The South Asia Politics, News, and Analysis Thread

On Eid, after a brief spell of rain, the crowd that had assembled outside the Ishaque Sardar Masjid in Kankinara Nayabazar area in the morning hurriedly dispersed. After two years of pandemic-induced restrictions, this Eid was expected to be celebrated with pomp. But though people hugged and greeted each other in front of the picturesque mosque after the morning prayers, there was no palpable joy accompanying festivities.

“Livelihood is the biggest source of happiness,” said Wahid Kamal, rolling up the sleeves of his fraying grey shirt and looking at his six-year-old son Atif, who was wearing a new pink shirt. Wahid and Mohammad Guddu, both workers at the Reliance Jute Mill at Bhatpara in West Bengal’s North 24 Parganas district, explained how difficult the holy month of Ramzan had been this year after the mill closed, leaving workers with no income.

Inside the jute mill quarters, the mood was even less celebratory. Ejaz Afjal said he lent some money to his neighbour, a father of three, who, like Ejaz, has been out of work for the past few months. It was on the morning of January 27, 2022 that Wahid, Mohammad, Ejaz and nearly 5,000 workers went to Reliance Jute Mill to find a notice hanging on the gate announcing temporary suspension of work.

The crisis

The large iron gates at the entrance of the century-old jute mills on both banks of the river Hooghly are forbidding. They tend to reflect the mood of the area: during elections, posters of competing political parties are affixed to these gates; every autumn, banners and advertisements on Durga Puja adorn them; during general strikes, messages from trade unions cover them; and occasionally, small notices on white paper, announcing suspension of work, are stuck on them. The people of this region, which has witnessed terrible riots and intense political battles during the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly polls, fear these white notices the most.

Mill workers saw the notice waiting for them on January 1, 2022 on the large yellow painted gate of the Gondolpara Jute Mill. This sprawling mill is located near Chandannagar, on the western bank of the river, not far from the erstwhile French settlement. On March 31, the gate of the mill bore a rather unusual notice, which said that the “majdoor lines will get two more hours of electricity” — a small relief for those living there. Ever since the mill closed, power supply at the quarters had been irregular, totalling 12-14 hours a day.

Without power on a hot day, a young couple, Kanai Shaw and Renu Shaw, sat inside their small cubicle-like quarters. Renu rocked her five-month-old son, lying on the hammock, to sleep, while her four-year-old daughter ate a frugal lunch. An emaciated Renu said her husband had been out of work for the past few months. The family was hungry and helpless.

Though suspension of work is no new phenomenon, recent months have been especially difficult. Between November 2021 and April 2022, at least 12 mills along both the banks of the river downed their shutters, putting 60,000 workers out of jobs in one fell swoop. The workers of Reliance Jute Mill on the eastern bank and Gondolpara Jute Mill on the western bank all lost their jobs when this decision was taken.

According to the Indian Jute Mills Association (IJMA), there are about 93 jute mills in India, of which 70 are in West Bengal. Of the 70, 54 are located in the three districts of North 24 Parganas (25), Howrah (15) and Hooghly (14). The IJMA, which dates back to 1884, estimates the number of workers at 3.5 lakh. It says about 40 lakh farmers are associated with the production and trade of the golden fibre. About 80% of the finished product – or B. Twill jute bag — is bought by the government for packaging food grains and agriculture produce like sugar

According to industry experts, the recent crisis began last September, when the Office of the Jute Commissioner, which comes under the Ministry of Textiles, fixed the maximum price of raw jute at ₹6,500 per quintal. This decision to cap the price at ₹6,500 led to a fall in procurement (as raw jute sells in the market at a price higher than ₹6,500 per quintal) and mills decided to suspend work. A mill owner and a prominent person in the West Bengal jute industry explained the losses mill owners are incurring. At his Kolkata office, he did a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation and pegged it at ₹12 lakh a day. “The capacity of my mill is 100 tonnes a day,” he said. “The market price of raw jute has climbed to ₹7,200 per quintal which is ₹700 more than the ₹6,500 cap by the government. For buying 100 quintals, I have to spend ₹7 lakh more.”

Another issue which the jute mill managements of the State stress on is non-implementation of the Tariff Commission’s report for fair price of B. Twill jute bags, which has led to a loss of ₹1,500 crore to the industry, according to jute mill owners. Since September 2016, the jute industry is being reimbursed for the jute bags on a provisional temporary price. In March 2021, the Tariff Commission submitted its final report; it is still to be implemented. “Apart from spending ₹7 lakh more, we are losing ₹5 lakh because the Tariff Commission’s report on B. Twill jute bags has not been implemented. How can I keep the mill open if I have to shell out ₹12 lakh a day,” the mill owner asked.

While there have been no reports in the public domain about the steps taken against hoarders, the Jute Commissioner, Moloy Chandan Chakraborty, said in a statement that farmers generally dispose of their stock of raw jute by October/November every year. “Thus, there is hardly any raw jute left with the farmers,” the statement said. “At present no jute of the current season is being held by farmers and jute lies with middlemen/traders and even with mills in their own name or in the name of third parties at various places. Relaxation in the upper price cap will only accrue illegitimate gains by these parties and no benefit will accrue to the farmers.”

In an order on May 11, the Calcutta High Court directed the Jute Commissioner to “review and re-fix the rate” of raw jute if the notified rate cannot be adhered to. Justice Amrita Sinha’s 16-page order explained the supply-related bottlenecks. It pointed out that since jute mills are legally bound to supply jute bags to the government for which they are reimbursed at the notified rate, they have no other alternative but to sell the finished products at a loss. With sustained losses, the mills are destined to close down and the already dying industry will perish in no time.

"On the other hand, if the notified rate is increased, the government may not agree to pay more for the jute bags and the idea of switching over to cheaper alternatives may be a viable option. If that be so, then the jute mills, because of exorbitant rates, may not find any takers of their products. Large scale joblessness and economic crisis is bound to follow,” the order said.

Of the many issues raised by the court, one was why the price of raw jute was hiked despite a bumper growth. “There must be some loopholes which are required to be plugged. But who will bell the cat is possibly the next relevant question,” Justice Sinha said.

On the mill floor

Production is an elaborate exercise. Hastings Jute Mill, one of the oldest jute mills in the country, was once the weekend retreat of the first Governor General of Bengal, Warren Hastings. The mill is located at Rishra, in Hooghly district, and was launched by the Birkmyre Brothers in 1875, with 230 looms. It is one of the mills that is still open and sees hectic activity. Bales of jute are first treated with oil and then turned into fibre through mechanised looms. The set-up is like an elaborate car assembly unit. By the time the fibres are turned into threads, they have passed over a dozen machines. Sunlight seeps through the skylight and thousands of people on the factory floor do back-breaking work on old looms. After fibres are turned into threads, they are put on a spool and woven into large bales of jute cloth to be cut and stitched into jute bags. At the end of the assembly line, there is a small set-up where jute imported from Bangladesh is processed. The fibre from Bangladesh looks, and is also considered, superior to Indian jute.

