WMG / Pathfinder Interesting Times

Some of the more interesting mysteries the party is working on right now...

Xert is being forced to work for the Cheliaxian Empire and is not in fact any sort of "pre-Ambassador" as he claims

Going back to Season 2: we know from the demon hunter Galden that Xert is subject to a very specific, written agreement which at the very least states he must remain at his post for the foreseeable future. We also learn that Xert isn't his real name and that he has committed some sort of act for which he is being punished. Fast forward to Season 4, where we learn about Asmodean contracts. We also learn that the word "Xert" means unlucky.

Xert's actions do not align with the position he claims he holds in the Cheliaxian hierarchy. While the great fire of Elenport did benefit Cheliax, the aftermath of it is highly suspicious. Instead of meeting with the Ambassador or pinpointing the culprits (Abigail and the ratfolk alchemists) to be executed, he retreats with all of them into the Poison Well. Furthermore, the Cheliaxian Grand Inquisitor has no knowledge of anyone going by the moniker Xert or anyone in Ilyrium who was assigned the task of preparing for the Ambassador's arrival.Last but not least he has a very suspicious, demon-infused carpet which he refuses to part with...

It seems like Xert overextended his reach and is trying to play both sides, simultaneously fulfilling his end of the bargain and hiding from the Cheliaxian Empire.

It could very well be a perfectly executed ruse, but there's still some details that don't add up.

Alvis/The Man in a Hat is working with the Cheliaxian Inquisition Forces and could even be the mastermind behind the fire

The first time we met The Man in a Hat (Alvis) he used the party to exchanged multiple letters with Xert. During the final confrontation, we learned that the two of them know each other very well.

Right after Elenport burned down, Alvis turned up right in the middle of the city, sporting a decked out, magic-infused armor. Conveniently, the main supply ship of the Cheliaxian Inquisition Force docked in Elenport just a few days before. The armour could have been a generous payment for a job well done.

Furthermore, he was adamant about not helping the city despite it literally being torn apart by infighting. Instead, he insisted on the group going after Xert, who didn’t pose any sort of immediate threat.

It could very well be that Alvis manipulated Xert into starting the fire, possibly with a promise of either some sort of monetary gain or of fulfilling Xert’s deed to Cheliax. Once that was done, the last item on the agenda was disposing of Xert, covering up any and all tracks leading back to Alvis.