The Latin America thread (VE, BR, AR, CU, MX...)

TBF, that was a very small % of them...but given how slim the margins were in some states and how the Electoral College works...

Yeah the percentage of Bernie voters that didn’t vote for Hillary is around (maybe even lower than) the percentage of Hillary voters that didn’t vote for Obama in 2008.

The percentage of those that you encounter on social media is different from the actual percentage.

and , I was just mentioning that is the same type of thinking, the whole "I will never sacrify my principles!" (then proceed to left someone that is totally against their principles in power) thing.

Peru had a love for the Doomed Moral Victor

edited 22nd Dec '17 7:24:39 AM by KazuyaProta

You can thank that to our past war with Chile and the fact that voting for the lesser evil doesn't sit well for the younger (and naïve?) generations.

Sorry to interrupt, but I have a question that's been bothering me for many months.

What is the history of socialism and communism in Latin America like, besides Cuba? I ask because I'm trying to figure out if there's real-life basis for Command & Conquer: Red Alert 2 portraying Mexico as having becme a communist state at some point between the first and second games of the series, and Mental Omega portraying a significant portion of the Latin American countries (consult this map◊ for specifics) as having banded together into a communist super-state named the Socialist Confederation of Latin America (commonly shortened to "Latin Confederation"). At least the latter seems partially inspired by past attempts at Latin American integration, which had brief manifestations in the Federal Republic of Central America, Gran Colombia, and the Peru-Bolivian Confederation.

If memory serves (and anyone feel free to correct me on this, I admit I might be ignorant on some things), Mexico did flirt with socialism after the Mexican Revolution, and it damaged ties with the US for quite a bit. Apparently during the presidency of the infamous Plutarco Calles, Mexico was accused of being communist or harboring Soviet ties, but Calles himself seemed to bounce between socialism and outright fascism (I'm assuming whatever he saw fit to keep himself in power). He had support from the Mexican Communist Party but then later turned on them and allied with the Gold Shirts, a fascist organization. His successor, Lazaro Cardenas, seemed more strictly socialist and he's fairly well beloved in Mexico. He opposed a lot of Calles's policies and granted asylum to Spanish Republicans during the Spanish Civil War and Leon Trotsky after he fled from the Soviet Union.

Again, anyone feel free to correct me on this, I could be wrong.

On the side of Peru, there was a brief point when the government of General Velasco Alvarado flirted with Communism, mostly because the USSR was the one that sold us tons of weapons and equipment -to the point we briefly became the military power of Sudamerica- alongside manuals of engineering in russian such as the Mechanics of Materials by Timoshenko and many others, even his Agrarian Reforms could be seen as Socialist in nature in the eyes of an European.

That being said, he also wiped out many of the insurgent groups that followed the ideology of Mao Tse Tung - Sendero Luminoso was amongst the few that survived - before he was deposed by General Morales Bermudez and was more Nationalistic in nature than Communist, since part of the reason for the coup was to rid ourselves of the Usonian influence and turn inwards to find our own identity.

The reason why I think that Socialism is not much of a thing here is because we already have the Catholic Church to guide us, if anything, we follow a Catholic Socialism here because we take seriously the idea of aiding the poor or doing things for communities sakes instead of the benefit of a corporation while maintaining a somewhat traditional (but not stagnant) view on morality or ethics.

As for the unification of Latin America, that's not much of a possiblity nowadays because of the Monroe Doctrine, so long as the US continues to project itself on Latin America, we won't be able to unite in any manner.

edited 22nd Dec '17 7:06:10 PM by raziel365

The reason why Socialism is not a thing here is because Sendero Luminoso, most of our earlier rejections of it were because USA influence, but then Socialism was having a slow revival...

And then Sendero Luminoso followed the proud tradition of socialist groups of destroying any support that their ideology would have. No one want to have nothing related to them, they were the American cliche of Comunist terrorist boogeyman brought to reality.

edited 22nd Dec '17 7:37:44 PM by KazuyaProta

Alberto Fujimori was indulted.

I don't know how to feel, besides wishing that he dies soon.

Objectively, he's a old man dying from age related problems.

On the other side, he's a freaking ex dictator who is the root cause of the biggest issues of our country (the fujimorists, the ones that basically spend their time screwing over anyone that try to actually govern).

I mean, his indult is perfectly inside of the legal frame, but I'd still feel akward .

Now that Peru` ex dictator was released, some people is wanting to realize our old terrorist leader Abimael Guzman, arguing with the same arguments.

