elements of the Google Android operating system, which equips the vast majority of smartphones in the world, including those of Huawei.
Huawei has reportedly been working on its own operating system since 2012, but the group has always said publicly it didn't want to replace its Android phones with a home operating system.
Yu told German newspaper Die Welt in an interview published in March that creating their own operating system was "Plan B".
Huawei will be able to "develop at a lower cost a brand new ecosystem" and "mitigate its dependence on US suppliers for its software needs", Kenny Liew, technology analyst at Fitch Solutions, told AFP.
However, smartphones using the system would mainly be confined to the Chinese market, Liew said.
Developing an operating system and the entire ecosystem that accompanies it is a complex affair.
Apart from Google's Android, the only other popular operating system is Apple's iOS, available exclusively on the iPhone.
Microsoft pulled the plug on its Windows Phone platform earlier this year, and Samsung's Tizen system is barely known compared with Android and iOS.
But without access to the full version of Android or the popular services of Google — not to mention the many applications available on the Google Play store — Huawei may have trouble convincing consumers outside China to buy its phones.
Edited by Ominae on Aug 9th 2019 at 2:20:32 AM
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Lost in Space
Remember Starlink? Well, while we may have all forgotten about the 50-ish surviving satellites from the first launch, SpaceX hasn't. Based on information revealed in their smallsat rideshare announcement, we can expect bulk launches to begin monthly starting in April 2020.
If we think of the ones already up there as prototypes not intended to be part of the production network (not sure if this is true), and if they continue to put up 60 satellites at a time, then Starlink could reach minimum operating capacity (420 units) by October 2020, with moderate coverage by May 2021. We should therefore expect to see their downlink stations becoming available for consumer purchase by summer 2021.
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 29th 2019 at 1:51:01 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Who Am I?
Do we know there price structure?
"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."
Lost in Space
Nothing about the consumer end has been officially announced or set in stone. All we know is that the ground stations will be flat devices, with the rough dimensions of a pizza box, that will need to be mounted with visibility to the sky, and a target price point is 200 USD. I've heard numbers like 50 USD/month for service, but that's pure speculation as far as I know, based on what would be a competitive price for equivalent bandwidth.
We do know that Starlink will be targeting customers with limited access to consumer broadband. Denser population areas will not benefit as much from the service because (a) they already have broadband options, (b) the total bandwidth available to any physical area will be finite, based on the number of satellites in range at any given time.
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 30th 2019 at 5:35:43 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
Incidentally, SpaceX's smallsat launch schedule may not actually represent the start of bulk Starlink launches. Per information related to FCC and FAA filings (for launch permits), we could see four more launches this year, with the earliest NET (No Earlier Than) October 10. That would put 240 satellites (plus up to 50 remaining from the initial launch) in orbit by the end of 2019, with only three more launches to achieve minimum coverage.
This is coming from various sources but I'm still trying to find an official one. I'll update if I find it.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
Back to Huawei in Japan again, courtesy of NHK World:
Japan's top government spokesperson says Chinese tech giant Huawei has offered to make its source code available to the Japanese government.
The government began in April to take security risks into consideration when it procures telecom equipment to counter growing threats of cyber-attacks.
It is believed that Huawei and some other Chinese makers are effectively banned from selling their products.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said on Thursday that Huawei has proposed to make its source code available so that the government can make sure Huawei products are risk-free.
Suga also said the government currently does not examine the source code of products of any particular maker, and added that it has no plan at this point to accept Huawei's offer.
Edited by Ominae on Sep 5th 2019 at 8:26:38 AM
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Lost in Space
I wouldn't trust China. They've proven to be bad actors over and over again in the tech world.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Oh, bother.
Don't accept gifts from mainland China. They always have strings attached.
Disgusted, but not surprised
Lost in Space
Speaking of China and hacking, Ars Technica covers the InvizBox 2 privacy router, which is manufactured in China. The Ireland-based developers flash the firmware with their own code to prevent it from being compromised during the supply chain.
Nobody trusts Chinese software.
Now, I am not in favor of VPNs on general principle, but I can certainly see why a security-focused company would take this sort of measure.
Edited by Fighteer on Sep 10th 2019 at 10:24:19 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
Crossposting from the Space thread:
In Paris for the World Satellite Business Week conference, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said that the company plans 24 Starlink launches next year in addition to their commercial and government business, and as many as 4 for the rest of 2019 depending on the "paying customer" schedule. For the first time, per Shotwell, SpaceX is ahead of their manifest, meaning they have rockets ready before their customers have payloads ready.
SpaceX has also applied to the FCC for a modification to their Starlink license, allowing them to use a wider range of orbital inclinations. This would allow them to achieve their targeted coverage threshold earlier than previously stated.
Separately, SpaceX Services apparently continues to work on its FCC license to manufacture and sell 1 million Starlink ground stations. [1]
Edited by Fighteer on Sep 12th 2019 at 12:47:35 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
Huawei is offering to license the 5G tech to non-Chinese tech firms.
Some analysts applaud the company for doing so, but problem is with the Chinese national security law.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49754376
The Mate 30 is launched by Huawei.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Lost in Space
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Without the Google Services Core, I see. Oh, well, good luck next time, Huawei.
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
IIRC, those have the option of installing Google stuff.
Though Huawei reps are informing that they’ll let anyone interested know how to do it.
Edited by Ominae on Sep 20th 2019 at 6:26:21 AM
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Lost in Space
(Spaceflightnow.com) SpaceX has applied for an FCC license to expand its Starlink LEO satellite broadband constellation by an additional 30,000 units, for a total of over 42,000. This is widely covered, so highly reliable. It is unknown exactly why they are seeking this increased capacity, but it would allow them to grow their coverage to a truly mind-blowing level.
The first Starlink v1.0 launches are expected late October through November, although it is not clear why the schedule is not fixed.
Edited by Fighteer on Oct 16th 2019 at 11:29:58 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50068415
Germany is not going to give a ban on Huawei on its 5G networks.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/03/softbank-pours-100-million-into-mexicos-konfio/
Soft Bank is venturing to Mexico.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
A thread for anything related to telecommunications.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/07/business/huawei-russia-china-splinternet-intl/index.html
Hopefully I can break the ice with this. Russia has signed a deal with Huawei and Mobile TeleSystems or Мобильные ТелеСистемы. They provide mobile network services in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Armenia. They're defunct in India, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The CNN article has a map to indicate where the company is restricted or facing tough scrunity.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"