On May 5, the IJMA issued a statement that the Government of India (Go I) is considering continuing anti-dumping duties against imports of jute products from Bangladesh. “Despite the current anti-dumping duty, jute exports from Bangladesh to India, as per Government of Bangladesh statistics, have been increasing. IJMA has contended that the industry would have been completely wiped off by now, had the Go I not imposed an anti-dumping duty,” the statement said. The industry body stated that Bangladesh provides cash subsidies for jute production.

According to a report of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), 2022-2023, India’s jute production has been declining during the last decade. The main reason for this is the decrease in acreage, which is mostly due to cultivation of crops such as paddy, maize, groundnut and sesame. The availability of various types of synthetic substitutes is also reducing the demand for jute. According to the CACP, while the average area annually under jute cultivation was 8.2 lakh hectares from 2000-01 to 2009-10, it dropped to 7.3 lakh hectares from 2010-11 to 2019-20. In 2021-22 it was 6.3 lakh hectares. However, jute production has increased this year compared to the previous year.

In the farmlands

About 50 km from the historical Hastings Jute Mill, at Astara villa in West Bengal’s Tarakeshwar block, farmers expressed concern about extreme climate conditions. Ganesh Khanra and Tapan Kumar Khanra, who used to cultivate six bighas (one acre is 1.6 bigha) of jute about five years ago, now cultivate four.

Ganesh, Tapan and other farmers claimed that every bigha of jute cultivation costs ₹16,000 to ₹18,000 and the yield is about four tonnes per bigha. Based on the recommendations of the CACP, the minimum support price of jute for 2022-23 has been fixed at ₹4,750 per quintal. If one farmer produces four quintals of jute per bigha and sells it at the MSP, he barely breaks even.

The jute crop is sown in early April and harvested in July. The crop is about 6-7 ft high at the time of harvest. But as tedious as the cultivation of the golden fibre is the process of extracting the fibre from the harvest. The jute crop is left to rot in water bodies for almost 15 days. Every jute farmer in the village has a small water body. In order to extract the jute, a person has to stand in waist-deep water in these ditches in the stench and pull out the fibres. The agricultural labourers who do the hard work are not from Hooghly; they come from Gosaba and other interior areas of the Sundarbans. Their daily wage is ₹400-500, a substantial expense for farmers. In this picturesque village which was known for quality, jute farmers are slowly switching to other crops like groundnut and sesame.

No demands or protests

The issue has also turned political. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, voters of Barrackpore on the eastern bank and Hooghly on the western bank voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and sent two M Ps to Parliament. The region has migrant workers from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh who have worked in the mills for two-three generations.

By 2021, the voters once again turned to the Trinamool Congress. With mills closing and the policies of the Centre being largely blamed for the crisis, Barrackpore BJP MP Arjun Singh started criticising the Jute Commissioner. The change in the party’s fortunes in Barrackpore created ripples not only locally, but in the entire BJP establishment. The State BJP vice-president, who vowed to protect the interests of jute workers and farmers, was summoned to Delhi and a meeting was arranged with Union Textile Minister Piyush Goyal. The development has also sparked speculation on whether Singh is using the crisis to warm up to the Trinamool Congress, the party he left in 2019 to join the BJP.

Curiously, there have hardly been any protests by trade unions in a State that has seen militant trade unionism in the past. There have been no demands that the mills open, nor have there been strikes. An administrator of a century-old jute mill in Hooghly said that there is no trade union left: “The older leaders are past their prime and a new leadership has not come up. This is an advantage as there is no interference in running the mills, but also poses problems as there is no one to take the issues relating to the mills to the people.”

West Bengal Labour Minister Becharam Manna publicly praised the labourers of the jute industry. “They do not strike even though they are suffering,” he said. The last incident of trade union-related violence in the State was reported in the Hooghly North Brook Jute Mill in July 2014 when workers killed the CEO over a dispute of wage cuts and Provident Fund (PF) cuts.

Dashed hopes?

As he stood a few metres away from the Weaverly Jute Mill, Rajkumar Yadav, one of the representatives of a national trade union, said he had high hopes from the tripartite meeting held of Central and State officials and stakeholders of the jute industry on May 9. A layer of dust on the mill gates made it difficult to read the notices pasted on it. The mill closed in November 2020. Yadav said the days of trade unionism were over. He claimed that several retired employees had not got their PF dues because the management did not deposit its share. “Hundreds of workers in each mill have not got their PF. But you will not see even a handful of complaints at the office of the Labour Commissioner,” he said. In almost all the mills, the workers and retired employees do not know who to approach if their PF is denied. “Sometimes they do not want to vacate the quarters,” the union leader said. The closed jute mills are also witnessing reverse migration, with workers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh going back to their homes after the mills closed.

Every closed jute mill is a unique story of despair. Gauripur Jute Mill has been closed since 1997. The workers remember that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had visited the area in 2010 and given assurances to the workers. Hanuman Jute Mill in Howrah closed in December 2021, New Central Jute Mill closed in 2015 in Bidge Bidge (South 24 Parganas) and Kolkata Jute Mill in January 2021 in the city.

Even the jute mills that are open hardly present a picture of hope. Not far from Reliance Jute Mill is Nadia Jute Mills which, according to the workers, is “operational somehow”. The mill workers’ quarters, which extend till the bank of the river, are in a dilapidated state. Last October, the roof of the workers’ quarters came crashing down and five people had to be rescued by firefighters. Arjun Majhi, a mill worker, said his cow died in the incident. “We do not know who owns and runs the mill. Who do we ask for repairs,” Arjun asked. The roofs of the quarters are hanging at several places, the pillars have tilted, and one water tap that was meant for over 20 families has dried up. The only object that stands as a reminder of the present is a large cut-out of Lord Ram with his bow and photographs of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee wishing people on Ram Navami. Everything else, including the fate of the workers and the industry they belong to, appears to be hanging by a thread.

NEW DELHI — Heavy pre-monsoon rains in India and Bangladesh have washed away train stations, towns and villages, leaving millions of people homeless as extreme weather events, including heat waves, intense rainfall and floods, become more common in South Asia.

More than 60 people have been killed in days of flooding, landslides and thunderstorms that have left many people without food and drinking water and have isolated them by cutting off the internet, according to officials.

The devastation in India’s northeast, one of the worst affected regions, has submerged railway tracks, bridges and roads. In the remote state of Assam, 31 of its 33 districts have been affected by floods, impacting the lives of more than 700,000 people, officials said on Saturday. At least 18 people have already died in the state because of floods and landslides, according to news reports.

At least 33 people were killed in the neighboring state of Bihar by lightning strikes and heavy rain in its 16 districts, Nitish Kumar, the chief minister, said on Friday.

Climate scientists have said that India and Bangladesh are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their proximity to the warm tropical waters of the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, which are increasingly experiencing heat waves. The rising sea temperatures have led to “dry conditions” in some parts of the Indian subcontinent and “a significant increase in rainfall” in other areas, according to a study published in January by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune.

On Sunday, India’s meteorological department warned of “thunderstorms with lightning and very heavy rainfall” in many parts of the country’s remote northeast where the Brahmaputra, one of the world’s largest rivers, has inundated vast areas of agricultural land, villages and towns over the past couple of weeks.

