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Oroboro Since: Nov, 2011
#1801: Jun 2nd 2012 at 10:11:36 PM

I'm fairly certain I know who your culprits are, And I believe you misinterpreted me, I meant your culprit was a casualty of the first twilight. But for the sake of everyone else in this discussion, why not stop being coy and just state it outright so we can debate this like proper gentlemen? smile

And the issue I'm raising with 1st game, 2nd twilight isn't the whodunnit, but the howdunnit. If you deny Shkannon, the chain of illusions becomes a chain of steel.

Edit: The thing about Shkannon lacking the darker undertones to plan such grizzly murders is true, but that's because Shkannon probably didn't actually kill anyone. She just wrote creepy fanfiction in which she murdered all her closest relatives. The truth of Rokkenjima Prime will forever remain in the catbox, but I believe she's innocent there. However, trying to deny her guilt in the game board's themselves is far more difficult.

For the 2nd game, 4/5/6, I believe Battler observed the corpses, and described the wounds as being similar to gunshot wounds, but he never found any gun. There's actually a pretty neat trick to that one that Ryukushi revealed later in an interview.

You also seem to be forgetting about Alibi's. 2nd game, 2nd twilight, I think everyone that wasn't Jessica/Kanon/Kinzo/already dead was with Battler at the time. Certainly your two supposed culprit's anyway. Who would've had time to hide the body?

edited 2nd Jun '12 10:50:21 PM by Oroboro

BokhuraBurnes Radical Moderate from Inside the Bug Pit Since: Jan, 2001
Radical Moderate
#1802: Jun 2nd 2012 at 11:15:08 PM

Keeping up the plea for hidden spoilers. (The stuff above may NOT be spoilers in and of itself, but I'm still afraid it will give away the mystery before it's time. In any case, I've been too paranoid to read it, spoilers or no.)

Wow, the fourth episode is loooong. I feel like it's the length of the other three put together. (Although it could just be that a lot of it drags like anything.)

And what's with Kanon and Shannon remembering the past iterations of the game? Put that in the 'other things I don't understand' category.

Also, Rosa has become my least favorite character by far. Yes, I know she had a tough life and all that, but that still doesn't justify child abuse. Seriously, I don't know how Maria is not in foster care, given that Rosa was being neglectful and abusive in front of a social services worker.

Update more when more happens (I'm in between the first and second twilights now).

First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.
Oroboro Since: Nov, 2011
#1803: Jun 2nd 2012 at 11:24:23 PM

[up] What are you talking about? Rosa is clearly the BEST MOM EVER. evil grin (Also, I imagine social services in Japan in 1986 left a lot to be desired.)

You've probably noticed that Shannon and Kanon seem to be aware of the fantasy narrative. They interact with Beatrice, speak constantly about the nature of furniture, and do the whole Laser Blade / Barrier Warrior thing. What makes prior game knowledge surprising at this point?

I think you're almost through the dragging parts, and it picks up a bit later, so yay for that! I apologize for any indirect spoilers, and will try to continue being discreet in further arguments.

edited 2nd Jun '12 11:33:51 PM by Oroboro

magnum12 Since: Aug, 2009
#1804: Jun 3rd 2012 at 12:04:42 AM

[up]Very well, I will reveal it. I just hope this doesn't somehow end up as internet spoilers, thus screwing up the author's intentions about spoilers ruining it. Yes, I do agree about those two's innocence, just for a different reason.

I believe that Culprit Prime and Culprit Beta are Rosa and George. Dr. Nanjo is an accomplice. Shannon and Kanon are completely innocent, but for completely different reasons from the Shkannon Theory The objective of this theory is to prove Shannon and Kanon are innocent on the game board.

Suspected motive for George: I see some nasty paralells between George and late Revenge of the Sith Anakin. The motive was love for Shannon, albit dark, corrupted, possessive love. See my comments about a possible closet Yandere.

As per the very first twilight, the reason for Rosa not being a casualty is simple. This blue truth is not a spoiler because it is merely an opinion based on evidence.

Rosa is not a casualty because she pulled a move directly out of Takano's play book. If Shannon was the one pulling this move, it is impossible for her to be innocent.

