North Korea

I sense a certain amount of self-fulfillingness with your "war is inevitable" prophecy, Major Tom.

@Aprilla: War with South Korea and the United States, those along with North Korea are the primary belligerents in such a case. The Chinese are a wildcard belligerent though suspected of being roped into defending North Korea in the event of war one way or another. The Japanese are another wildcard but far less likely to join in.

^ Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. We've seen these kinds of shenanigans before (well maybe not involving nuclear weapons) in human history. One of the most recent being Germany just prior to the invasion of Poland.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:15:48 AM by MajorTom

Godwin alert!

Nice job denying history.

The North Koreans are closer to the USSR then nazi Germany.

I don't really see how English Ivy is denying history. The comparison between North Korea and Nazi Germany is obtuse, and North Korea has a very different cultural and ideological infrastructure. We shouldn't forget the past, but we also shouldn't be anchored to it, lest we start judging blindly and with prejudice.

And the USSR was known for pulling various sometimes violent shenanigans sometimes as a tug trying to start a war. (One of the biggest was the Cuban Missile Crisis which literally was a phone call away from World War III.)

The parallel is more astute to compare to Nazi Germany because they did their stuff in increasing and increasingly violent frequency. The same has been going on with North Korea for a while now.

The war never actually ended so...

We're (supposed to be) in ceasefire.

Comparing a country that was ready to try to conquer significant portions of the world to a country that has to know it can't possibly win a military campaign under its own power seems disingenuous to me. That said, I'm willing to believe that NK will try to get away with anything they can just up until the point of no return. It's largely up to South Korea where that line ends up being drawn.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:27:27 AM by Karkadinn

Just because the players and level of quality is different doesn't mean the same events cannot happen again.

Jesus Tom, you have such a bad debate style, because there is absolutly NO give and take with you. Your view is the only right one, and everyone else clearly hasn't thought about it enough.

You seem to be absolutely desperate for there to be some sort of conflict, and whilst I admit its a strong possibility I don't think that anyone who says otherwise is a drooling simpleton, so please try and keep it on an even keel, or your just going to end up harming your arguement.

I actually can't really see the others in this thread doing much better, Josef, so.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:30:00 AM by Edmania

I don't think war between the US and China is likely in the next 10 years with ~90% certainty. 95-98% if the situation on the Korean peninsula is resolved peacefully. And I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is, if you can find a prediction market that'll handle it.

So just a question, if China happens to side with NK, what then?

World War III. No question about it.

I find it hard to imagine China risking battle with the US at the moment as well, given their general situation.

I find it hard to imagine the US risking battle with North Korea at the moment as well, given their general situation.

Can we keep it a bit civil, here?

The implosion of North Korea will be incredibly messy. The humanitarian crisis from such a collapse, even if it doesn't result in a regional war, will be huge. Add to that, the distinct possibility that control will be lost on their nuclear material to former members of the North Korean military or leadership, who then tries to sneak the stuff out for personal profit to whoever is willing to pay for it. (Not saying it will happen, just that it could.)

If the only foreseeable options are implosion or a regional war, I want to take a third option - the first two choices are flat-out lousy for everyone - especially the average malnourished North Korean citizen who has been lied to for sixty years. It sucks to be them.

But what is the third option? Numerous attemtps to get North and Southto sit down for talks have met with precious little in progress. Yes, they have workers going back and forth, but didn't a lot of that get canned in recent months? The South's president is also acting belligerant - well, not acting weak, I don't know. North Korea also seems to be unwilling to budge on pretty much everything, and are doing a really nice job of practicing brinkmanship diplomacy. Can China dangle some tasty carrots to persuade the North? Can Russia do something similiar? What can we as the United States do differently?

EDITS: I can't spell.

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:42:45 AM by pvtnum11

If anything more soldiers should be stationed in SK I guess.

America has neither the will nor the funds to go into WW3 at this point regardless of any provocation. We had to borrow money from China just to keep functioning, for heaven's sakes.

I don't think that China is dumb enough to start WW3 just like that, because they'd lose a lot of customers if that happened. Also death.

Why not? If China is able to take the US down a peg they become the top country, a very good position to be in.

We had to borrow money from China just to keep functioning, for heaven's sakes.

This isn't quite an accurate description of how international investment works.

Josef, I agree with that assesment. China risks a massive economic disaster if war between the USA and them was to occur. We're their largest customer currently. We boycott their goods due to war, they lose much of their economy. We're more like conjoined twins now - we're dependent on their money and credit, they're dependent on us buying their cheap stuff at Wal-Mart most any store you look at.

But if China diversifies their exports to other nations, they'll be less dependent on our consumerism mentality to prop up their economic growth. Does that mean that they'll go to war with us eventually? I don't think they'll have to, unless some really stupid decisions (on either part) are made in the future.

Hm.. there has been a large buildup in China's PLA lately. (It's considered one of the largest armies in the world.) I suppose yes, they're quite willing for the conflict.

Many of our production is outsourced to China also — what happens to us if they cut us off?

edited 23rd Nov '10 10:51:55 AM by QQQQQ