The floodwaters of the Brahmaputra and other rivers have arrived with fury in Bangladesh, a low-lying nation of about 170 million people, where extreme rainfall and landslides washed away a sprawling Rohingya refugee camp overnight last year. In 2020, torrential rains submerged at least a quarter of the country.

About two million people have been affected in the Sylhet region, in the country’s east, in what officials describe as one of the worst floods in many years.

“We haven’t seen such a widespread flood in Sylhet for around two decades,” S.M. Shahidul Islam, a chief engineer of the Bangladesh Water Development Board, said on Sunday.

“Heavy rainfall and increased flow of floodwater through the Surma River is the main reason for this situation,” said Mr. Islam, explaining that dams in the area are unable to hold the floodwaters that have started pouring into cities.

At least 10 people have been killed in the region, most drowning after their boats capsized while they were trying to move to safer areas, officials said on Sunday. “We still are working to see if there are more casualties,” said Mosharraf Hossain, the top official in the Sylhet region.

Roads cut off by floods have made relief efforts challenging, officials say. But the devastation has left millions of people with nothing.

“The flood situation is terrible in our village in Zakiganj,” said Mahmudul Hasan, 29, who was taking shelter with six family members in Sylhet.

The family has not received any food or water, said Mr. Hasan. And he said he was constantly worried about his home. “Our house is made of mud,” he explained.

The government of Bangladesh has closed nearly 600 schools and colleges indefinitely to use them as shelters for those who have nowhere to go. At least 3,000 hectares of rice paddy fields have been consumed by the flooding, which is expected to affect the livelihoods of thousands of farmers, officials said.

The Jammu and Kashmir administration and protesting Kashmiri Pandits engaged in a face-off on Wednesday, as the security forces disallowed street protests and stopped fear-stricken Pandit employees, recruited under the Prime Minister’s Rehabilitation Package since 2008, from leaving the Valley.

More than 4,000 Pandit employees have threatened to leave the Valley by Thursday morning. They have decided to go on mass migration, announced by their leaders, from various transit camps spread across the Valley.

“No Pandit employee was allowed to leave their locations by the police on Tuesday,” a Pandit employee, living in Srinagar’s Indira Nagar locality, said.

Kashmir has been witnessing daily protests by Kashmiri Pandits ever since Rahul Bhat, a Pandit government employee, was killed on May 12 inside his office at Chadoora in Budgam.

“Many of our neighbours living in the transit camps are in a deep cycle of depression because of Bhat’s killing. We see a bleak future for our kids in Kashmir. The latest killing of the schoolteacher, Rajni Bala, has further disturbed us mentally. It seems our lives have no value. In case the government does not come up with concrete measures, we will go for mass migration and leave for Jammu tomorrow,” a protesting employee said in Srinagar.

The Lieutenant-Governor administration is in talks with the leaders of the Pandit employees to address their demands. However, the administration has dropped broad hints that it was opposed to the idea of migration of employees from the Valley.

In the wake of the threat of mass resignation by those living in the transit camps, security was beefed up at all the camps at Nutnusa in Kupwara, Tulmulla in Ganderbal, Hall in Pulwama, Khanpur in Baramulla, Mattan in Anantnag and Vessu in Kulgam. Mobile bunkers were placed in the lanes leading to the houses of Pandit employees in Indira Nagar and Sheikhpora.

“It’s unfortunate that we were stopped from leaving the migrant camps. On the other hand, unauthorised absence is being marked in our attendance sheets in offices. Why?” another Pandit employee at the Sheikhpora transit camp said.

Meanwhile, a sit-in was held at the Vessu camp in Qazigund by Pandit employees. “We returned to Kashmir on the promise that the situation has improved here. However, since October last year Kashmiri Pandits have been targeted. What is our fault? Why are they doing it? We are clueless. I came here in 2010 to earn my livelihood. I am upset with those who promised us a safe and secure atmosphere in Kashmir on our return. Why are they silent now?” a Vessu-based Kashmiri Pandit employee said.

The growing fear among the minorities is palpable. The Mata Kheer Bhawani Asthapan Trust (MKBAT) has asked for the cancellation of the annual ‘mela’ due to the targeted killings of minorities in Kashmir. The annual yatra was scheduled to leave from Nagrota on June 5 for the Ragnya Devi temple in Tulmulla village of Ganderbal district. The temple attracts hundreds of Pandit devotees and the yatra is considered one of the main festivals by the community.

Kashmir witnessed a mass migration of Kashmiri Pandits in 1990 in the face of unprecedented militancy. However, then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2008 conceived a plan to help in the return of Pandits to their homeland and offered 6,000 jobs to migrants.

Around 3,800 migrants took up jobs in different departments in Kashmir and were living peacefully till December 2020 when a goldsmith was killed inside his shop on Hari Singh High Street in Srinagar, just days after he acquired the domicile certificate.

Since then, nearly 17 members from the minority communities have been killed in targeted attacks by militants. The fresh wave of attacks on minorities have come after the Centre ended J&K’s special status on August 5, 2019 and opened up jobs and land in the Union Territory (UT) to outsiders.

Safe posting soon

An official spokesman said the J&K administration’s General Administration Department (GAD) had set up a dedicated cell for resolving the grievances of minority employees in Kashmir.

Sources said the Kashmir administration was drafting an elaborate plan to shift all the Pandit employees, recruited under the PM package, from “vulnerable locations to safer places”, especially to the secure offices in district headquarters.

Sources said over 4000 Pandit employees would be posted to “safer locations” in 10 districts in the Kashmir Valley. The Srinagar administration has already relocated over 50 teachers of the education department to safer places.

Hard work at stake’

The political parties have been critical of the government’s poor response so far.

“The hard work of successive governments for the past three decades is at stake right now. The Government of India should immediately take a note and ensure a safe environment for Kashmiri Pandits. I wonder how happy Vivek Agnihotri (director of the Kashmir Files movie) must be now who spread hatred just for monetary benefit,” National Conference youth leader Salman Sagar said.

Leaders of the Congress, which is holding a two-day ‘Nav Sankalp’ workshop, expressed concern over the deteriorating security situation in Kashmir.

Inaugurating the workshop, AICC in-charge Rajani Patil said the series of targeted killings of innocents, including minorities, has induced fear and pain among the people of Kashmir. Ms. Patil demanded urgent measures to ensure safety and security of the common people, especially minorities.

Europe’s campaign to quit Russian fuel is designed to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. It’s also wreaking havoc thousands of miles away from the conflict, plunging Pakistan into darkness, undermining one regime and threatening the stability of the country’s new leadership.

A decade ago, the world’s fifth-most populous country took specific steps to insulate itself from the kinds of violent price spikes that are roiling the market today. It made a massive investment in liquified natural gas and signed long-term contracts with suppliers in Italy and Qatar. Now some of those suppliers have defaulted, though they continue to sell into the more lucrative European market, leaving Pakistan in exactly the position it tried so hard to avoid.

In order to avoid blackouts during the Eid holiday last month, the government paid nearly $100 million to procure a single LNG shipment from the spot market, a record for the cash-strapped nation. In the fiscal year ending July, the country’s costs for LNG could top $5 billion, twice what they were a year ago. Even so, the government can’t cushion the blow for its citizens: The International Monetary Fund is in talks to bail out the nation with a key condition that it cuts fuel and electricity subsidies.