In my academic opinion, drugs designed to fake one's own death are scientifically plausible. Only someone medically trained would be able to detect the ruse. The drug however would have to be administered and dosed by a trained doctor to prevent a lethal OD. No one thoroughly inspected Rosa's body due to the ruse. The mutilation of her face is fake as part of the faked death.

Motive for the deception: No one would ever suspect a supposedly dead person of being the culprit. This is exactly why Takano fakes her death on the Cotton Drifting Festival in Higurashi.

Its getting late and I'm going to be out of town for a while tommorrow. I will add more to this entertaining debate at a later time.

edited 3rd Jun '12 4:29:47 PM by magnum12

Oroboro Since: Nov, 2011
#1805: Jun 3rd 2012 at 12:27:27 AM

You should probably spoiler more of that.

Knox's 4th: It is forbidden for unknown drugs or hard to understand scientific devices to be used.

However, this rule may be averted with use of Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented. If there were any clues in regards to certain chemicals or drugs or any mention in the narrative at all of some sort of paralysis, it would be valid. But there's not.

If you think Rosa used a body double, consider there's no opportunity to prepare one, as well as the red truth from Lamdadelta-sama, "Beato clearly declared from the first game (red) the identities of all unidentified corpses are guaranteed.(red)

I'll admit that George is certainly a creeper, and I'd consider him a strong candidate from a culprit on Rokkenjima Prime. (My personal theory is that of a murder mystery gone wrong.) But prime is ultimately meaningless. As for the gameboards, don't forget George spends a lot of time around Battler, giving him a solid alibi. Same for Rosa in EP 2.

edited 3rd Jun '12 12:39:03 AM by Oroboro

BokhuraBurnes Radical Moderate from Inside the Bug Pit Since: Jan, 2001
Radical Moderate
#1806: Jun 3rd 2012 at 1:01:57 AM

[closes eyes to avoid spoilery posts]

[up][up][up] Much of the stuff above could either fall under the category of Unreliable Narrator/different set of RULES (as in the case of the fantastical elements) or metaphor (as in the use of the term furniture). In any case, it served to move the plot and characterization along. What's weird about the memories of previous iterations is how trivial it is — the story could have gotten along well enough without it, in my opinion. Which of course makes me think there's some massive significance to it that will be revealed later.

Also, although other characters have done fantastical things, this is the first time I've seen memories of previous games. Maria and Kinzo, for instance, have interacted with Beatrice, but neither of them seem to remember what happened before.

First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.
magnum12 Since: Aug, 2009
#1807: Jun 3rd 2012 at 5:21:41 PM

[up][up] I believe there may be a way to work around to Knox's 8th. This work around is based on the premise of "reasonable assumptions". For example, because Dr. Nanjo is a doctor, it would be a reasonable assumption to believe that he would have knowledge of medicines, knowledge of proper dosing, and that he would have a way to get access to said medicines.

Alternatively, Rosa may not of used drugs, but merely a physical disguise as part of her Takano ploy. For the purpose of definition, I will define a Takano ploy as any attempt to fake one's own death with the intent of deceiving one's targets. This is not limited to body doubles. No one inspected her body, only giving her a glancing view. Not enough to accurately determine a true death. Yet another example of human error in the Island Battler perspective.

Episode 1, Twilight 2 occured as the result of a betrayal of trust. The chain was opened more than once. Rosa's Takano ploy was involved in this murder, namely reapplying the chain before it was permanately destroyed. Speaking of Rosa, I do have several reasons why her as "Beatrice" makes sense.

1. Rosa as "Beatrice" explains why as long as Rosa is alive, Maria is never targeted in the twilights.

2. Rosa having split personality disorder explains why she is BOTH Mama Bear and an abusive parent at the same time. Maria's thoughts of "white witch" and "black witch" can also be explained by this.

3. Rosa knows that Maria would trust "Beatrice". That is why in the first three episodes, it is Maria that gets the letter. She also gets the key in episode 2.

