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Some apparent random strengths and weaknesses of civilizations and units match well with History. This game is an amazing example of Shown Their Work.

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Fridge Brilliance

General

Building Castles is a massive returning investment in the Castle Age (roughly 11th-14th century), when they are almost invulnerable. By the late game, they become easy prey of Trebuchets and Cannons (after researching Chemistry), mirroring their decline in the late 15th century after the popularization of gunpowder.
Prior to The African Kingdoms camel riders used ship armor, and they were far more vulnerable to towers and castles than horsemen as a result. Was this supposed to account for camels' historically limited role in warfare, used mostly to transport supplies and harassing travelling enemy troops out in the desert, far from urban centers? A pun on camels being sometimes called "the ships of the desert"? Both?
- Apparently, it was planned once that camels would have the ability to capture enemy villagers, but this was scrapped during development. The vulnerability to building arrows may be a harbinger from that, as a way to limit camels raiding to areas far from towns and fortifications.
Ever wondered how is it possible that if you kill an animal with a villager you can harvest it for food while killing it with a military unit will automatically turn it into a shallow carcass? It may be because any military unit may want to pick the head of the killed animal in order to display it as a trophy... or it may be because the villagers are skilled hunters, so they know how to kill an animal without damaging it for food recovery, whereas a military unit would just hack it in order to make it inedible.
- A soldier on campaign may also keep the meat for himself and not be compelled to hand it over to his lord, like a peasant would.
- Soldiers may also be doing it For the Lulz and intentionally leaving the meat to rot, rather than hassle themselves bringing it back.
Running out of gold will push players to rely on massed spearmen, skirmishers, light cavalry i.e. the same units that would be made of local volunteers and levees in real life. And because this usually happens late in the game after reaching the Imperial Age equivalent to the Renaissance era, it can be seen as an allegory of Medieval feudal armies being replaced by state-conscripted and trained Modern Age armies.

Italians

The Italians counter the Turks strongly, due to their reliance on light cavalry and gunpowder units like bombard cannons and janissaries. Their Genoese Crossbowmen counter the Turks' beefy Horse Archers and melee cavalry, which is helped by the Turks not having access to Elite Skirmisher or Onager upgrades. Their other UU, the Condottiero, is a shared special infantry with bonus attack against gunpowder units. True to history, Italian mercenaries played an important role in slowing the expansion of the Ottoman empire in Europe and were formidable foes to the Ottoman army, as evidenced in Lepanto.
They are also good against the Franks but get outmatched in their archery skills by the Britons.
The lack of Heresy (a Monastery technology that kills your units instantly instead of being converted by enemy monks) in the Italians may seem far-fetched since Italy is well-known as the home of the Roman Catholic church that, in the Medieval period, had strong political influence throughout Italy and most of Europe. However, Italy is also the home of The Renaissance, in which scholars challenged the authority of the Catholic Church.
- In addition, Italian armies were made mostly of mercenaries (Condottieri) in real life, and those can't be expected to be so loyal as to choose death after being captured rather than changing paychecks.

Mongols

They are very strong during the Castle Age because of their strong early economy bonus and excellent raiding units. However, their technology tree is somewhat lacking during the Imperial Age, due to the lack of full armor upgrades for their cavalry, mediocre late-game economy, and absence of gunpowder units. This matches their level of success across history; despite their incredible military record during the 13th Century, their strength began to decline later due to the rise of gunpowder and other military innovations that countered their light cavalry. The era of Mongol conquest ended at roughly the same point when the Imperial Age begins in the game.
Their Mangudai UU are weak to the Saracens' Mamluks. The Egyptian Mamluks' destruction of the invading Mongol army at Ain Jalut (1260) is often marked as the end of the period of Mongol expansion.
The Mongols have a below average Monastery since they were mostly religious pluralistic^note and Genghis Khan himself practiced religious tolerance (something unthinkable for many European kingdoms). However, the Mongols have the Heresy technology (a tech that instantly kills a unit when converted by an enemy), which reflects on Genghis Khan being very big on Undying Loyalty.