Now parts of Pakistan are experiencing planned blackouts of more than 12 hours, limiting the effectiveness of air conditioning to offer relief during the ongoing heatwave. The previous prime minister continues to draw large crowds to rallies and protests, amplifying citizens’ anger about inflation that’s rising at 13.8%. Prime-time talk show hosts regularly discuss how Pakistan will get the fuel it needs, and how much it will have to pay.

Last week, the government announced a new raft of energy-saving measures. Civil servants were released from regular Saturday shifts, and the budget for security personnel was slashed 50%.

“I am acutely aware of the hardships people are facing,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a tweet in April ahead of the Eid holiday. He ordered his government to resume purchasing expensive overseas natural gas shipments that same week. And earlier this month he warned that they don’t have enough money to continue buying gas from overseas.

The supply crunch will go beyond blackouts. The government has redirected existing natural gas supplies to power plants, short-changing fertilizer makers that depend on the fuel as a feedstock. That move could threaten the next harvest, leading to even higher food costs next year. Cellphone towers are using backup generators to sustain service through the blackouts, but they too are running out of fuel.

There’s little reprieve on the horizon. The cost of LNG has surged by more than 1,000% in the last two years, first on post-pandemic demand, then on the Russia invasion of Ukraine. Russia is Europe’s biggest supplier of natural gas, and the threat of supply disruptions sent spot rates to a record in March.

Meanwhile, Europe has been demanding more and more LNG. So far this year, Europe’s LNG imports are up 50% from the same period last year and aren’t showing any sign of slowing down. Policymakers in the European Union drafted a plan to significantly increase LNG deliveries as an alternative to Russian gas as they break ties with President Vladimir Putin’s regime over the war in Ukraine. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands are fast-tracking the construction of floating import terminals, with the first ones slated to start within the next six months.

“Europe is sucking LNG” from the world, said Steve Hill, executive vice president at Shell Plc, the world’s top trader of the fuel. “But that means less LNG will go to developing markets.”

Not long ago, Pakistan represented the future for the LNG industry. By the mid-2010s, demand for the fuel – gas cooled to -162 degrees Celsius so it can be shipped around the world via tanker – had plateaued in developed markets. But technological advancements had brought down the costs and construction times for import terminals, and new gas fields cut the prices of the fuel itself.

At the new, lower prices, poorer countries could finally consider the fuel. Suppliers set their sights on these new markets, and when Pakistan issued a tender for long-term LNG supplies, more than a dozen companies bid for its business.

In 2017, Pakistan selected Italy’s Eni SpA and trading house Gunvor Group Ltd to supply the country with LNG into the next decade. At the time, the terms were considered good, and the prices were lower than a similar contract signed with Qatar the previous year.

Now, though, the two suppliers have canceled more than a dozen shipments scheduled for delivery from October 2021 through June 2022, coinciding with the surge in European gas prices.

Such defaults are almost unheard of in the LNG industry, said Bruce Robertson, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Traders and industry insiders interviewed by Bloomberg couldn’t remember the last time so many cargoes were scrapped without being directly related to a major outage at an export facility.

Eni and Gunvor have said they had to cancel because they’re facing their own shortages and don’t have the LNG to send to Pakistan. Typically when exporters face those kinds of challenges, they replace the deliveries by buying a shipment on the spot market, but Eni and Gunvor haven’t done that.

Gunvor declined to comment for this story. Eni’s supplier didn’t meet their obligation, and was therefore forced to default on shipments to Pakistan, the Italian company said in an emailed statement, also noting that it did not take advantage or benefit from the cancellations and applied all contractual provisions to manage such disruptions.

Suppliers are usually loathe to cancel. It damages the business relationship, and it’s often very, very expensive. Developed markets typically demand “failure to deliver” penalties of up to 100%. According to Valery Chow, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd., “it’s very rare for LNG suppliers to renege on long-term contracts beyond force majeure events.”

Pakistan’s contracts called for a more modest 30% penalty for cancellation, most likely in exchange for lower prices overall. At this point, prices in the European spot market are high enough to more than offset those penalties. An LNG shipment for May delivery to Pakistan via a long-term contract would cost $12 per million British thermal units, according to Bloomberg calculations. For comparison, a May delivery spot cargoes to Europe were being traded at over $30. Eni and Gunvor have continued to meet their commitments to clients there.

So now Pakistan is back to the drawing board, in a worse negotiating position than before. Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted in April after a fallout with Pakistan’s army over a range of issues, including his management of energy supplies and the larger economy.

The new prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has ordered the state-owned importer to procure the fuel at any cost to halt the crippling blackouts. It’s also trying to negotiate new long-term LNG purchase agreements, though the terms will certainly be worse than they were six years ago. The government “will go for the most favorable deal,” the Ministry of Energy said in a statement to Bloomberg News.

The expense is creating its own knock-on effects. The country is now “at high risk of default,” the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in a note published last month. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its outlook on Pakistan to negative from stable, citing financial concerns that includes a delay in an IMF bailout.

Pakistan’s reliance on LNG – and its suppliers’ willingness to default – has worsened the energy crisis in the country. And Pakistan isn’t alone. Emerging nations around the world are struggling to meet the needs of their citizens within the constraints of their budgets.

It’s also driven them to buy energy from Russia, dampening the effects of Europe’s efforts to cut them off.

In the face of financial crisis and massive oil shortages, Sri Lanka has turned to Russia to procure fuel. Pakistan is also exploring long-term contracts with Russian LNG suppliers. India has already boosted purchases from Russia, a trend that may accelerate. In response to the blistering summer heat, the government has ordered power plants to buy fuel from overseas.

Pakistan’s woes also bode poorly for other cash-strapped importers, including Bangladesh and Myanmar. The state-owned utility in Bangladesh recently procured the nation’s most expensive LNG shipments from the spot market to keep the grids running and industries stocked, while Myanmar has halted imports for the last year due to the run-up in prices.

Europe’s massive shift may prompt other countries, like India and Ghana, to rethink long-held plans to increase dependence on the super-chilled fuel. Governments would instead double down on dirtier-burning coal or oil, frustrating efforts to reach ambitious pollution-reduction targets this decade.

In a recent note, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of industry consultant FGE, sharply criticized European energy policies for creating “higher prices, economic scarcity and economic misery” around the world. “It is ok for Europe to decide what they want within their borders,” he wrote. “But it is unfair and unreasonable to export the mess abroad, especially to the developing world.”

Trains set afire in Kaimur and Chhapra districts of Bihar; MLA’s vehicle attacked in Bihar, BJP office vandalised; Railways cancels 34 trains amid uproar in several States; 15 police personnel injured, vehicles torched in Haryana

Thousands of youth across the country hit the streets demanding a rollback of “contractualisation” of jobs in the Indian Army, and Opposition parties, trade unions, farmers’ associations, youth organisations, and students’ outfits of various political affiliations joined in chorus to support the protests against Agnipath, the scheme to recruit soldiers on a four-year contract basis. These organisations started consulting each other on Thursday for forming a national platform against Agnipath. Opposition parties urged the Centre to withdraw the scheme considering national interest. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s (RSS) own trade union, the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS), though termed the protests politically motivated, and distanced itself from Agnipath.