4. Since Rosa and Beatrice share a Hime Cut, it is much easier for Rosa to disguise herself as Island Beatrice. All that would be needed is contact lenses, some temporary hair dye, and putting the hair up.

This brings up a truth regarding disguises.

The less deviations from one's natural appearance there are to the disguise, the easier AND more convincing the disguise is.

Upon relooking at episode 4 some more, mainly the part about Angi's talk with the stakes of purgatory about magic, belief, and atoning to Maria I'm starting to think I suspect the true purpose of the Shkannon theory as it relates to this series. This brings me to a blue truth.

The Shkannon Theory is a "truth of perspective". The concept of "truth of perspective" is similar to what Kenobi describes in Return of the Jedi. The purpose of this "truth of perspective" is to offer metaphorical "low hanging fruit" that is essentially a distraction that while possible to be true depending on one's interpretations, is not the true answer. This is similar to a tactic used in Persona4 to distract the player away from the Golden Ending. This leads me to another blue truth.

Will's solutions via extensive use of metaphor are INTENTIONALLY worded so as to have a double meaning. This double meaning is done so that the "truth of perspective" and the true solution are equally valid.

Yet another trick to distract the player with "low hanging fruit", but can also be a way to direct the player towards the true solution if used carefully. Through this, I can use another blue truth.

Ryukishi 07 is NOT lying with "the official explanation". He is however, still trolling the viewers by distracting us from the catbox by using the "truth of perspective". Ryukishi's trolling is akin to Mion's brand of trolling (gadfly behaviour with the goal of screwing with the viewers heads for harmless amusement) rather than Bernkastel/Terumi's brand of trolling.

Remember. It is possible to troll with the truth. Just ask Terumi about that one.

This brings me to what the objective is in order to truly get Umineko's Golden Ending of sorts, i.e. the cat box.

In order to get Umineko's Golden Ending of sorts, the player must defeat the Shkannon Theory.

I will be checking episode 2 some more to find some potentional squad split off points.

edited 3rd Jun '12 5:28:37 PM by magnum12

Oroboro Since: Nov, 2011
#1808: Jun 3rd 2012 at 6:00:50 PM

Something to remember, is that Knox's Decalogue, despite the way it's used in Umineko, it isn't a tool for readers. It's a tool for authors. A way to make the mystery game fair. If you stretch something as far as "reasonable assumptions", you eliminate that trust that comes from proper clues and foreshadowing. Plus, Doctor or no, drugs that can induce a near death state are very rare, and not really part of your standard physicians toolkit. Hell, even something like mentioning they were having blowfish for dinner could be considered a clue, albeit a somewhat flimsy one. But nada.

Keep in mind that your "Takano" ploy is the exact same thing Shkanon does in both EP 1 and EP 3, so trying to pin it on Rosa is just the same crime mechanics with a different face, and flimsier evidence pointing towards her. Same with Nanjo being an accomplice.

You have your own reasons for believing in the motives and identity of the culprit, and while I much prefer the narrative of Shkannon, I can't outright deny an alternative truth. However, the burden of proof falls upon you to justify every murder mechanically in a way that does not bypass the red.

For example: 1st game, second twilight. In the narrative, we are shown Kanon and Kumasawa discover that Eva/Hideoyoshi, and when opening the door they find the chain set and Eva's apparent corpse. The two rush to grab boltcutters, and when they return, a mysterious magic circle has appeared, and the two are dead in a seemingly closed room. In the mystery narrative, "Illusions to illusions. A chain of illusions can only hold back illusions." The chain was never set in the first place. It was just a lie. Either Kumasawa was an accomplice (Likely under the promise of gold, the threat of a bomb, or possibly even under the belief that it was just a game, and the murder victims were just playing dead.) or she was tricked into believing the chain was set.

Can you provide an explanation to this using your culprits? For every twilight?

edited 3rd Jun '12 6:15:24 PM by Oroboro

magnum12 Since: Aug, 2009
#1809: Jun 3rd 2012 at 11:05:23 PM

Episode 2, Twilight 1. The servants thought (incorrectly) that the door to the chapel was locked. It was never locked. They had valid reason to believe so, seeing as no on ever goes in. Rosa pretended to unlock the door. Since 7 people entered and only one came out alive (Rosa), Rosa is the killer. Weapon used: Based on the horrific wounds, most likely a shot gun.