Native American civilizations

The Aztecs and Incas can train cavalry if they convert an enemy stable, but not the Mayans, as they lack the Redemption technology. This references them living in a thickly forested, humid peninsula where raising horses is unviable.
Unlike the Aztecs and Incas, the Mayans never formed an empire (just confederations of city states at most) and were way past their peak (250-900 AD) when the Spanish appeared. This would further prevent them from adopting European tactics like cavalry, which would need a powerful state leadership organizing them (at least initially), or calling up large armies in short notice (like the Aztecs can in game with their fast training bonus, and the Incas with their extra-space in houses).
Besides serving as a foil for the Aztecs, the game's Mayans relying on fast but beefy Eagle Warriors and Plumed Archers also resembles how Mayan warfare was based on quick surprise attacks and ambushes by elite warriors mostly armed with spears and javelins, even if they didn't exactly have Eagle Warriors (an Aztec unit) or rely much on archery in real life.
- Furthermore, and unlike what their bare-chested appearance might suggest, both units have decent pierce armor. This recalls the light but effective cotton and jade armor that Mayan elite warriors used in real life.
Mayans lack the final swordsman upgrade but have the final spearman upgrade; for the Aztecs, it's the opposite. This again reflects the former elite's preference for spears and the latter's for swords (macuahuitl). Meanwhile, the Incas have access to both (they are the only civ in the entire game to have a full Barracks roster, in fact), which recalls their historical use of massed metal maces, axes, spears, and even halberds, at the expense of the state.

Portuguese

Like the Spanish, the Portuguese are a subpar civilization in the early game but are much more formidable by the Imperial Age. Historically, Portugal was not a true world power until the Age of Discovery towards the end of II's timeframe.
Their unique buildings and units:
- The Portuguese were the first European power to begin exploration and colonization, especially along the coasts of Africa, so their Feitoria building really makes sense, because no matter what, there are always resources flowing in from *somewhere* (the colonies). And if you rely too much on Feitorias, they will fill out a lot of your population slots.
- Also, historically, the Portuguese were almost always outnumbered in any fights and wars they got themselves into, not to mention having a relatively low population when in comparison to their European peers (or the African and Asian empires they invaded). However, both Portuguese unique units (Caravel and Organ Gun) are good at crowd control in their respective element.
Unlike their neighbors, the Portuguese imported English longbowmen (for example, at Aljubarrota) and had an ordinance forcing all towns to provide the King with a number of trained, professional crossbowmen should he need them, the Besteiros do Conto. While the game's Portuguese don't have access to longbowmen, they do have a full foot Archer roster that includes Crossbowmen and Arbalesters, unlike the Spanish.
On a meta level, their Achievement for completing the Francisco de Almeida campaign is called "Age of Discovery". This is the name of the initial age in the original release of Age of Empires III^note, which is also the first time in the series' history that the Portuguese appeared as a playable faction.
Update 73855 granted the Portuguese a team bonus that sped up all Portuguese teammates' research speed by 25% as a result of their previous team bonus (free Cartography) now being a core gameplay feature. This new bonus makes sense since Portugal shared most of their findings with other civilizations. For example, the Portuguese introduced Japan to Gunpowder weaponry, notably the Arquebuses that quickly replaced whatever primitive gunpowder weapons Japan might have had at that period.
- They also got a new bonus to make up for their previous research bonus being turned into a team bonus: Their "wood from berries" bonus. If you take a look, you'll notice that villagers do not just pick berries, but the whole bush disappears too. So now we know that bushes themselves are used for lumber. Also, almost all of the cork used in wine bottles comes from Portugal since the cork industry is quite big there, and many other civs with wine themes such as the Franks and Burgundians either get farm or berry bush bonuses.