Youth protested against the scheme in States like Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and Rajasthan, where the bulk of the army recruitment takes place. In Delhi, too, youth organisations held protests in solidarity with their counterparts in other States.

The Indian Railways said 34 trains had been cancelled and 72 trains are running late due to the protests and attacks against trains.

Violent protests continued in Bihar for the second day as protesters set afire train bogies in Kaimur and Chhapra districts, blocked train movements in Siwan, Ara (Bhojpur), Jehanabad, Nawada, Saharsha, Chhapra, and other places while road traffic too was disrupted at some places. As many as 22 trains were cancelled and five were stopped mid-way, said East Central Railway officials. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA Aruna Devi’s vehicle was attacked by protesters in Nawada, leaving her and some people accompanying her injured. The BJP office in Nawada too was vandalised by the violent protesters who were demanding the restoration of the old system of recruitment in defence services.

Fifteen police personnel, including two Station House Officers, sustained serious injuries and five government vehicles were torched at Haryana’s Palwal during the protests against the scheme. Districts such as Rohtak, Rewari, and Charkhi Dadri witnessed massive protests. Demonstrators blocked the Delhi-Jaipur highway in Gurugram for over six hours. Traffic was diverted at several points in Haryana and Rajasthan.

Protests broke out in different parts of Uttar Pradesh, too. In Bulandshahr, hundreds of youth gathered at the busy Bhood crossing demanding a rollback of the scheme. Holding the Tricolour in their hands, the youth raised slogans against the government and said the government was playing with their future. When the protesters blocked NH 91, the police had to use mild force, and at least eight persons were taken into custody. Similar outbursts were also seen in Unnao, Gonda, and Bareilly districts.

Opposition parties asked the Centre to withdraw the scheme immediately. Congress said the Agnipath scheme makes a mockery of military training. “It appears to us that the scheme makes a mockery of training; inducts into the defence forces an ill-trained and ill-motivated soldier, and discharges a disappointed and unhappy ex-soldier into the society,” former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told reporters at a joint press conference along with Ajay Maken and Sachin Pilot. The Congress leaders said that given the situation on the borders, it’s imperative that soldiers in defence forces are young, well-trained, motivated, happy, satisfied, and assured of their future. Stating that Agnipath scheme did not achieve any of these objectives, the party suggested a wide consultation

The Communist Party India-Marxist (CPI-M) said the scheme does disservice to India’s national interests. “Professional armed forces cannot be raised by recruiting ‘soldiers on contract’ for a period of four years. This scheme, to save pension money, severely compromises the quality and efficiency of our professional armed forces,” the Left party said in a statement.

Youth and student organisations have decided to step up the protests. “We are in touch with all youth and student organisations who are fighting against unemployment and the Agnipth scheme. This government is bringing a contract system even in patriotism. A national platform will soon be formed to take these protests forward,” Indian Youth Congress president Srinivas B.V. told The Hindu, drawing parallels to the protests against Citizenship Amendment Act.

Students Federation of India general secretary Mayukh Biswas said his organisation is part of the protests in Bihar and Rajasthan. “It will spread to Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and other States in the coming days. This policy will result in generating around 35,000 jobless recruits looking for other work each year, leading to a militarisation of society over time,” Mr. Biswas said, confirming that youth and students organisations are talking each other on the matter.

Trade unions have also voiced their concerns. BMS general secretary Binay Kumar Sinha said the BMS welcomed the announcement of filling 10 lakh posts in government but opposed the Agnipath scheme. “It is as good as making army personnel contract workers. This is not quality employment that will be provided under the scheme. This is a political announcement ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections,” Mr. Sinha said, adding that the ongoing protests were politically motivated and not a trade union action.

Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) leader Tapan Sen said the move would severely compromise as well as negatively affect the efficiency of the armed forces, militating against the country’s security as a whole and also the quality of employment, determination and professionalism, to the detriment of national interests.

Hind Mazdoor Sabha general secretary Harbhajan Singh Sidhu termed the move anti-national. “We have the highest rate of unemployment and inflation. This scheme is making a mockery of the plight of unemployed youth. We will form a joint strategy against this after a meeting with all like-minded students, youth, and farmers’ organisations. It is the responsibility of all citizens to fight this scheme. Where are they taking this country to? This is worse than the colonial regime,” Mr. Sidhu said.

The Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) has also come out against the scheme. Addressing a meeting in Haridwar, Rakesh Tikait, the BKU’s national spokesperson said farmers suffered for 13 months because of the wrong policies of the government, now the erroneous step would make youth suffer the consequences. “The government should know that the youth that joins the armed forces are sons of farmers. We will fight for the interests of our children till our last breath.”

Under the new scheme, around 46,000 soldiers between the ages of 17.5 and 21 years will be recruited into the three services this year.

The story so far: In a “transformative” military recruitment reform , the Centre has announced the Agnipath scheme for recruitment of soldiers in the three branches of the armed forces, on a short-term basis.

Under the scheme, youth between 17.5 to 21 years of age will be enrolled on an ‘All-India All-Class’ basis as soldiers for four years. These recruits, who will be known as ‘Agniveers’, will form a distinct rank bearing a distinct insignia in the respective forces. They will not be eligible for any pensionary benefit under the scheme. With this, the existing framework of employment for soldiers will cease to exist and those below officer rank — jawans in the Army, sailors in the Navy and airmen in Air Force — will be recruited into the three services through the Agnipath scheme. The scheme does not apply to defence officers for whom there is a provision of short-term service called the Short Service Commission or SSC.

Unveiling the scheme with the three service Chiefs, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the reforms will strengthen the security of the country and enable a youthful profile of the armed forces. “The infusion of disciplined, motivated and skilled Agniveers back into society after military service will be a great asset for the nation as it will be a win-win proposition,” the Defence Minister added

What are the features of the new scheme?

Aimed at reducing salaries and pensions to divert resources for military modernisation, the idea of a short-term recruitment model or ‘Tour of Duty’ (To D) was first mooted around two years back for the selection of officers and jawans, for a limited number of vacancies. The then Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat publicly acknowledged that the forces were considering the To D model, but added that the concept was at a nascent stage. While some welcomed the proposed model, many argued that it would do more harm than good to the armed forces.

After discussions for over two years, the Centre last month announced that the scheme was in its final stages. On June 14, the Union Cabinet approved the Agnipath scheme.

Eligibility and recruitment: As part of the Agnipath scheme, selected candidates will be enrolled under the respective Service Acts for four years. Those between the ages 17.5 and 21 years will be eligible to apply. Candidates below 18 years of age will have to get their enrolment forms signed by their parents or guardians. Medical and physical fitness standards will continue in accordance with existing norms for different categories and trades in the military.

The required educational qualification will be Class 10-12, depending on the service and assigned role. For instance, the educational qualification required for entry into General Duty soldier is Class 10.

This year, the Centre will recruit 46,000 Agniveers and the induction process will repeat every six months. While the Naval Chief has said that women will be part of the Navy as Agniveers, officials have stated that their recruitment will depend on the requirements of their respective services. The IAF, however, so far hasn’t made a mention of the selection of women under the scheme . Recruitment is set to begin in 90 days, from the date of the scheme being announced.

