Box Office Thread

Yeah, those comments don't surprise me. Smh.

Anyway, I knew was a terrible year for Hollywood. Between the lack of huge hits other than Disney and Marvel movies (as well as a few sleeper hits), the harsh political and racial climate, and the scandals surrounding producers and such...this was going to be a pretty bad turnout.

I don't think that this is really the issue here. Going to the theatre just becomes less and less desirable, especially for the smaller movies. What for when I can see them eventually on Netflix? The only big money makers are the kind of movies where the studios can convince the audience that they are a must-see before anyone spoils them, or that they need the big screen for the full experience. Add to this the steadily rising ticked prices in an economy where more and more people just scrap by on a low-paid job, and you get reclining audience numbers.

The article is right though that quality and originality still gets rewarded. Not always, but with the audience having be more careful what to spend their money on, the well-reviewed movies tend to be the winners. I doubt that the impact of RT is 50% though...maybe on the domestic market, but certainly not internationally.

edited 27th Dec '17 7:47:32 AM by Swanpride

Speaking of ticket prices. I happen to live near a Regency theater. Its ticket price is two third of AMC's. I watched TLJ thrice!

It is becoming harder to justify going to the theatre for just any old showing. Unless it’s something you must see or it’s something you see with others like family or friends, it’s becoming increasingly cost prohibitive. I don’t care how nice the reclining sofa chairs are.

If it didn't have the words "Guardians of the Galaxy" in the title this year, I was pretty much not going to bother seeing it in the cinema. I even missed the John Wick and Kingsmen sequels. Though I did go and see Despicable Me 3 and wasn't disappointed.

Seeing how we are at the end of 2017, it's time we look at my predictions for top 10 highest grossing movies worldwide that I made at @914.

The ones that didn't make the list were Logan, Transfomers, and Justice League. Logan did very well, but I forgot March was a busy year. Transformers apparently didn't do so well after 10 years and 5 movies. I guess people finally got sick and tired of them. Justice League... was pretty disappointing. Not even passing Man of Steel's box office as of this post.

The ones that did make the list were Wonder Woman, Ragnarok, and Wolf Warrior 2. Wonder Woman I embarrassingly underestimated seeing how she a comic book icon. Ragnarok surprised me for how it is a follow up to no one's favorite MCU movie yet it is one of the best and the box office smash. Wolf Warrior 2... straight outta nowhere. Did anyone expected this except China? Probably not.

The Chinese market is rigged in this regard.

I am quite proud because if I remember correctly I predicted that Bat B would be a contender for the number one spot.

What’s your guess for 2018’s top film? Infinity War?

In no particular order I am guessing the top 10 will include Infinity War, Black Panther, Ready Player One, A Wrinkle in Time, Deadpool 2, Solo, Jurassic World 2, and possibly Ocean’s 8. It’s going to be an insanely crowded year so I’m expecting a lot of under performers.

I have a weird feeling that RPO and/or Wrinkle will disappoint, but we’ll see.

I'm not sure about A Wrinkle in Time. While it is a book that middle schools require to read (I too had to read it), it reminds me too much of Disney's failed projects like Tomorrowland.

EDIT: As for my list it is as follows in no particular order:

1. Infinity War

2. Mission Impossible 6

3. Incredibles 2

4. Solo

5. Jurassic World 2

6. Black Panther

7. Deadpool 2

8. Dark Phoenix

9. Fantastic Beasts 2

10. Aquaman

edited 31st Dec '17 11:28:17 AM by 123tbones

I’m rooting for Wrinkle. It looks exciting and fun; I love Ava Duvernay; and it’s a big shiny sci-fi/fantasy movie where multiple heroes happen to be black.

The Greatest Showman just set the record for the greatest ever weekend-weekend hold in a film released in over 3,000 theaters, with an insane 73% increase from week 1 to week 2.

The Last Jedi went over $1 billion today and beat Beauty and the Beast as the year's highest-grossing film.

Stats are on boxofficemojo. I'd link them directly, but there isn't a super reader-friendly display for it that I know of.

edited 31st Dec '17 4:19:03 PM by Karxrida

It's pretty funny that the Barnum and Bailey circus went out of business this year but a movie about it is setting box office records.

edited 31st Dec '17 5:56:33 PM by Tuckerscreator

So, here is my list of my sure billion dollar candidates (provided that Wo M is good):

Infinity War (for sure...that one might beat the first Avengers) and Incredibles 2 (come on, the sequel for a beloved movie, and one the fans actually WANTED a sequel for? Yeah, surefire bet).