Episode 2, Twilight 2. Sometime after leaving the chapel, there were 4 "squads". Squad 1: Jessica and Kanon. Squad 2: Genji and Shannon. Squad 3: Rosa. Squad 4: Everyone else. Rosa was indeed apart from Battler sometime after leaving the chapel.

After the split up, Rosa reclaimed the shotgun from Kinzo's study. After doing so, while split up from the other squads, she killed Jessica and Kanon. Rosa locked the door with Kanon's key, moved Kanon's body, reunited with the group, and secretly handed Dr. Nanjo Kanon's key. Dr. Nanjo then used sleight of hand to make it seem that Kanon's key was in Jessica's pocket. Dr. Nanjo says that the death was very recent, supporting this blue truth. The magical perspective's function here is merely to describe the cause of death and the fact that Kanon's key was used to lock the door at some point. The range of the kill however, was signigicantly further than the kills in the first twilight.

The fact that Rosa is constantly sowing dischord and mistrust by placing suspiscion amongst the survivors is highly suspicious, seeing as this was yet another one of Takano's tactics, seeing as in the Eye Opening and Atonement chapters it was her "research" that initiates the sowing of paranoia. This is then augmented by the white vans, which means she was even corrupting Keiichi in the Spirited By the Demon chapter.

Episode 2: Twilights 4-6 (based on the order Battler's group sees it). We know Rosa has all the servant's master keys at this point, so this is a closed room scenario. George leaves Battler's squad after the keys are handed. Gohda, George, and Shannon are dead in this room.

I believe that the stakes themselves were the weapons. Seeing as this was done in CQC, I suspect that George is involved here. At this point, Shannon would have to know that George is a murderer. The mess in Natsui's room indicates a likely struggle. George tries an "Anakin convince your lover to join alongside you bit". Shannon wants nothing to do with this and him for being a murderer. In an Anakin style fit of rage, George attacks Shannon, stabbing her in the frontal lobe with the stake. In self defense, Shannon stabs George with a stake. This is a mutual kill with George bleeding out. I'm aware of the trick Ryukishi says, but I have an alternate explanation for Shannon's stake.

Due to the the stake that killed Shannon not going very deep, it is easy for the stake to fall out. The other stakes could resemble a gun wound due to the depth of the wounds.

Episode 2, twilights 7-8: Wound appears to be from a slashing weapon. Yet another CQC death.

I believe George actually did this kill before twilights 4-6. It is twilight 7-8 because Battler's group saw it later.

edited 3rd Jun '12 11:55:20 PM by magnum12

neobowman つ ◕_◕ ༽つ HELIX from Unidentified Proxy Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
つ ◕_◕ ༽つ HELIX
#1810: Jun 3rd 2012 at 11:15:09 PM

I'd love to get into this Red/Blue fight but I have sooo much homework T_T.

BokhuraBurnes Radical Moderate from Inside the Bug Pit Since: Jan, 2001
Radical Moderate
#1811: Jun 4th 2012 at 12:11:54 AM

Ok, the plot just went from 'non-existant' to 'batshit insane'. When Jessica fighting Ronove is the most normal thing going on, it's worth noting. I just...don't have words for whatever the match between Krauss and the goat servant was supposed to be (with the counter at the bottom). And since when did this turn into Portal? (I kept having images of Gaap promising cake to George at the tea party).

Needless to say, I have no idea how you explain any of this. It was great fun, though.

(Actually, the one serious thing I picked up was that there was some connection between Ronove and Ginzo. Along with the Virgilia-Kumasawa connection, I could see some of the fantastical figures being reflections of the more mundane characters, Wizard Of Oz style. On the other hand, I have no idea who Gaap would represent, and this doesn't explain anything about the Stakes of Purgatory or the Siesta Sisters, so...maybe not.)