Training: Agniveers will undergo military training in existing training centres as per the requirements of the service they join and the role they are assigned. The training will go on for a maximum of six months, post which an Agniveer will be deployed for the remaining three and a half years. Chief of Army Staff General Manoj Pande has said that trained Agniveers will be capable of being deployed on the borders with Pakistan and China.

Selection process: An online centralised system will be used for enrolment of Agniveers with specialised rallies, and campus interviews from technical institutes like industrial training institutes (IT Is). The selection will be the exclusive jurisdiction of the armed forces, the three services have said.

Permanent enrolment: After four years of service are completed, Agniveers will be eligible to apply for permanent enrolment in the armed forces. Up to 25% of them will be selected on an objective basis and enrolled as regular cadre. They will have to serve for a further minimum of 15 years and their salary will be revised to that of a regular soldier. For these selected soldiers, existing terms of the service of Junior Commissioned Officers/Other Ranks (OR) in the Army and their equivalent in the other two forces will apply.

Adequate re-employment opportunities will be created for the rest 75% who will move out of the services and return to society, and according to the government will emerge as role models for the youth.

States such as Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh have announced that Agniveers will be given preference in police recruitments.

An Agniveer can be called back if the situation demands, particularly in case of a full-fledged war, Lt General K.K. Repswal, Chief of Staff, Eastern Command, had said.

What benefits will be extended to Agniveers?

In the first year of enrolment under the Agnipath scheme, an Agniveer will get a monthly salary of ₹30,000, which translates to an annual package of ₹4.76 lakh. The in-hand amount is estimated around ₹21,000. The remaining ₹9,000 will go to a corpus with an equal contribution from the government. In the second and third year of their service , an Agniveer will get ₹33,000 and ₹36,500 per month, respectively and ₹40,000 in the final year . In addition to monthly salary, these recruits will be paid allowances for travel and uniform. They will also be entitled to honours, and awards as per existing guidelines.

There will, however, be no pension or gratuity benefits for these recruits. Agniveers will contribute 30% of their salaries to a package called ‘Seva Nidhi’, and this amount will be matched by the government. This fund will accrue interest, and at the end of the four years, each soldier will get ₹11.71 lakh as a lump sum tax-free amount, which includes interest accumulated on the absolute amount of ₹10.04 lakh.

During service, an Agniveer will be entitled to avail medical facilities at service hospitals, along with canteen facilities. An Agniveer will be granted 30-day annual leave while sick leave will be based on medical advice.

The Agniveers will also be provided non-contributory life insurance cover of ₹48 lakh during their service in the armed forces.

In case of death during service, the next of kin of the deceased Agniveer will get insurance money, one-time ex gratia payment of ₹44 lakh, full pay for the unserved period along with the balance amount in the soldier’s Seva Nidhi fund and government contribution and interest accrued in the Agniveer Corpus Fund — which amounts to over ₹1 crore.

In case an Agniveer suffers a disability attributable or aggravated due to conditions of engagement, a provision of up to ₹44 lakh based on the percentage of disability, apart from full pay for the unserved period will be given. The soldier will also be given the balance amount in the Seva Nidhi fund and the Centre’s contribution from the Agniveer Corpus Fund.

In addition, Agniveers will get skill certificates, awards of credits so that they can study further, and a financial package to support future endeavours after their short-term military service.

Can an Agniveer leave service at any time?

No. As per the brief shared by the Air Force, an Agniveer will not be permitted to leave the service before completing the engagement period. “…except in exceptional cases, with approval of the Competent Authority,” it adds.

Concerns over Agnipath scheme

The Defence Ministry has maintained that the scheme has been designed to enable a “youthful profile” of the armed forces. In a statement, the Ministry said, “The scheme will enhance the youthful profile of the armed forces and provide a fresh lease of ‘Josh’ and ‘Jazba’,” whilst bringing about a transformational shift towards more tech-savvy armed forces which it said is the need of the hour. At present, the average age profile of serving personnel in the Army is 32 years, which will come down to 26 years over a period of time with Agnipath scheme, ministry officials noted.

Several defence experts, however, have raised concern over the Agnipath model and the future of Agniveers, asking the Government to fix gaps, which could have an adverse impact on the capabilities of the defence services. They point out that the reform is primarily being introduced to slash the growing salary and pension bills of the three services. Safeguarding national security should be of paramount importance for the Government, they say. In the Union Budget 2022-23, ₹5.25 lakh crore were allocated to defence. Of this, defence pensions added up to ₹1.19 lakh crore.

Many have taken to Twitter to point out the “flaws” with the Agnipath scheme. “Death knell for armed forces, To D not tested, NO pilot project, straight implementation. Will also lead to Militarization of society, nearly 40,000(75%) youth year on year back rejected & dejected without a job, semi trained in arms ex Agniveers. Not a good idea. No one gains,” Lt. Gen. Vinod Bhatia, ex-Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) wrote in a tweet.

In reply, Major General Yash Mor (retired) tweeted, “…More than anything else we feel for lakhs who have lost all hope of recruitment in the past two years. Service headquarters too appear to be reluctant to implement this.” The veteran was referring to the suspension of the recruitment process for the last two years due to COVID.

In another tweet, he said that the armed forces should not be looked at from an economic point of view. “Military life and career can't be evaluated from money saved to the exchequer. Looking to be difficult to implement the scheme, with negative connotations in all aspects,” the retired officer added.

Concerns have also been raised about the employability of the 75% who will return to the civil world after serving for four years in the armed forces. On Wednesday, however, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs announced that the youth recruited under the Agnipath scheme will get priority in recruitment to the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) and Assam Rifles.

Embattled Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray announced his resignation from the post on Wednesday, moments after the Supreme Court refused to stay Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari’s direction to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government to take a floor test in the Assembly on Thursday.

"I am not the one who will stick to power. From today [Wednesday] morning, my workers are being sent notices by police. Central forces are here. Army might be called. Those who should have been at China borders will be here. I don't want to see blood of my workers spilling on the roads of Mumbai. Today, I resign from the post of Chief Minister," Mr. Thackeray said in a virtual address to the public

Mr. Thackeray said he was also quitting as a Member of the Legislative Council and added that he would only concentrate on party work. "I never said I will return. I never wanted to be here at this place, but I came. From now on, I will be fully with you," he told Shiv Sena workers.

Late in the evening, Mr. Thackeray submitted his resignation to Mr. Koshyari at the Raj Bhavan in Mumbai. The Governor accepted the resignation of Mr. Thackeray and asked him to officiate as the Chief Minister until alternate arrangements are made.

Setback in Supreme Court

Earlier, in a setback to the Uddhav Thackeray faction, the Supreme Court refused to stay the floor test called for by Mr. Koshyari on June 30 to test the Maha Vikas Aghadi government's claim of majority in the House.

"We are not staying the floor test," a Vacation Bench of Justices Surya Kant and J.B. Pardiwala briefly informed the warring Shiv Sena factions after taking half-an-hour recess to deliberate in their chambers following a marathon hearing which spanned four hours, starting at 5 p.m.

