A thread to discuss electric vehicles and hybrid technology. No politics, please.
Technology, commercial aspects and marketing are all on-topic.
- Companies (e.g. Tesla Inc.) are only on-topic when discussing their electric vehicle products and research, not their wider activities. The exception is when those wider activities directly impact (or are impacted by) their other business areas - e.g. if electric vehicle development is cut back due to losses in another part of the business.
- Technology that's not directly related to electric vehicles (e.g. general battery research) is off-topic unless you're discussing how it might be used for vehicles.
- If we're talking about individuals here, that should only be because they've said or done something directly relevant to the topic. Specifically, posts about Tesla do not automatically need to mention Elon Musk. And Musk's views, politics and personal life are firmly off-topic unless you can somehow show that they're relevant to electric cars.
Also, posting this late, so sorry for any misspellings I might have left in there.
(Mod edited to replace original post)
Edited by Mrph1 on Mar 29th 2024 at 4:14:39 PM
Lost in Space
Speaking of free advertising, Andrew Yang drives a Tesla Model X in his latest campaign ad
(CleanTechnica). He uses it to make a point about automation driving job losses in manufacturing, underscoring his belief that we need a minimum basic income to compensate.
Now, I have significant issues with the narrative that technological obsolescence is specifically responsible for the stagnation of America's blue-collar sector, but Yang's appeal to the tech-aware demographic is not something that can be ignored. More on-topic, we can't ignore a discussion about the effects that fully autonomous driving will have on employment in the transportation sector.
Note that this last point properly belongs in the Self-Driving topic, so I'll crosspost it. The main reason for putting it here is the advertising element.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 24th 2020 at 10:08:46 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
Consider exactly why manufacturers would be unwilling to stake their entire EV production capability on the technology and production of a competitor. It's complete child's play to then destroy your competition down the line by not renewing a license, or claiming production shortages and having less available for others to use, or simply refusing to sell entirely and watching them flounder hopelessly. Nobody wants to end up in that position reliant entirely on Tesla's good will or to enable a technological monopoly.
And of course they can't assume that batteries will be available at scale if someone has been making efforts to buy up battery manufacturers.
It's not a market that automative manufacturers can easily jump into due to being so unrelated to anything they already do (just look at Intel's trouble and effort to actually make a discrete GPU when it already has silicon manufacturing foundries and prior experience and former engineers for AMD and Nvidia)—and if you need to release EVs some time before that. Those backed by much larger industrial corporations could probably move into it, but it would be really up in the air whether that would be tied to the car-producing division anyway.
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Lost in Space
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
You aren't wrong. Despite all the evidence, people don't take Tesla's claim to be in it for the future of humanity at face value. Fine, that's their choice. The major automakers are crippled in their adoption of EV platforms by their extremely wide supply chains. They don't build entire cars; mostly they build engines and assemble the final product from all the components built by their suppliers.
Retooling entire supply chains in this scenario is incredibly difficult and expensive, which is why Tesla has been so successful with its vertical integration.
So what is the answer? If you don't trust Tesla, as you have made absolutely clear, then do we wait decades for the auto industry to lumber and stumble its way into full-scale EV production? Do we accept that the major autos will mostly go out of business and a new crop of companies will take their place?
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 24th 2020 at 10:22:45 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
Circuitously, EVs need to be more widely popular so that manufacturers in general put emphasis on them, which would increase demand for component parts, which would then (assuming supply and demand works) be filled by another party. But that needs either consumer demand or manufacturer desire for mass-production first to get started.
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Lost in Space
And who is kicking that feedback loop into motion? You get three guesses.
FYI, as far as my "Tesla bias" is concerned, I've said many times that my major stake in this conversation is my belief in a clean-energy future. I don't own Tesla stock, nor do I own an EV (yet), but I am determined that my next car will be electric, and when I look around at the choices, there really is only one that makes any sense. Maybe that'll change in the next 3 years.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 24th 2020 at 10:26:23 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
Even Ford started mostly vertically integrated, so it's not really surprising.
Hell, a good comparison can be made with Intel (and also a lot of the concerns); being both manufacturers and (in many areas) developers and owning a huge swathe of the market, even with the amount of components that they do not themselves make any more they were pretty much free to dictate prices and terms when there was no competition. Which lead to a decade of near-stagnation and then promptly manufacturing shortages which have only caused problems for everyone. Plus the near-total dominance x86 achieved for a while before ARM started getting back in via mobile devices. Yet on the plus side, it did a lot to make computers ubiquitous and cross-compatible. So it had some benefits.
Aside from charging maybe two or three times the appropriate price on everything for years and nobody had a choice about it. Which is with processor pricing, not car.
But imagine how much worse that could have gone if AMD had lost legal defence and been barred from manufacturing x86-compatible processors. We'd be in a very different situation.