Other movies which will gross highly are the Black Panther and Deadpool 2 (though, remember, Deadpool 2 is r-rated, so it is unlikely to crack the billion...the Black Panther actually might, because it is the first out of the gate) and Fantastic Beast.

And here my out of the left field box office success: Mamma Mia 2! That is a pitch perfect situation.

I am not so sure about Mission impossible...I am not sure how much juice is left in the franchise.

edited 31st Dec '17 7:17:17 PM by Swanpride

I’d throw JW2 in there (although it won’t come close to the first).

That's largely because, while Christmas Day and the days following it are very good for movie theaters, Christmas Eve sees ticket sales go way down, so its opening weekend was a fair bit lower than what it otherwise would have been.

As for The Last Jedi, it's beaten Beauty & the Beast in the domestic market, but on the worldwide market B&B is still ahead of it by over $200 million (as is Fate of the Furious). Not an insurmountable gap, especially considering TLJ hasn't opened in China yet, but not a slam dunk, either.

edited 31st Dec '17 9:52:23 PM by RavenWilder

That's a big factor, but it wouldn't have sold 73% of its tickets on a Sunday anyway. Another factor seems to be that it has poor reviews but very good word of mouth. A figure like that requires interest to pick up quickly after a bad opening weekend.

Latest figures for Justice League are in, and they look horrific, frankly.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dcfilm1117.htm

225 million domestic total cumulative figure, fifteenth in the current chart, 56.8% drop on last week's already abysmal numbers. And it's still the fifth placed DCEU movie, out of, what, five?

Given the film has a budget (according to Wikipedia anyway) of 300 million dollars, it's looking more and more like throwing Zack Snyder under the bus isn't going to help much in terms of what DC and Warner Bros do next.

This is pretty much why I don't think Aquaman will work out either. How can it when people didn't even watch him in Justice League?

And why I think that they need to reboot, properly.

I think you're severely underestimating the power of word of mouth. People didn't have big expectations for Thor: Ragnarok due to the earlier films either, and Deadpool, just as a superhero, is extremely obscure what it comes to the mainstream audience, yet both of those movies were huge successes.

Wonder Woman also did fine, and unlike some on this site, I'm not sold on the idea that it would have succeeded anyway just by the virtue of being the first solo female superhero movie.

People know Aquaman so the movie will definitely have an initial audience, and then, if the movie is actually good, word of mouth will speed up things from there. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it became a big hit since I have a lot of faith in James Wan as a director.

I am not saying that it isn't possible...but I have also paid attention. Wonder Woman's opening wasn't particularly high because obviously a lot of people were hesitant that it would be any good. And that was about the one thing everyone praised in Bv S as well as an iconic character who should have gotten her own movie decades ago. There are way, waaaaay less people interested in Aquaman, and for the general audience, he is a walking punch-line.

You would need a great marketing campaign in order to get more than just the die-hard nerds into the cinema, and then it has to be really good.

Deadpool, on the other hand, had one of the best promotional campaigns across any media EVER. And Thor: Ragnarok's one wasn't too shabby either, what with them having an attack of LEDD POISONING! Immigrant Song, people. Worship.

The thing about superhero movies in today's world is though that they are mainstream. People watch a lot of these movies simply because they want to watch a brainless action flick, so all the superhero movies have at least some amount of initial audience interest surrounding them. Superhero movies are not a nerd only thing anymore, they're not niche like Blade Runner 2049, where, even if the movie is praised to high heavens, no one still goes to watch it.

This is why I think word of mouth has more potential to salvage the box office momentum of superhero movies as when compared to most movie genres. I don't know about you, but I can't name a single superhero movie that failed but that I considered to be good enough to deserve more.

For example, a lot of people on this site seemed to hold the opinion that Justice League was actually a decent movie and that people just didn't give it the chance that it deserved due to BvS... but based on my own experience and the reaction I got from my social media feed, that movie got exactly what it deserved.

In fact, if you ask me, many superhero movies have succeeded despite only being mediocre. The problem with the DC movies is just that most of them haven't even been mediocre but straight out bad.

EDIT: I know this is just anecdotal evidence, but I didn't have any interest in either of those movies (I was slightly curious about Deadpool but I definitely didn't give a flying crap about Thor: Ragnarok), yet I went and saw both of those movies in the theaters... despite seeing no trailers for either of them. Why did I watch them then? Because I heard people gushing about them on social media.

edited 1st Jan '18 9:42:10 AM by Paradisesnake