Of course, the actual argument is, now that our biggest Right Wing asshole was released, why not realease our biggest Left Wing Asshole ?

edited 26th Dec '17 5:33:39 PM by KazuyaProta

I...honestly don't know if this all negative

Don't get me wrong, I would have preferred to see that old bastard rot to death in prison; however, we have to admit that this is probably the only way PPK would get to actually govern without the Fujimorist being a thorn right now.

Before the attempted vacancy, the Fujimorist was split between those that supported Keiko and those that rallied behind her younger brother, Kenji, which in turn was the side that owed their loyalties to Alberto rather than Keiko. On the day of the votation, Kenji and another nine congressmen voted against the vacancy, which enlarged the fractures inside the party, and now, having set Alberto free just after Keiko refused to recognize her 10 dissidents as members of her party, they managed to do what they claimed they wanted in the moment they wanted it the least.

That being said, I'm only willing to overlook this if PPK gets his act together, if he doesn't, I'll probably join the marchs to imprison Fujimori again.

Because releasing our Right-wing Yakuza boss is going to lead to a much wished schism inside the Fujimorist Party, releasing comrade Gonzalo is just asking for yet another period of terror in the country.

Which we will now have to be vigilant about because of the many terrorists whose sentence have been finished this year. Seriously, they should have just shot them instead of sending them to prison.

edited 27th Dec '17 6:07:01 AM by raziel365

I mean, I dont disagree with you at all. I am still feeling bad that Fujimori is out.

If my family let me go to Lima, I probably will do the same. Please, Fujimorists, you already won, now let us work on peace.

edited 27th Dec '17 10:04:49 AM by KazuyaProta

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-russia-usa/russia-meddling-in-mexican-election-white-house-aide-mcmaster-idUSKBN1EW0UD

So apparently Russia is now meddling in Mexican elections just like they did in the 2016 US election to support Andres Manuel Lopez Obdrador. I'm not really caught up in Mexican politics but what's the general opinion on him?

Found this article on him.

Mexico’s populist would-be president

It...doesn't paint a good picture. He's pretty much a typical populist with all that entails. This particular bit is troubling:

The Kremlin interfering in his favor does raise some more questions. They clearly want something out of this and think that Obrador winning will help them get it for whatever reason.

edited 8th Jan '18 8:25:02 PM by M84

Reading about him on Wikipedia, he reminds me vaguely of Trump with the whole claims of voter fraud, except in this case he lost and his followers crowned him the "legitimate" president and he's apparently left wing. Seems to be a nutcase by the looks of it, a big diva with a huge cult of followers.

this is worth a read.

Russian Influence in Mexican and Colombian Elections

Mexico

Why is the Kremlin interested in the 2018 Mexican election? One plausible argument, outlined by Vladimir Rouvinski at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, is that Russia views Mexico as Washington’s “near abroad” and wants revenge for U.S. interference in the post-Soviet space, Russia’s so-called “sphere of influence.” Indeed, RT en Espanol’s coverage has included anti-American content and sought to drive a wedge between the two neighbors. In September 2016, RT en Español began broadcasting “La Batalla por Mexico” or “The Battle for Mexico,” a weekly video blog hosted by political activist John Ackerman. Ackerman’s blog appears to serve two main purposes: to frame the United States as an existential threat to Mexico and to convince Mexican voters to support Andres Manuel López Obrador, a leftist candidate who is rising in popularity by appealing to Mexican nationalism and anti-Trump sentiment. This will be the politician’s third try at the presidency, but this time he has the added support of Russia’s state-sponsored media and its growing audience in Mexico.

Ackerman tells his viewers that López Obrador is the only candidate willing to stand up to President Trump and defend the rights of Mexicans both in Mexico and in the United States. Lopez Obrador has called Mexico’s current president Peña Nieto “a weak leader who could sell out Mexico to the U.S.” Even as far back as 2015, Ackerman was asking for political support from RT when he was interviewed on the Keiser Report. He said, “Over the next few years, if we have international support and attention by independent media, like you Max and others, Mexico will triumph, and we will be another example just like Syriza, just like Podemos, and perhaps even more, and right at the backyard of Washington.”

Just as troubling for the prospects of foreign interference is the state of election security in Mexico. The National Electoral Institute (INE) in Mexico has created an online portal that will enable citizens to vote from abroad during the 2018 election. According to an INE report prepared with Google Analytica, computers in Russia have been making the largest number of visits to the portal’s website, with 65 percent of entries coming from St. Petersburg, the location of the Internet Research Agency. This data raises concerns about fraud in the actual voting process, which could impact the results or undermine Mexicans’ faith in the election’s credibility.