Edited by RainehDaze on Jan 24th 2020 at 3:49:58 PM
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Lost in Space
Well, it's a good thing Tesla open-sources its patents and offers to share technology with other companies trying to get into the EV market space. I can't speak to the bean counters, but Elon Musk himself has no interest in monopolizing the market. He wants to lead people to water, not become its sole distributor.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
In an interesting and weird bit of fallout from the various investigations against U.S. President Donald Trump, a recording was made public recently of a dinner meeting with Trump and a number of advisers in 2018, during which electric vehicles were discussed, and Tesla was discussed in particular.
Again, this is covered all over the place now, but I'll link Teslarati's article because it's what is easiest to hand. The article links to original sources and embeds the video. Here's another source (CNN) and a video link.
Weirdly, while almost everyone there is negative on Tesla, citing many common elements of FUD at the time, Trump isn't, expressing admiration for Elon Musk. I'm forced to acknowledge the stopped clock nature of our President: his love for billionaires and people creating industry in the U.S. occasionally causes him to latch on to good businesses.
Also from Teslarati, Elon Musk and the prototype Cybertruck were spotted filming an appearance on Jay Leno's Garage. Leno is a noted Tesla enthusiast so this hardly comes as a surprise.
Continuing coverage of the development on Giga Berlin (Tesla has officially renamed its Gigafactories by location rather than by number)...
- Road closures have been made around the forest for the detonation of old WWII ordinance, mainly air-dropped bombs. This was suspected, and apparently nearly 200 pounds of such ordinance has been found.
- Planned protests against the site have been dropped after Tesla set up an engagement center and discussed its environmental plans in more detail. Work is proceeding rapidly on clearing and wildlife relocation, which has to be done by mid-March. Notably:
- Tesla is not clearing the entire forest.
- The forest is not original growth, but was planted to farm cardboard.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 26th 2020 at 10:29:41 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
I applaud them on picking an actually useful naming scheme.
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Lost in Space
In a company-sponsored test drive, Tom Moloughney got to experience a road trip in a Porsche Taycan Turbo S, which has an EPA range rating of 192 miles, and found it to perform quite a bit better than that even under relatively poor conditions. On some legs of the trip, he projected up to 260 miles with a minimum of 227, well above the EPA's estimate. (Porsche reps are saying that 230 is a realistic max range under normal conditions.) He also got it up to 167 mph (on a different trip), beating the advertised top speed of 162.
The Taycan is apparently shaping up to be one fine electric vehicle, which it had better be for the price. It's still nowhere near the Tesla Model S's range despite an equivalently sized battery pack, but it's not as shockingly low as we've been led to believe.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 27th 2020 at 11:42:10 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
Tesla's Q4 2019 earnings report and call are expected at 3:30 PM PST today (Jan 29). This is 6:30 PM EST or 21:30 UTC. I'll update this post with relevant information as needed.
Update: The earnings report has been released. Tesla IR site, Teslarati article.
| 2019 | Revenue | Cash Flow | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS (Non-GAAP) |
| Q4 | $7.4B | $1.0B | $359M | $105M | $0.58 | $2.14 |
| Q3 | $6.3B | $371M | $261M | $143M | $0.80 | $1.91 |
| Q2 | $6.4B | $614M | ($167M) | ($408M) | ($2.31) | ($1.12) |
| Q1 | $4.5B | ($920M) | ($494M) | ($702M) | ($4.10) | ($2.90) |
Other highlights:
- Model Y ramp has started (Jan 2020), way ahead of schedule
- Model Y AWD EPA range up to 315 mi, from 280
- Solar growth 26% QoQ to 54 MW, record storage deployment of 530 MWh
- Model 3/Y production capacity in Fremont to reach 500,000/year in 2020
These are fantastic numbers.
$TSLA over $600/share in after-hours trading.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 30th 2020 at 7:59:50 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
Based on metadata around reservations, it is estimated that Ford has received approximately 32,000 preorders for the Mach E electric crossover SUV. This constitutes about two thirds of the planned first year production of 50,000. Deliveries are expected to start in 2021.
I hope the Mach E is successful. It looks like Ford has actually put in some effort into developing a compelling product, and the market should reward that.
I hadn't heard of this, but I don't live in the UK so it's not too surprising. This is a battery-electric version of Mercedes' existing Vito van with a "92-mile average range". Okay, I'm totally cool with more EV offerings, but 90 miles for a van? That seems kind of weak.
This is a bit rich, literally and figuratively. From the king of conspicuous consumption in the auto industry, this offering has some beastly specs. A reveal is expected May 2020 with sales starting Fall 2021. No word yet on range or pricing.
The electric pickup market is seeing some serious entrants of late. It's an exciting time regardless of whether you think they'll all succeed.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 30th 2020 at 10:38:22 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Figure of Hourai
I thought Hummer was defunct?
