North Korea

North Korea might be an impotent bully, but with the capacity of launching a Nuclear weapon they'd be a bully that feels invulnerable. It would only take them minutes for it to hit Seoul. Even if you intercept it, it has to go off somewhere on Korea, which is a very densely populated part of the world.

They know fine well that their enemies don't want Nuclear weapons being used in any war regardless of how effective it may or not be, and they know we'd rather not turn Pyongyang and its population into a smoldering hole in the ground. Even if they aren't crazy enough to start a war, it gives them a lot of grounds to blackmail people with.

To be honest, if they keep pressing ahead with this then we're looking down the barrel of a preemptive war in one of the most populated and economically important areas in the world.

And let us pray that come it may (As come it will for a' that)

If a nuke gets intercepted it doesn't go off - well, not as a nuclear explosion. It essentially becomes a dirty bomb. You can actually destroy a nuclear weapon with a normal explosive, and you don't get a chain reaction that results in the sort of damage you'd normally expect of a nuclear weapon. The radioactive material that gets released into the air is still dangerous, though. Less so than a proper nuclear explosion, but you know.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

As a troper stationed in Korea let me add a few things:

• The Norks know they can't win. Their plan is to threaten a Taking You with Me strategy. They have chemical weapons aimed at the South and so much artillery that a first strike would do lots of damage. Yes the US and the ROK air force would bomb them back to the stone age, but not before a lot of people die.
• Many cities are VERY close to North Korea. Even a skirmish would put lots of innocent people in danger. The Norks don't care what they shell.

• We have assets in Guam, Japan and Hawaii that the Norks could hit if they got good enough.
• Japan can hit a NK missile, but that might push the Norks berserk button. Tokyo could get flooded with Scuds.
• Scuds, like all missiles, are area denial weapons. Wargame nerds call it "map fire": shoot at a point on the map for various reasons. The Norks are fiendish enough to attack powerplants and cities that can't move or shoot back.
• China is laughing because NK ties up the US, Japan and South Korea. Even if the North implodes that would bog it's three biggest rivals down for decades.

All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48

I've just had a look — Seoul is about 20-30 miles*

from the Korean Border. Not far at all.

edited 26th Jan '13 6:45:37 AM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On

Hmm... I'm starting to understand now about the situation and why its so worrisome.

Everything within artillery range on both sides of the border is a target, and the initial volleys will be brutal. Both sides are aware of this. When I was teaching English over there, I remember seeing these funny little signs on the outside of some underground malls, parking lots, and subway stations; they looked like cute little multicolor mountains. It wasn't until about a month before I left the country when someone told me that they signified structures strong enough to take cover in should an artillery strike occur.

Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.

The problem is that people keep forgetting how crazy the Norks are.

The older soldiers in the brigade talk about their previous DMZ tours. It was like a nation of Hannibal Lecters compared to the Cold War era Fulda gap.

The East Germans and the Soviets would trade cigs, porn and smokes with NATO troop. There were a few shootings but nothing like the "Axe Murder" incident. On the DMZ tour I took, the tension was palpable. We couldn't take pictures for fear of provoking the Norks.

edited 26th Jan '13 7:08:13 AM by TairaMai

All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48

Then again, given that the DMZ area will become an impassable slaughterhouse China may face about 25,000,000 people trying to cross the Yalu River. They won't be laughing at that prospect nor, despite traditional rhetoric, will they want the Yellow Sea turning into a giant toilet for the ensuring shitstorm.

And let us pray that come it may (As come it will for a' that)

Understandable - NK's government, I understand, wants zero communication between its citizens (barring a very trusted few) and anyone in the outside world, for fear of letting them know what they're missing. I daresay the DPRK would vastly prefer their troops get shot by the SK side than end up trading ciggies with them.

edited 26th Jan '13 11:54:16 AM by betaalpha

North Korea warning follows nuclear threat: North Korea is warning of "substantial and high-profile important state measures", whatever that means...