The court, however, said it would hear on merit the writ petition filed by Thackeray loyalist Sunil Prabhu, challenging the process leading to the call for floor test, on July 11 along with petitions filed by Sena dissidents led by Eknath Shinde, who has questioned the disqualification proceedings initiated against them.

"Tomorrow's proceedings (floor test) will be subject to the final outcome of these petitions in court," the Bench addressed the lawyers.

The court had urgently heard the challenge to the floor test amid the frenzy of political churnings in Maharashtra. "The urgency that has been created requires us to hear the matter today itself," Justice Kant submitted.

The decision in favour of allowing the floor test came after the Governor and the dissident ML As held that delaying the trust vote would be the "anti-thesis of democracy" and "give more time for horse-trading in Maharashtra".

The Thackeray camp argued that the trust vote cannot be held when the disqualification proceedings against 16 rebel Sena ML As, including Mr. Shinde, were pending and being examined by the Supreme Court. They said the dissidents were an "artificial majority".

Three-party experiment

With Mr. Thackeray's resignation, the unique three-party experiment of the MVA, in which the Shiv Sena tied up with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), has come to an end. The BJP, which is the single-largest party in the Assembly with 106 ML As, is likely to stake claim to form the government.

Several BJP legislators and senior leaders gathered at the residence of former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in Mumbai and congratulated each other over the collapse of the MVA government.

Former Minister and BJP leader Chandrashekhar Bawankule said that “the truth prevailed, finally”.

“This govt which stopped the development of the State for two and half years has gone. We will bring in new era of development,” BJP MLA Atul Bhatkhalkar said.

The resignation of Mr. Thackeray has however raised the question on the future of the rebel ML As who had revolted against him under the leadership of second-in-command Mr. Shinde.

As Leader of the Opposition Mr. Fadnavis is set to stake claim to the Chief Minister’s post for the third time, he will now have to seek support from Mr. Thackeray who will continue to be the Sena chief.

Mr. Shinde had revolted against the Sena chief with 39 ML As and had been stationed in Guwahati since June 22. He had demanded that Mr. Thackeray should snap ties with the Congress and the NCP for the sake of Hindutva. With Mr. Thackeray resigning, Mr. Shinde will have little option but to approach him.

“Those who were promoted by Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray are trying to pull down his son from the CM post. I asked them to come and sit in front of me to discuss. They said they have numbers and if that’s the democracy for them, then I am not interested in a democracy that believes in head count,” Mr. Thackeray said in his address.

Mr. Thackeray appealed to party workers to not obstruct the ML As coming to Mumbai. "I don't want to see your blood on streets. If any opposition is against me, I won't bother. But if a single person whom once I considered mine is against me then I am not happy," he said.

He thanked the Congress and the NCP for supporting him at a time when his own betrayed him.

"I must appreciate the concern of Governor for democracy who ordered the floor test in 24 hours. I only want to remind him that appointment of 12 ML Cs is pending for over one and half years," he said.

Earlier, Mr. Thackeray attended a Cabinet meeting at the Mantralaya on Wednesday evening where he thanked his administration for the cooperation in the past two and half years. “Despite being of different ideologies, you supported me throughout but I was backstabbed by my own partymen,” Mr. Thackeray said in the meeting, addressing his Cabinet colleagues, according to NCP state president Jayant Patil.

Governor’s order Mr. Koshyari on Wednesday morning directed Mr. Thackeray to prove the government’s majority on June 30.

Directing the Secretary of the Legislative Assembly to convene a special one-day session by exercising his power under Article 174 and 175(2), Mr. Koshyari, in his letter, stated that “floor test for proving the majority of the Chief Minister is imperative to ensure that the government continues to function with the confidence of the house”.

The letter from Mr. Koshyari stated that apart from news reports in print and electronic media regarding 39 ML As withdrawing support from the MVA government, an email dated June 28 from seven Independent ML As had also been received by the Raj Bhavan which stated that the Chief Minister had lost the confidence of the majority on the floor of the house.

He also mentioned that the Leader of Opposition visited him on the same date and briefed him about the present political situation in the State submitting a letter stating that the Chief Minister had lost the majority and requesting for a floor test at the earliest to avoid any political bargaining by undemocratic means.

While it also mentioned about possible violence and threats to rebel ML As, Mr. Koshyari’s letter directed that adequate security be provided outside and inside the Assembly to maintain “the sanctity of the voting process and also to preempt any law and order situation which may arise”.

As per the directions, the special session will have only one agenda of a trust vote against the Chief Minister and the proceedings should be concluded in any case by 5 p.m. on the same day and it shall not be adjourned for any reason whatsoever. All the proceedings will be live telecast and voting will be conducted by asking the members to rise in their seats.

The Shiv Sena, which is faced with a rebellion against Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray by party’s second-in-command Eknath Shinde and 38 other ML As, approached the Supreme Court demanding stay on the Governor’s order of convening a session at a time when proceeding of disqualification against 16 rebel ML As was pending.

Deputy Speaker Narhari Zirwal had issued notices to 16 ML As against which they had approached the top court.

The court, in an urgent hearing, extended the time given to them to submit their reply till July 12.

“How can the Governor ask the government to prove its majority when disqualification proceedings are pending?” asked Sena Lok Sabha MP Arvind Sawant also questioning the urgency at which Mr. Koshyari issued the orders.

Meanwhile, the rebel Sena ML As who were stationed in Guwahati since June 22 were taken to Goa on Wednesday evening and from there they are scheduled to be brought to Mumbai for floor test. Prior to leaving, all the ML As were taken to Kamakhya temple in Guwahati to seek blessings. “We will be in Mumbai on Thursday to vote in the floor test,” Mr. Shinde said before leaving.

One of the rebel Shiv Sena ML As, Bharat Gogawale, on Wednesday night said they will hold meetings at a five-star hotel in Goa where they are staying for the night and discuss their next steps.

“It is not like we are very happy with the decision of Uddhav Thackeray stepping down as the CM. We are heading towards our hotel. Once we reach there, we will discuss the issue and decide our next steps. He (Thackeray) tried to convince us,” Mr. Gogawale said.

Amidst the political imbroglio in Maharashtra, the Governor has directed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) Government to take a 'floor test' and demonstrate that it still enjoys the confidence of the Legislature on the floor of the Legislative Assembly on June 30.

W Hile the Constitution of India does not contemplate that the political party which forms the Ministry should have a majority in the Legislature, the Council of Ministers should command the confidence of the Legislature, which enjoys the will of the people. The floor test upholds the collective accountability of the elected government to the legislature. The principle of democracy enshrined in the Constitution demands that the issue, whether the Government commands the confidence of the House be left to a vote in the Legislative Assembly. An exception to this rule can be made only under extraordinary situations, where because of the existence of 'all pervasive atmosphere of violence', the members of the House 'cannot express their opinion freely'(Justice Jeevan Reddy's judgment in SR Bommai case). Generally, the Governor is approached to summon the House when it is not in session. However, when in session a no confidence motion can be initiated following the procedure mentioned in the Rules of the concerned House.