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Lost in Space
GM apparently owns the brand, so they can resurrect it if they want to.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
In the investor call yesterday, Tesla said that its primary production constraint moving forward is battery supply. It can build vehicle production lines all day, but if it doesn't have the batteries to install in them, it's meaningless. Therefore, its primary near-term focus will be expanding that supply. The agreement with LG Chem and CATL will allow the Made-in-China vehicles to have their own local supply so they aren't reliant on Giga Nevada's output.
During the call, Elon said that Q1 2020 priorities will keep Tesla from having the Battery Investor Day event until at least April, but hinted at some amazing new information that would be shared then. This isn't new; he's been dropping hints for months. It is widely expected that Cybertruck will make use of whatever new tech they're working on.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 30th 2020 at 12:02:23 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
Sooo I finally ordered my e Scooter, squeaking past the deadline for the pre-order savings. 3 more months-ish
Here's a neat video from the manufacturer on the dashboard system it'll have
Edited by 3of4 on Jan 30th 2020 at 8:19:41 PM
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Lost in Space
I'm going to watch that later. It sounds really neat.
By the way, sports fans are going to be treated to two very different electric vehicle marketing exercises during the Super Bowl (courtesy of this Third Row Podcast tweet).
Volkswagen is going to run ads for the Porsche Taycan and Audi e-Tron during the game. GM also plans to run an ad for the upcoming electric Hummer, as I mentioned above. Meanwhile, Tesla's Model Y and Cybertruck will be featured on a post-game episode of Leno's Garage. While it is likely some sponsorship money changed hands for the latter, it wouldn't come anywhere near what VW and GM paid for their ad spots.
It will be interesting to see which company sees more benefit from these promotions. I have an opinion, of course, but in this case I am absolutely biased. VW in particular needs the ads to pay off, as it doesn't seem to be selling very many Taycans in the U.S. yet [1]. Of course, it's hard to tell, as exact figures are held very close to the chest.
Once again, I'm not throwing shade on the Taycan. It can stand on its own merits without my help, which it had better do given the price tag. I'd be afraid to drive it lest I scrape a fender and have to pay $20,000 for repairs.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 30th 2020 at 3:21:09 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Electric vehicles in general seem to be ridiculously expensive to service.
They should have sent a poet.
Figure of Hourai
The disadvantage of tight integration and few mechanical components as well as a lack of expertise in the area. Not that it should be impossible, there's enough repair shops for Apple products despite similar issues and their protestations to the contrary.
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Lost in Space
They shouldn't be. The motors are cheaper than gas motors, the drivetrain is absurdly simple, and the rest of the car (body, wheels, interior) is no more inherently complex or expensive than any other vehicle. If the battery pack is damaged, sure, that's a big bill, but otherwise it shouldn't be that big of a deal.
Tesla has had service woes since the beginning largely as a consequence of scaling up so quickly that it fell behind, but it's making rapid progress. It doesn't help that the major autos have had decades to build up their service offerings and achieve economies of scale.
EVs in general should require far less maintenance than gas cars: no oil changes, no belts, no spark plugs, no transmission... all of the engine-related stuff just vanishes. The motors shouldn't need maintenance over their lifetimes. You'd even need fewer brake repairs since regenerative braking significantly reduces wear. The big bills come if you get into a crash, and have you seen a body shop invoice for any car of late? It's insane.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
I suppose the difference between an electric car and a regular car is that there’s currently less service infrastructure for electric, and when you combine that with the fact that what appears to be minor body damage can actually mean significant internal damage you’ve got a recipe for costs. I’m sure we’ve all heard the horror stories of drivers coming away with $40,000 bills after minor fender benders.
They should have sent a poet.
Lost in Space
Frankly, the rumored unibody design for the Tesla Model Y concerns me in this regard. If there's body damage, you can't easily replace the broken panel. Do you total the car because you dented a fender? I'm sure the company has thought of that, but it makes me nervous.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 30th 2020 at 6:39:17 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
That does seem like it could be an issue. I know one of the problems existing Tesla models face is that a lot of shops don’t have the necessary equipment to perform certain types of repairs, I imagine that design would only compound the problem.
They should have sent a poet.
Figure of Hourai
I didn't say the costs were anything due to complexity; I said integrated and few mechanical components—if something has a simple design but any damage means replacing the entire thing, then you're going to get costs (and may not have the tools in most places due to lack of overlap).
If something is wrong in an ICE engine, you can generally replace exactly what the malfunctioning component is. If something is wrong with an electrical motor, you're probably not going to be able to fix it and will need to replace the whole thing. Taking a guess that these motors are more expensive than spark plugs or oil filters.
Edited by RainehDaze on Jan 30th 2020 at 11:58:46 AM
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Companies who want to move into the EV marketplace in a big way can't just assume that batteries will be available at the scale they require. That's why Tesla invested in the Gigafactory. There's even talk of Tesla licensing its skateboard note technology and/or selling skateboards to other manufacturers who would then build their own vehicles around them.
Can't beat 'em? Join 'em.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 24th 2020 at 6:46:05 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"