Colombia

Further south, Colombia is headed for a historic election in 2018. For the first time, former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will participate in the election process, led by ex-FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño, alias “Timochenko,” who announced his presidential candidacy on November 1. Political representation for the FARC was guaranteed in a peace deal signed between the rebel group and President Juan Manuel Santos in 2016 that ended the deadly, half-century-long war. While the FARC remains an unpopular political party — nearly 9 in 10 Colombians say they will not vote for a FARC candidate for President — the Russian media is standing behind Londoño by framing him as a proponent for peace. In May 2017, RT en Español hosted Londoño in an exclusive interview titled “Now FARC’s Only Plan is Peace in Colombia.”

The FARC has had deep criminal ties to Russia that continue today. In February 2014, a joint investigation by the FBI and Colombia’s police intelligence unit discovered that corrupt Russian military officers and criminal networks were supplying sophisticated weapons to the FARC, and the National Liberation Army (ELN) in exchange for huge shipments of cocaine. Londoño has close ties to Russia of his own (he also studied at Moscow’s Patrice Lumumba University). The candidate’s war alias, “Timochenko,” alludes to the former Red Army commander and Marshal of the Soviet Union Semyonov Timoshenko, close friend of Josef Stalin. Beyond its nefarious connections to the FARC, Russia is interested in supporting Londoño, because a strong alliance between Russia and the post-FARC political party (Revolutionary Alternative Common Force) will secure a direct point of influence into political decision-making. The benefits of friendly Russian-Colombian relations were demonstrated at the 2014 BRICS Summit, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov thanked then President Santos for not backing U.S. sanctions against Russia.

Russia’s Goals

Potential Russian interference in the 2018 elections in Mexico and Colombia, America's two largest economic and security partners in the region, is part of a greater strategy to disrupt U.S.–Latin American relations by supporting authoritarian figures that are hostile to the United States and the West. At a deeper level, the Kremlin’s Spanish-language media networks are heavily promoting false news stories and inflammatory content to incite fear and hostility toward the United States and undermine public faith in democratic elections. Evidence of Russian-Venezuelan coordinated efforts to enflame the crisis in Catalonia proves that Russia has already established platforms for disinformation in Latin America that it can mobilize to infiltrate elections in Mexico and Colombia. Additionally, Russia wants stronger economic ties with Latin America, such as the cooperation agreement signed by LUKOIL and Mexican company Pemex in January 2014, that could help compensate for the effects of western sanctions on the Russian economy. What we know for sure is that the Kremlin’s efforts to influence political opinion in Latin America transcend the 2018 elections, seek to split Latin American nations from the United States, and will continue to affect the geopolitical landscape of the Western hemisphere.

http://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/blog/2018/01/04/russian-influence-mexican-and-colombian-elections

edited 9th Jan '18 8:32:55 AM by megaeliz

Read it. Pretty disgusted but not completely surprised. Putin seems to be aiming to further screw with the US by making pals with its neighbors who Trump has been pissing off with his racist rhetoric.

Anyone mind telling me what's going on in Colombia? I don't know much of anything about Colombian politics.

Right now they are going through a process of reconciliation and peace, neither the government or the FARC seem to want to continue their war and instead want to settle things once and for all, this is opposed by the past president Uribe and his followers, who seek to continue the conflict. A noteworthy point is that Pope Francis himself supported the peace process and helped out the current head of state to gain support for it.

I will admit, I'm not a fan of the USA, but I'm pretty insulted that Russia is trying to play pawns with us, though this apparently means that the sanctions to Russia are having enough of an effect to force Putin to start creating the rifts between Latin America and the USA instead of allowing Trump to run his mouth and do it for him.

On a minor note, I'm somewhat confused by the part that says that Putin wants to create hostilities between Latin America and West. Latin America is part of the West, no way we are going to turn our backs on it.

edited 11th Jan '18 8:18:23 AM by raziel365

I think that "The West" here was used in the context of first world Europe+North America and first world more generally.

This unopened thread might be a relevant place to discuss what is and isn't "the west". Especially given there's no criteria for "the west" that would exclude Latin America that shouldn't exclude the US, Canada and Australia (and South Africa, as per that thread's title) too.

I know who the West is

People often use “The West” as a shorthand for the Global North (which is also a and term as the Global North includes Australia and New Zealand).

Mexico’s CJNG: Local Consolidation, Military Expansion and Vigilante Rhetoric

This shit is still going on in 2018?

EDIT: Scratch that, Mexico's statistics are all over the place, but there's been a noticable increase in violence in the last two decades.

Regardless, cartels do have quite a few hold-outs.

edited 19th Feb '18 9:53:53 AM by TerminusEst