German Politics Thread

The Af D is currently (according to polls) the second strongest party in Germany, and so far, their support has only growing. And yes, I know that this still means that the majority of Germans are NOT electing the Af D, but it is creeping roughly into the area of the support the NSDAP had. Frankly, I can't feel comfortable with this. We should know better.

Edited by Swanpride on Sep 6th 2018 at 1:08:02 AM

One problem I see here is that there are many who silently support the AFD because they don't want to be publicly branded as Nazi, which leads to a huge discrepancy in the polls.

Kinda similar how Trump and the Brexit were behind in polls but then suddenly won with a lead.

Since AFD supporters see themselves as anti-establishment and believe that the media is part of said establishment, getting bad press only validates them in their views but also gives them the feel to keep quiet about it to not become a social-pariah.

This is dangerous because if they keep quiet about having such views it is near impossible to confront them in any way and thus the support for these groups keeps festering beneath the surface.

Edited by Kiefen on Sep 6th 2018 at 11:00:16 AM

The USA general election polls were also trickier due to the EC — it was essentially 50 mini elections. 538 gave Trump about 30% odds, which is not nothing.

Plus, I don't want Germany to end up like the US or the UK either. We need to nip this in the bud.

That needed doing in 2008/2009 with a major restructuring of how the global financial sector works. Because the right wing never does as well as it currently is across the world without major economic disruption and its ripples.

Unfortunately, it didn't happen. Seriously, this fuck-up is way bigger than Germany or even the failures of both neoliberalism and ordoliberalism. And, we're going to have to endure more of this political and social disruption before the pendulum shift can happen again.

Strap in guys: it looks like we have another decade or two of crap to wade through. -_-

The Brexit vote was also complicated by the fact that the voting process for it was handled rather sloppily. And a lot of the British media was very much pro-Brexit and had been for decades long before the referendum vote itself. Wyldchyld has repeatedly explained the whole sorry mess.

Yeah, I guess Brexit and Trump weren't as good examples after all.

Apart from the fact that both these incidents were a lot more complicated than just right-wing populism, but others have explained that better so I won't say more to that.

In my view, the AFD is a crisis-party. They thrive as long as there is chaos and social disruption. When people are afraid, some tend to vote radical. They look for easy solutions and groups to blame and populist promise both. But that only works for so long. Once a situation stabilizises and calms down the AFD will lose votes fast.

That is also the reason, why I don't believe and I am sceptical towards anyone who does, that the AFD is even remotely interested in actually solving any of the problems they complain about. It is not in their interest. Why should one vote for the radicals, if there is nothing to be radical about anymore?

So, perpetuating the hatred and sowing chaos is very much in the interest of any non-government radical-right party. Similar for such parties who are in the government, like in Poland or Hungary. They need enemies and fear and hatred to justify their methods and corruption. If Poland or Hungary would ever get out of their economical and political quagmire these parties would be a lot of trouble, which in turn motivates them to never actually solve any of those problems and keep their nations in perpetual low-key chaos.

Long story, short: One solution to combat the AFD is not panic or doomsaying, but calm, methodical problem-solving. Integration, upholding of the law and continued economical growth. Nothing is sillier than a guy screaming about the end of the world, while everybody is at peace and content.

Edited by TheNohen on Sep 6th 2018 at 12:30:01 PM

The only thing the Afd really has going for it is "But the MUSLIMS!" Sometimes they shit on other foreigners and immigrants, but they always go for the brown people first.

I don't know if things are bad enough in Germany for that to be enough, but I really hope not.

And of course the Afd doesn't really give a flying fuck about the actual problems in the country. Rightwing populists never do. It's always about the nationalism and the bigotry with a side of opportunistic selfish greed.

But while one shouldn't necessarily panic without reason, it's also a good idea to avoid complacency. So vote regularly and try to encourage others to do the same if you're in a position to do so.

And yeah, that was another factor in the Trump victory. The USA voter participation rate suuuucks. Blame decades of propaganda telling us all politicians suck and the needless hassle that comes with registering to vote. It also doesn't help that some states still don't have options like online voting registration or even the option to mail in your ballots.

Edited by M84 on Sep 6th 2018 at 6:48:55 PM

Personally, I think as long as the next years stay reasonably calm and stable, they will begin to lose ground. Especially, if they get involved with actual governing and will, inevitably, screw it up.

In that regard, I actually see the upcoming election in Bavaria as a potential win. If the CSU really is so stupid and engages the A Fd in a coalition, it would mean the end of the Union, which was getting more inconvenient than useful in the last few years anyway, and probably spell the end for both parties. CSU because they would lose all credibility and their core-voters, not to mention the upcoming CDU rivalry as the conservatives will not give up Bavaria without a fight, and the AFD will get into the line of fire for the inevitable dumpster-fire that their administration will become.

That is a optimistic view, I know. But one, I don´t think will be that unlikely.

One has to add that, even with all the doomsaying, germany is actually pretty stable and well-off. The economy is growing, even in the east, and while society has to grapple with immigration, is not as tough a battle as it was a few years ago. We germans just have a penchant for complaining.

I would be much more worried, if we would one day say that everything is fine and dandy and that our government cannot possibly do any wrong! The last time that happened, a war broke out...

Edited by TheNohen on Sep 6th 2018 at 1:09:00 PM

The scary thing is that the AD is that strong despite our current prosperity. Germany is not a paradise of course, but experiences by all indications a Golden Age. Imagine if things were like the late 90s and early 2000s.