Keep Rolling On

It means that their Google translate is fucked. Very few North Koreans speak English, for obvious reasons. Instead, articles and press releases are written in Chinese, then sent other translators for translation to English.

Or so I hear.

edited 27th Jan '13 3:44:50 AM by Achaemenid

Schild und Schwert der Partei

This is very bad. Next they're going to threaten an unprecedented escalation, a virtuous conflict to end all others, immediate preparations for an all-out glorious strike, justified and immediate response to the naked Western aggression, readiness training for imminent ground and sea actions, and total commitment to the righteous reunification of the Korean People. And after they've run out of unusual euphamisms for "We're threatening yet again to go to war with you right now" I imagine they'll just loop back to the first ones they ever used.

edited 27th Jan '13 5:36:37 AM by betaalpha

Meanwhile, the famine is back with a vengeance. Reports from inside the Hermit Kingdom suggest that North Korea's food policy is taking a more "humanitarian" direction.

Jesus H. Christ.

Schild und Schwert der Partei

Daddy used to love watching the fundie channels for entertainment. He was conservative, but he HATED fundies.

One day we were watching some missionaries talk about North Korea.

This was in the mid-90s.

Many villages had resorted to cannibalism. Many had nothing to cook with because they had burned all the wood to keep warm.

There was a trio of girls who looked all of 9-10 years old. The man had tears in his eyes when he told the audience that they were 16 and standing on a bed to they could be eye to eye with the cameraman.

Daddy needed a beer, I almost got one myself...

All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48

I think North Korea is a very strange anomaly in humanity. A type of cancer that nobody messes with because it can explode at any moment.

"You cannot judge a system if your judgement is determined by the system."

@ Achaemenid: Don't expect it to get any better. If North Korea does do their Third Nuclear Test, China might cut their aid.

Keep Rolling On

Guys....the zombie apocalypse is real and it is in North Korea. Especially if the Chinese follow through on the threat.

Makes me wonder if there really would be a mass exodus in case NK collapsed or if they're too weak to do so at this point.

Also wondering if they may now be affected by Kuru disease....

If the Norks imploded...yuck...

We have a brigade here, but 8th Army would have to rush lots of supplies. Leaderless sleeper cells, Nork Army units trying to usurp power, soldiers looting both sides of the border...not to mention the zillions of mines on both sides of the DMZ...

The only reason China props up NK is the long game. If the Norks imploded, it would take South Korean and the Penn off the chessboard, but then the US could focus on China. We'd have to help the South rebuild the North, but sooner or latter we'd leave and that would free up the Pacific Command (Army, AF, Marines and Navy units) for China and the rest of Asia.

The best the world could hope for is that the Norks listen to reason and stand down.

The best China could hope for is a bloody insurgency and then to "Finland-ize" a United Korea.

All this could have been avoided but no, Clinton and Albright believed that North Korea would have undergone a revolution like the Hole In Flag ones in Easter Europe. Kim Jong-Il saw that as a sign of weakness and went full Bond Villain.*

What's the worst that could happen? Somalia in Asia.

edited 28th Jan '13 3:16:06 PM by TairaMai

All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48

Flat "What"?

...

Yeah, I think this is a good time as any to drop the watch on this.

...*Ouch!*...

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

On the subject of Rockets: South Korea launches space rocket carrying satellite

Keep Rolling On

I love the not-so-subtle note to the North. "See: satellite number three... in orbit and holding. Wankers: you can't even manage one that isn't even functionally different from a metronome without burning up."

edited 30th Jan '13 4:03:13 AM by Euodiachloris

It's funny, the Junche "putting korean things first" madness mantra of the Norks. LG, Samsung, Hundai, Kia, et al. of South Korea and all the North can export is crazy.

edited 30th Jan '13 5:45:24 AM by TairaMai

All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48

And hungry people.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

No, they use landmines to keep the hungry people inside.

All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48