Sicilians

At first sight, the Sicilians appear to overlap with the Italians. However, there are people that wanted the Normans included for years, and Sicilians have also filled in for some Norman factions in the campaigns.
Normans have a reputation for heavy cavalry, which makes only getting Cavaliers seem strange at first. The bonuses that go along with said Cavaliers have been thought out; the resistance to counter damage is consistent with the fact that Normans were fierce opponents to the Byzantines (discounted trash units, Cataphracts in the case of infantry) and Saracens (Camels), while later in the middle ages their relevance diminished (they would lose in a straight fight against fully-upgraded Paladins). A later update gave the Cavaliers a unique technology of Hauberks (+1/2 armor) to further cement their strength.

Spanish

The Spanish are weak in the early ages, then turn increasingly strong after they hit the Castle Age. This is a mirror of the weakness and irrelevance of the Iberian Christian kingdoms before the 11th century. By the late game, the Spanish turn into one of the strongest civilizations in the game, mirroring Spain's emergence as a world power around 1500.
The biggest weakness in early Spanish gameplay is the lack of crossbowmen upgrades. While the Medieval Spanish did use crossbows in real life, archery wasn't cultivated as much as in other countries, and bows often took a backseat to slings and javelins in the battlefield.
The Spanish wonder is Seville's Tower of Gold. At first glance, this seems a cheap reference to Conquistadors and an oversight - the building is famously of Muslim (Almohad) origin, while the game Spanish stand in for the Iberian Christian kingdoms. But in truth, only the lower section of the tower is Almohad: the middle one was added by the Castilians in the 14th century and the upper one after the conquest of the Americas. Thus the wonder is actually a clever summation of Spain's history in the game's time period.
The Conquistador also starts making more sense if you pretend that it isn't really a mounted gunner but a mounted javelineer... like the "Genitour" it replaced during development. Players have traditionally considered it disappointing because it is too weak and has too little range to win battles by itself and acts best as an auxiliary to heavy cavalry, raiding villagers, or harassing infantry with hit and run tactics, but without the finesse and security of a cavalry archer. In other words, exactly what the historical light cavalry, javelin-throwing Spanish "Jinetes" were. The decision to use guns instead of javelins was perhaps motivated by consistency, because the vanilla had used hand cannoneers as Infantry counters and foot javelineers (Skirmishers) as Archer counters (instead of using Slingers like in Rise of Rome), but a ranged anti-archer unit would have been indeed too weak to merit being the main UU of a civilization. A good alternate solution would have been to give the Spanish Jinetes, but with the stats and abilities of the Burmese Arambai introduced in Rise of the Rajas.
Conquistadors do make sense in the way they carry the civilization almost entirely by themselves in the Castle Age, when they are one of the most powerful unique units in the game. In the Imperial Age they fade in relation to other units, and some pros don't even upgrade their Conquistadors to Elite despite abusing them in the Castle Age. Much like the Spanish colonization of the Americas, your early expedition is dominated by soldiers of fortune, but proper colonization later requires a standing army.

Vietnamese

The Vietnamese are classified as a Stone Wall civilization, yet they do not have access to two important building upgrades (Masonry and Architecture) that makes their buildings more durable. This is often reflected on the fact throughout Vietnamese history, whenever a major power or empire like China, France, or Japan have occupied and invaded Vietnam, many of Vietnam's major cities were often easily occupied by the invaders. Instead, much of Vietnamese's defensive capacity comes from their heavy use of Hit-and-Run Tactics and their quickly deployed army that often consist of peasants and volunteers (which is reflected with their beefy archers, their Imperial Skirmisher upgrade, and free Conscription civilization bonuses) and many of their base of operations happen to be located in secluded and isolated areas.
- This is also highlighted in many of the scenarios in the Le Loi campaign in the game, where most of your starting positions happen in small, isolated areas, while the Ming and your opponent starting positions happen to be fortified towns and cities that have been occupied by the Ming dynasty.
Likewise, the Vietnamese as a civilization are considered to be a Magikarp Power civilization due to the fact the Vietnamese faced various invasions from powerful empires such as the Mongols and were occupied by the Ming dynasty, but the Vietnamese became formidable and strong when they drove out the Ming occupiers.
Their unique unit, the Rattan Archer, is a high pierce armor archer unit, which also happens to fight effectively well against the Mongol unique unit, the Mangudai, and the Chinese unique unit, the Chu Ko Nu. Both the Chinese and Mongol empires occupied Vietnam at several points in the country's history during the game's time period, but the Vietnamese managed to successfully drive them off and defended against.

