What If China had won the Opium Wars?

Some of you might have read about my idea of Wuxia-style martial arts appearing during the Opium Wars, in the nineteenth century.

Following that idea, if the martial artists' strength proved enough to break the British military in China, what condition do you think they would have taken from the British? And what other consequences do you think there'd be on an international politics arena? The main one I can think about is that, since the supernatural has been proven to exist beyond any doubt, most countries start investigating in their own esoteric traditions, to see whether there's any truth to it or if it's all a fraud.

The one theory of China wining the opium wars involves keeping up to date on Europeans weapons and manufacturing tech. That means not adopting an isolationist policy. With the population and shear size of China any invasion would be suicidal.

I believe that would cause the British Empire to back down, find a way to get a hold of the magic martial arts for themselves (for some reason I imagine their equivalent of "magic wuxia" would be something akin to "Magic Bartistu", forment economic and sociological instability in China until it breaks apart, preferably in a large-scale civil war or uprising, and then side with one of the factions and take over the ravaged China.

The British Empire's hat was pretty much being The Chessmaster, so there's that.

They'd get better trade deals, for one. Or hey, perhaps even with the US. "Hey, we noticed that you Yanks kicked some British ass too - you guys wanna trade tech engineering for silk and tea that you can sell back to the Brits with a markup?"

More Chinese bodyguards worldwide, for another.

The Treaty of Namking would get written out, and... hm. Would India start thinking about independence earlier as a result? Martial arts and physical conditioning are hardly unique to China, just better exposed.

For one, there would be no British Hong Kong.

If they win for any reason other than a total overhaul of the Qing Dynasty, than not much changes. The British back off for a bit, but other imperial powers continue to circle, Russia continues its expansion into Siberia, Manchuria, and Korea, Japan continues to prowl about the edges, and in the end China still collapses in on itself.

The Opium Wars were a symptom of Qing China's decay, not the cause, and all while they put Chinese weakness on display for the world, they were not the reason for that weakness.

Also, reading the OP, I think you are conflating the Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion which were two separate events, decades apart. The former might possibly have been winnable for the Chinese, if they had gotten their act together. The latter was never going anywhere but bad.

edited 5th Oct '14 5:31:23 PM by AmbarSonofDeshar

I think that ending would require extreme secrecy on the part of the Holyfist(s). You don't defeat a British army/garrison and not make waves in the process; with that sort of might on their side, the dynasty stops having any need to change for external reasons. Internally... that would depend on the further actions of the Holyfist(s), and whether they feel a need to right wrongs in their own country or not. (As for the Boxer Rebellion - which is really bloody difficult to conflate with the Opium Wars from a Western writer's perspective - I suspect the Holyfist Order would take the place of the 'spirit soldiers'; there'd be space to justify a significant morale drop in the Eight-Nation Alliance, at the very least.)

I think, Gamabunta, how the nation and ruling dynasty fares would depend largely on whether you feel up to writing a minor-change or major-change Alternate History. A significant enough victory in the Opium Wars would either erase the Boxer Rebellion entirely or replace it with an early Cold War, as surely military personnel under the Qing Dynasty would at least attempt to study the means by which they won.

I see now that I'd misread the OP. When you started talking about martial artists defeating the British my mind went to the Boxers, and I couldn't figure out what the hell you had them doing in the Opium Wars. So what you're wanting to do here is introduce film style, wire-guided martial arts to a real world setting?

Well, predicting how things are going to change gets a lot harder once you start dragging fantasy elements into it. A few questions: where did your martial artists come from? Are they part of the government and the regular military, or are they a non-government movement that has issues with the Manchus? If they're Han Chinese, and they are supporting the Manchus, why are they doing that?

Finally, this thread needs a better title. As it is it sounds like we're talking about what would happen if the real Qing China had won the Opium Wars. What we're talking about here is the impact that introducing these sorts of martial arts would have on the world, which is a whole different topic.

If the rulership could have survived until Cixi was gone, it's possible the reformist/modernizing clique could have gained control and bolstered the country.

I'm not sure what OP's stylistic commitment to wuxia and Chinese culture is, but China would likely have continued to be technologically backwards, industrially weak, and militarily vulnerable unless it modernized. While this doesn't necessarily mean Westernizing, it does mean that things like ripping up the UK-built railroads would probably come to an end and industrialized infrastructure would have to take prime priority.

If the martial artists themselves became a socially potent force (entirely possible, if they publicly claimed credit for "saving the nation") then be prepared for their voice to have a major influence on the Qing dynasty's subsequent dealings with the populace. If the martial artists follow a more traditionalist, "what came before is best for the future" outlook, then reform could continue to be very difficult, with eventual Qing collapse.

OP could look to Restoration-era Japan for a nation that forced itself to go through modernization (including domestic resistance to the idea, as glamorized in The Last Samurai). The example of Thailand (Siam) also provides some fodder for an East Asian nation that successfully played off colonial interests against each other and secured its relative independence that way.

Either way, the primary stumbling block for Western-Qing relations was trade. Far moreso than sovereignty or colonial holdings or military flag-waving, it was the mercantile interests that made it worthwhile for the West to pry open the Chinese gates. So if you're envisioning a relatively feasible scenario where the Qing dynasty prevailed in the Opium Wars, you'd need: a) trade relations between Qing court and foreign powers, which then requires b) the Qing court abandoning its refusal to acknowledge foreign powers as equals and its willingness to recognize the legitimacy of foreign rulers, c) military modernization, to secure the domestic situation as well as to deter foreign adventurism, and d) social reforms such that foreign powers would not need to demand Extraterritoriality to protect their citizens against harsh Qing-dynasty corporeal and capital punishments.

edited 12th Oct '14 7:49:28 AM by enixine

Ambar Son Of Deshar: Yes, I want to make flying, wire-guided kung-fu fighters to the mix of the Opium Wars.

The martial artists at the beginning of the story were just normal people. When the british occupy the island of Zhoushan, they are displaced and desperate. An old wondering monk takes pity on them and gives them scrolls for advanced martial arts, so they have a chance to fight the foreigners. They wouldn't be part of the government, but wouldn't have any bone to pick with the Manchus either. I'd say it's better the devil you know than the one yet to meet.

Regarding the topic's title, it is actually about what would happen if China had won the Opium War through the employ of Wuxia-level martial artists.

Enixine: I hadn't thought of Japan, thanks! I'll definitely look into it. Yes, the Qing would need to modernize their military, because people with the potential to become a powerful martial artist are really scarce, and they can't be everywhere at once. Modernizing their trade rules would also be a priority, though I guess that if they win they'll get terms that are much more beneficial for them.

Are we talking about fiction or reality?

In reality, Qing dynasty was already in terminal decline before the opium war. No amount of military victory will save it. As for what will happen to China next? Well, major event would still be the same and China will stay end up a communist/socialist nation. The reason is that China explored A LOT of governing models during the century between 1850 and 1949. Communism is the simply the best one. It is a model that is culturally familiar to China and allows the fastest catching up in industrialization (Well, it is actually the ONLY model that allows rapid industrialization).

Basically, the only way for the history to change significantly will be for China to go communist early. Then China may industrialize fast enough in time for the world wars.