(For example Lok Sabha;Rule 198). Governor can ask Government to prove majority in floor testIn Shivraj Singh Chouhan v. Speaker, Legislative Assembly of Madhya Pradesh And Ors., the Supreme Court clarified that the Governor is empowered to issue a direction to an incumbent Chief Minister to hold a floor test and to demonstrate the Legislature's trust in their Government. In this regard it is pertinent to mention that the Governor is also entrusted with the constitutional authority to require the Council of Ministers to prove their majority on the floor of the House right after the general elections are held. In the said judgment the Apex Court had acknowledged that the largest number of precedent before it had dealt with floor tests called upon at the time of formation of the Government, but emphasised that the Governor is, nonetheless, empowered to direct 'floor test' of an incumbent Council. In case a floor test is required at the initial stage of formation of the Government; when the elected members of the legislature are yet to take oath and the Speaker is not elected, a Protem Speaker is appointed to conduct it. As per convention, the senior most member of the House is called upon by the Governor to assume the role of the Protem Speaker. In G. Parameshwara v. Union of India(Karnataka assembly case 2018), the Supreme Court directed the appointment of a Protem Speaker for the purpose of conducting the floor test. The procedure enumerated by the Court in the Karnataka assembly case(a case where the question was which coalition was in majority soon after elections) was as under - "A). Pro-tem Speaker shall be appointed for the aforesaid purpose immediately.

B). All the elected members shall take oath tomorrow(19.05.2018) and this exercise shall be completed before 04.00 p.m.

C) The Pro-tem Speaker shall conduct the Floor Test on 19.05.2018 at 04.00 P.M. in order to ascertain the majority.

D) Adequate and sufficient security arrangements shall be made and Director General of Police, State of Karnataka will himself supervise the said arrangements so that there is no lapse on this count whatsoever."

A similar procedure was laid down by the Supreme Court for conducting the floor test in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly for formation of the Government in 2019. Soon after the 2019 general elections, when uncertainty arose as to which coalition had majority, Shiv Sena had approached the Supreme Court, and acting on its petition, the Court directed the Governor to hold floor test and set a deadline for it(Shiv Sena vs Union of India).

Floor test to be conducted immediately to prevent "horse-trading"

The reason behind the insistence on conducting the floor test at the earliest, as elucidated in Shiv Sena (supra), is the possibility of horse trading. Therefore, the Supreme Court is of the view that an immediate floor test is the most effective mechanism to protect the democratic value.

"In a situation wherein, if the floor test is delayed, there is a possibility of horse trading, it becomes incumbent upon the Court to act to protect democratic values. An immediate floor test, in such a case, might be the most effective mechanism to do so", the bench of Justices NV Ramana, Ashok Bhushan and Sanjiv Khanna said in the order.

Court can ask for house to be summoned specifically for the purpose of floor test

On several occasions the Supreme Court had passed directions to conduct floor test. In Shiv Sena And Ors. v. Union of India And Ors, when the Solicitor General had argued that Article 212 bars the Courts from monitoring the proceedings of the House, the Apex Court referred to its earlier judgments to demonstrate that it had previously summoned the Assembly solely for the purpose of putting the vote of confidence to test. In Jagdambika Pal v. Union of India, the Supreme Court had directed the Uttar Pradesh Assembly to be summoned for having a composite floor-test. When there are more than one person claiming stake at Chief Ministership, a composite floor test between the contending parties is required to determine which one has a majority in the House. As a measure to maintain transparency, on occasions, the Supreme Court, while issuing directions to conduct a floor test had asked the entire proceeding to be video-graphed for its perusal. In Union of India v. Harish Chandra Singh Rawat And Anr., the Supreme Court had appointed the Principal Secretary, Legislative and Parliamentary Affairs as an observer to ensure neutrality and to see to it that absolute objectivity is maintained in the process of conducting the floor test. The Court explained the purpose of appointing an observer as -

"..to save the sanctity of democracy which is the basic feature of our Constitution. The Court, being the sentinel on the qui vive of the Constitution is under the obligation to see that the democracy prevails and not gets hollowed by individuals…The collective trust in the legislature is founded on the bedrock of the constitutional trust. This is a case where one side even in the floor test does not trust the other and the other claims that there is no reason not to have the trust. Hence, there is the need and there is the necessity to have a neutral perceptionist…" - Union of India v. Harish Chandra Singh Rawat (supra), order dated 9th May, 2016.

Court can't compel members to be present for floor test

In a floor test the Chief Minister has to establish a majority among those present and voting. The failure to prove majority is followed by the resignation of the Chief Minister and their Council of Ministers. The Courts are not empowered to issue directions that a floor test cannot be conducted if any one or more Members do not remain present in the Assembly.

"Whether or not to remain present is for the individual Members to decide and they would, necessarily be accountable for the decisions which they take, both to their political party and to their constituents."- Justice D.Y. Chandrachud in Shivraj Singh Chouhan v. Speaker (supra)

However, to ensure presence/voting in the Assembly, political parties can issue whip, the non-compliance of which might lead to disqualification.

It needs to be made plain that the Governor does not enjoy the power to decide whether the Government commands confidence of the House by way of an independent verification without directing a floor test to be conducted. Where the Governor is satisfied that the incumbent Government does not possess the support of the majority in the legislative assembly, they would call upon the Chief Minister to 'face the Assembly and prove his majority within the shortest possible time'.

Chief Minister's refusal to take floor test can be construed as lack of majority

As per an unanimous report submitted by a committee of Governors appointed by the President of India, which was referred to in the judgment of Justice BP Jeevan Reddy in S.R. Bommai v. Union of India, if the Chief Ministers fails to comply with the order to take a vote of confidence, the Governor would be duty bound to take steps to form an alternative Ministry. The Chief Minister's refusal to take the test could be construed to, prima facie, indicate that they do not enjoy the confidence of the Legislature.

It has been recognized by the Apex Court that the Governor, being the titular head of the executive, is entrusted with the authority to ensure that the elected government continues to possess the confidence of the Legislative Assembly, but the accountability of the executive to the legislature should not be compromised with.

"However, it is important to note that in directing a trust vote, the Governor does not favour a particular political party. It is inevitable that the specific timing of a trust vote may tilt the balance towards the party possessing a majority at the time the trust vote is directed. All political parties are equally at risk of losing the support of their elected legislators, just as the legislators are at risk of losing the vote of the electorate." - Justice D.Y. Chandrachud in Shivraj Singh Chouhan v. Speaker (supra)

Court allowed rebel ML As to skip floor test in Karnataka assembly case 2019

A similar view was taken in Pratap Gouda Patil And Ors. v. State of Karnataka And Ors(Karnataka assembly case of 2019).The Apex Court permitted the Karnataka Legislative Assembly to go ahead with the impending floor test, refusing to fix a time frame for the speaker to take a decision with respect to the resignation of the dissident ML As. While passing the order, the Bench noted -

"The imperative necessity, at this stage, is to maintain the constitutional balance and the conflicting and competing rights that have been canvassed before us." - Pratap Gouda Patil And Ors. (supra), order dated 17th July, 2019.

The Court also said in that case that the rebel ML As are at liberty to remain out of the floor test proceedings.

"We also make it clear that until further orders, the 15 members of Assembly ought not to be compelled to participate in the proceedings of the ongoing session of the House and an option should be given to them that they can take part in the said proceedings or to opt to remain out of the same", ordered the Court.