Protest in Hong Kong

Some people (older ones) say that Occupy Central is a bad thing for the younger generations.

I notice that that sentence gives us absolutely no supporting arguments for that assertion. I suspect that the actual "arguments" won't be a jot better.

The papers mentioned that the older generation can't comprehend the protests in terms of why the heck are they going out of their way to do it.

PS - They were seen with PRC flags, but I don't know if it's in counter-protests.

Key thing to remember: the pro-PRC people/political parties have known to utilize the elderly who haven't got a clue what is going on for their purposes (I've seen a clip where an elderly in a counter-protest to the anti-nationalistic education demonstration answering non-sequiturs when asked why he was there). Also, from what I heard from parents and uncles they also hold "election banquets" where they hold large luxurious banquets in nursing homes, then drive them to voting booths (HK doesn't have compulsory voting). Guess who they will vote for?

Some of the local papers in Macau reports that pro-democratic groups in the SAR are pushing for e-votes.

This is most likely influenced by the recent protests in Hong Kong.

edited 21st Aug '14 12:02:39 AM by Ominae

Saw a lot of posters trying to promote the right to suffrage in 2017.

Funny article I found with the OCM group is how can they solve their toilet problems.

China rules out open elections in Hong Kong.

Bloody PRC.

They're not going to let them choose their own government, are they?

Well given they conquered several other independent countries during their rise to power, I'm not shocked.

Considering how stubborn authoritarian governments tend to be when it comes to popular opinion, the results of the protests was always a Foregone Conclusion for me. The only question of value now is how far this game of chicken between Hong Kong and Beijing is going to last, with neither side intending on backing down any time soon. A part of me predicts that sooner or later, Beijing is going to play the military card and see whether the Hong Kongnese are courageous/sane enough to risk a Tiananmen Mk. II.

Given the trouble in western china, and general unrest that seems to be creeping up, cracking down too hard could cause open revolt, or at least increased insurgency in some areas.

After all, China's not like Russia or Turkey where they have one or two areas that have issues with the government. China has numerous groups that are unhappy with the status quo, and not just oppressed minorities.

China is also considerably less willing to negotiate than Russia and Turkey; Turkey, despite some worrying authoritarianism, is still pretty democratic and was willing to negotiate a solution with the Kurds to bring peace. The Kremlin, whilst hardly democratic, is still pragmatic enough to essentially let the Chechen clans/crime families run Chechnya whilst giving up their aspirations for independence. A bit like the British Raj, really - "pay your tithes, send us soldiers, and keep shtum or we'll send in the heavy team".

China can't do any of this; the CPC has shown no desire to relinguish its political control of China and is terrified that negotiating with regional interests like HK, the Tibetans, and the Xinjiang Muslims will create a precedent that will embolden more dangerous reformers (and they're probably right in that). Also, there's a fairly strong cultural aversion among the Chinese elite to national disunity, a product of China's humiliation in the 19th century, the warlordism and the civil wars that followed, and the Japanese invasion - regional autonomy will be seen as the first step on a slippery slope to a Balkanized China.

edited 31st Aug '14 8:49:04 AM by Achaemenid

There's not going to be any riots or revolts in HK. The majority of HK people are rich by global standards and have decent standards of living. They're not desperate or hungry enough to initiate the kinds of street riots you see in Egypt or the ME.

There'll be marching and protests on the weekends and holidays and then the people will go back to their office jobs on monday.

edited 31st Aug '14 9:15:02 AM by nightwyrm_zero

I meant that part more for the western areas of China. There's been some fighting in Xin lately.

Yes but those fighting are a small minority within a small minority. Even if the Uighur separatists conducted traditional guerrilla warfare they would soon be crushed.

Not that Uighurs don't broadly wish for separatism or autonomy, but most of them simply aren't willing to fight for it, and even if they were, the PRC could probably handle that.

The Uighur separatists have also chosen to employ methods and align themselves with allies that all but guarantee that they will get no international support.

They'd be guaranteed no real international support apart from pretty words of sympathy anyways - the U.S would have to be Too Dumb to Live to conduct rebel-based CIA operations in Xinjiang a la Afghanistan, while the Russians wouldn't want to provoke their historically ambitious rival neighbor in any way. For the factions determined to conduct armed resistance, seeking support from designated "terrorist groups" is really the only way to get things done in their opinion.

Yes, but becoming a human rights cause celebre like the ANC or the Palestinians might have had its advantages. That they've chosen, in essence, the way of the terrorist all but guarantees they will get no sympathy whatever. They can't really hope for any military assistance - China's too big and scary, and most of the nations that traditionally might have backed them are allies of China or want closer relations with it. A political path might have worked for them, but chopping up commuters in Beijing station will get them nowhere.

They might be going for something like the IRA's "colony strategy" - push your enemy to adopt ever-harsher measures which both retroactively justify your own violence and which push the undecided into your own camp - but I'm dubious that that will work in the long run.

And you're assuming that the separatists are even coordinated enough to plan out and make strategies in the first place. Their mostly unpredictable nature seems to me as a sign that they're really a coalition of loosely affiliated bands with different ideas and stances but a same overall goal of independence; not to mention lone individuals unable to join one but are willing to do something physical for the general cause.

To get this thread back to Hong Kong, the protesters have apparently vowed to fight on despite the rigid conclusion of Beijing's decision. As much as I applaud their courage, they've essentially just crossed the Rubicon with the central government. I'm putting my money on a Prague Spring-esque resolution to this, with Beijing tolerating the Occupy Central movement just as the Soviets did with the Czech Reformists for a time period before crushing it under brute military force. Although such an action would possibly provoke negative reactions across the country, the PLA certainly has the capabilities to cover vast territories and populations at the same time while state media smothers any mention of Hong Kong during the intervention.

That would mean that it will be Tiananmen Square again, except this time it's in a place where there will even more international attention (given that Hong Kong was a British colony and all, can't imagine UK being too happy about it).

Though if I remember right, there are documents that leaked out that suggest that there was a power struggle during the Tiananmen Square protests back in '89, just that the pro-reform team lost. I do wonder if that will happen again and maybe (it's way optimistic I know) this time the pro-reform team can win.

Hell tiananmen nearly sparked an outright civil war. Local units were sympathetic to the point the military forces used to crush it were brought in from other parts of the country. Imagine if they'd just sent in the Beijing troops?

HKPF officers conducted operations to investigate Jimmy Lai, who happens to be a critic of the CPC. He's known there for supporting OC.

China accuses British MPs of Hong Kong 'interference'

That's the song they always put up whenever someone comments on Chinese politics.

When critizing (and sometimes not even that) China, prepare yourself for the obvious response: "It's your fault for having educated him that way!"

edited 2nd Sep '14 2:24:13 PM by Quag15