Such developments always come with a certain delay in public perception. People may think their nation is going down the drain, despite an economic surplus, because that development didn't had the time to sink into the public mindset yet. For example, Obama and then Trump...

Keep also in mind that, while germany experiences an economic golden age, the social situation is strained due to the massive influx of refugees and immigrants in a short amount of time. That too, can sway public perception.

In the end, keeping the situation stable to let the fact sink in, that we're actually pretty well off and that the immigrants did not bring the end of time, as some "predicted", and things will calm down again.

That is what I think, at least.

Edited by TheNohen on Sep 6th 2018 at 2:58:24 PM

It all boils down to the fear of the "other". It's the bread and butter of the populist. Especially if said "other" follows a different creed and looks and sounds different. All you need then is to cherry pick times they did something awful and publicize the hell out of them. Then they sit back and let humans' tribalist lizard brain bullshit do the rest.

Sure, it's easier if the economy sucks, but that's not strictly needed. The populists may be shit when it comes to actual leadership and diplomacy and management and well, everything government is supposed to do, but they are good at the demonization game.

That's how the ridiculous "economic anxiety" argument gained so much traction in the USA despite Obama actually improving the economy after Dubya fucked it all to hell. I personally think it also persists because a lot of people still don't want to acknowledge that bigotry in the USA is just that potent. And it provided the comforting lie that all Trump supporters would turn on Trump if the economy doesn't get better. But like I said...they don't really care about that. As long as Trump tells them it's okay to hate and that their problems are due to anyone but themselves, they will follow him.

Edited by M84 on Sep 6th 2018 at 9:09:04 PM

I think we (and most of the media) look at this from the wrong perspective. This doesn't happen because of the financial crisis or because of Merkel allowed a few refuges in or even because the former east still can't keep up with the West. All those things, they are not the REASON, they are the EXCUSE.

Let's follow the line back. We had the attack on refuge homes in the 1990s. We had the murder series of the NSU....hell, they operated over years and had a number of supporters. And that was in the early 2000s. We had the Af D nearly making it into parliament in 2013, long before the Refugee crisis happened.

Nothing about this is new. What is new is that there is now a targeted disinformation campaign happening in the background which strokes hatred and fears which already existed. So we need to tackle the troll farms, and we need to continue our work to keep the youth away from right-wing groups. And apparently we also need to clean up the police at some places and take a really, really good look at out Verfassungsschutz. And we need to do it NOW, before the whole matter goes out of control even further. We already have a part of Germany in which foreigners have to fear for their lives. This can't be allowed. It just can't!!!!

I agree that we need to clean up certain areas of our government and society. Keeping the boat steady under Merkel is all well and good, but after more than a decade of status quo, some reforms may be needed.

However, I have to point out that 2013 the AFD was still only an eurosceptic party and a far cry from right-radical populist they are now. While eurosceptism is still not a nice platform, I don´t think their early success back then is an indicator of german racism.

I will point out that this wasn't actually true for Trump, as far as I know there was no shy Trumpster effect. Rather Clinton was in the lead until Comey's letter and then he took the lead and narrowly won.

Now obviously it doesn't mean that there can't be that effect for the AFD but it turned out to be nothing in the US so if I were you I would take that idea with a grain of salt until there's some evidence to support it.

Sure, but even back then there was a serious danger of it getting undermined by the far right...and do I really have to remind you where Lucke stood on LGBT issues and what what kind of gender politics he stood for? There was a reason why someone added a Hitler beard to a lot of election posters featuring him in my hometown.

The founder of the Af D might now be horrified about what they unleashed, but that is more because someone removed the thin veneer of respectability the party used to have. It's like the difference between Republicans and Trumpists. They might be shocked when people march through Charlottsville and able to find the right words to address it (unlike Trump), but that doesn't change the fact that the policies they push for are often racist, sexist and anti-gay.

Edited by Swanpride on Sep 6th 2018 at 6:57:22 AM

Yes, M84 already pointed that out to me, it really wasn't the same.

Oops, missed that.

My bad.

Chemnitz violence: 'No evidence' far-right chased foreigners, says intelligence chief

Saw that. I hope the Government is kicking him out asap.

First the Af D advising allegations

Then him covering up the his agency had covert people with Anti (The terrorist who drove into a Christmas market)

Now this.

Seriously, fuck this guy...

Edited by 3of4 on Sep 7th 2018 at 9:47:33 PM

Best part about this was, that when he was pressed into explaining who would actually benefit from "faking" the racist attacks, he could not give a satisfying answer. Like he put this theory forward that the right was conspired against and unwarrantly accused, but could not even name a guilty party...

Frankly HOW is THIS guy responsible to protect our democracy from extremist movements? Da ham wir wohl den Bock zum Gärtner gemacht.

Please tell me that this will reason enough to remove him...and replace him with someone carefully vetted.

He does have a pretty interesting CV.

The CDU fraction in the Bundestag is apparently against openly calling for his resignation, according to the Tageschau. They rather want to do the 'reasonable' thing and have him testify before the Interior Commitee and then 'react accordingly'

Which is pretty much a weakass attempt to drag his arse out of the firing line, as I see it. The SPD is fuming (and Seehofer's attitude is not helping).

And according to the Kanzleramt, Maassen has not even informed the Chancellor of his thesis.