Vikings

Vikings are particularly strong during the Feudal Age because they have free access to Wheelbarrow, their infantry units have more hit-points, and their warships are cheaper. Their options become much more limited in the late game, however, because they don't have access to gunpowder and their cavalry is among the worst in the entire game. The Feudal Age, as represented in II, spans roughly from the coronation of Charlemagne as Holy Roman Emperor in 800 A.D. until the Battle of Hastings in 1066 A.D., when William the Conqueror took over the English crown and brought England into a golden age. This period is almost exactly the same as the Viking Age, which began in 793 (seven years before Charlemagne's coronation) and ended with Harald III's defeat at the hands of Harold the Saxon shortly before the Battle of Hastings.
At sea, they are among the most powerful civilizations through the game. In other words, as the game goes on, Vikings get better at landing, raiding and leaving in their boats when real opposition shows up. Their UU is not good at sustaining a long fight, but its self-healing makes it good to annoy other players with a raid after another, not needing to place them in buildings or to bring along monks to heal the injured.

Other civilizations

Persian War Elephants are irritatingly vulnerable to conversion by monks. This seems stupid (especially since the elephants have no rider) until you realize that the main weakness of war elephants in real life was that they panicked easily in battle and trampled the soldiers on their own side. Furthermore, enemy commanders went out of their way to capture and bring back at least one elephant alive for the victory parade home - and so do a lot of non-Persian AoK players.
Like the Sicilians above, it may seem like an overlap to include Burgundians (with the Franks) in Lords of the West, but seeing that there's at least part of the userbase that would like to see the Dutch represented, Burgundians also cover the Low Countries, with their wonder being the Town Hall of Brussels.
The Byzantines in the Ivaylo campaign were referred to explicitly as Romans. This makes sense, because while the Western Kingdoms at the time balk at the very idea that the Byzantines were still Roman, the Slavic and Muslim peoples of the time still referred to them as Roman, given the Turkish name for the region is Rum.
The Celts being specialized in destroying castles is probably taken from Robert the Bruce's rebellion, which consisted mostly of the Scots seizing their own castles from the English and burning them down.
The Lithuanian UU has the ability to ignore armor, which makes it superb against both The Teutonic Knights and Slavic Boyars.
The Slavs, being a siege and infantry spamming civilization, are best suited to counter the Teutons. Their UU, the Boyar, has great melee armor and is the only cavalry unit that can fight Teutonic Knights one on one. The Boyar's vulnerability to arrows and their reliance on infantry and siege, however, makes Slavs suffer against the Mongols.
In an inversion of the Mongol entry above, the Gurjaras' Shrivamsha Rider's dodging ability and their tough camels make them a hard match for the Saracens' Mamelukes and Camel Riders, Huns' massed Cavalry Archers, and Mongols' fast Siege weapons, strong Light Cavalry, and Mangudai; all of which tried to invade India and were defeated in Gurjara territory. However, the Shrivamsha's ability falls flat against Portuguese Organ Guns, who shred their shield with sheer firepower. It is needless to say what happened to India when foreign armies with massed guns showed up.

Fridge Horror

General

Some players were wondering about the meaning behind the Defeat music and believe it doesn't fit in with the game. The apparent meaning is that your ruined civilization has been condemned to go back to the dark ages or completely disappear as your surviving people (now reduced to disheartened, nomadic refugees) are fleeing into the wilderness and into other kingdoms to escape the downfall.

Fridge / Age of Empires II

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Fridge Brilliance

Fridge Horror