Book 4, Chapter 16: The Hall Of Mirrors
One category of recurrent problems that are endemic to the field of espionage are those of ‘cognitive traps’—systemic biases in thinking and analysis that lead the intelligence analyst down blind alleys and towards incorrect conclusions. These can come about from the personal biases of the individual analyst or from larger scale biases on the part of the organization to which they belong, but in all cases, it is a systemic issue that can cause large scale problems based on the garbage-in, garbage-out principle—if your assumptions about why an action was taken are incorrect, then your conclusions will also be incorrect.
The most common cognitive trap is that of ‘mirror imaging’—the assumption that the subject of the analysis thinks, considers, and acts in a manner much like that of the analyst themselves, thereby rendering their actions in the structure of “How would I act if I was in their place?” This particular trap is pernicious, as it can be hard to recognize unless confronted—and when it reaches the organizational level, it can be hard for individual analysts to challenge, as the conclusions, even if flawed, typically come from senior members of their organization who will be acknowledged experts.
But this trap is particularly dangerous, beyond how it can lead to incorrect conclusions, as it can cause an inexperienced analyst to view a dissenting viewpoint as a personal attack on themselves, which can result in them growing more attached to their own analysis in response. Such entrenched opinions, especially in a person of responsibility and decision-making power, can be catastrophic. Having the ability to bring in dissenting voices, especially from other backgrounds, can be helpful in combating this, but the analyst needs to hear those opinions and have the experience and necessary dispassion to be able to separate themselves and their personal egos from the structure of their work…
—Statecraft: The Great Game of Diplomacy, Espionage & War By Other Means, 1732, Rouen University Press
Tropes that appear in this chapter:
- Chekhov's Gunman: Yishai ben Yaakov, the guy who discovered the fraud case and Mildew's letter, is hired by Heather to be one of her analysts.
- Entertainingly Wrong:
- The Romans assume Dogsbreath "tamed" Inga after they discover she was from an all-women tribe. Cami laughs at the absurdity of the idea.
- One Roman scholar insists that the Bog Burglars, being an 'all-women' tribe, have to be the same group as the Amazonian Women and that the Norse gods are the same ones as the Ancient Greek gods, just with different names.
- I Reject Your Reality: Milhalis has a theory that the Bog Burglars are the actual Amazons. He really wants this theory to be right, facts be damned, and Cami tells Astrid that he has been harassing Inga by asking the same question hoping she'd confirm the theory in spite of her telling him several times the Bogs have a different history.
- Psychological Projection: The epigraph discusses the tendency of intelligence analysts to assume another person thinks like them, which can lead to horribly wrong conclusions.