First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.
neobowman つ ◕_◕ ༽つ HELIX from Unidentified Proxy Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
つ ◕_◕ ༽つ HELIX
#1812: Jun 4th 2012 at 12:45:01 AM

Haha, yes, episode 4 and the loser-goat. Great fun.

Arha Since: Jan, 2010
#1813: Jun 4th 2012 at 3:12:30 AM

Loser goat is best goat. Not that that's hard.

I find it pointless to try to invalidate that theory, personally. Was Yasu the actual murderer in the original incident? Almost certainly not, but that doesn't go for the games themselves.

LiberatedLiberater 奇跡の魔女 from [DATA EXPUNGED] Since: Jun, 2011
奇跡の魔女
#1814: Jun 4th 2012 at 3:18:53 AM

I believe that the stakes themselves were the weapons.

Red truth: disproven by Our Confessions. "Beatrice" used the stakes to cover up the actual gunshot wounds. Even if you have no knowledge of this, Episode 5 states that the stakes are just cheap paperweights bought by Kinzo. They do have some penetrating ability, but almost certainly not enough to do grievous harm.

Actually, just read Our Confessions. Most of your theory has been shot down by it. You should also consider that the first two games were borderline fanfiction written by Beatrice, and only Episodes 3-6 use knowledge from 1998, i.e., the aftermath of the murders.

MAL || vndb || Blog
Oroboro Since: Nov, 2011
#1815: Jun 4th 2012 at 8:24:08 AM

The tricky part here is Rosa almost certainly WAS an accomplice in EP 2. She went along with Yasuda's plan because she promised to let her and Maria go, and hey, free gold.

This screenshot says it all, really.

edited 4th Jun '12 8:48:54 AM by Oroboro

BokhuraBurnes Radical Moderate from Inside the Bug Pit Since: Jan, 2001
Radical Moderate
#1816: Jun 5th 2012 at 7:20:53 AM

Through a marathon binge, I finished episode 4 last night.

First off, I'm now accepting the red text (at least for now) — seeing Battler struggle against it made me find it easier to believe that it is actually able to constrain people.

Second, it's clear that both Beatrice and Battler are way off on the explanations they are giving. Beato is obviously hiding things, and Battler is just sounding ridiculous (although I want tiny bombs in my Halloween candy as well!) As things are right now, Lambadelta will be the winner — of course, I'm expecting that to change in the next few episodes.

Third, I think the points I've been making (about the importance of RULES, the power of love to change things, and so on) are still broadly valid. There's been enough thematic confirmation of these throughout the question arcs to make me believe they are significant.

That being said, I wonder if there's something about the game as a whole that I've been missing. So far, I've been buying the idea that the way Battler wins over Beatrice is by denying her existence, and explaining things (or setting the RULES) to make it impossible for her to be a witch. But what if that's not the case?

See, one of the things that struck me most about the last episode was that two of the most trusted figures (Ange and Kyrie) tried to convince Battler that yes, magic really does exist. Although this could be a bit of misdirection, it could also imply that Battler's hard-core skeptic position is silly (and the examples he comes up with don't help his case). At the same time, Ange talks about the difference between true magic and false magic in her final scene.

So what if Battler doesn't need to prove that Beatrice isn't a witch, but rather that she's a false witch?

It seems plausible that something called Beatrice exists (otherwise, I have no idea what kills Battler at the end of the fourth episode). And I like the idea of it being born out of the hatred of the real Beatrice (Kinzo's mistress), in the same way that witch-Eva came from Eva's resentments (which reminds me: could this exist anywhere else? I wouldn't find the idea of a witch-Rosa at all surprising, for example). But what if Beato, witch-Eva, and all the others are manifestations of a single spirit (call it 'the thousand-year witch') that, although possessing a certain measure of power, is a perversion of magic rather than an example of true magic? One that only had the power to kill, but not to exist?

How might this work? Think about how the red text said that something Battler did six years ago, connected to his dad's inheritance schemes, led to the deaths on Rokkenjima, but that it didn't involve Beatrice directly (even though it seemed to affect her in some way). Let's say that whatever this was part of the final push leading Kinzo to turn against his children. At some point between then and now, Kinzo decides that family love doesn't exist, and that it's worthwhile to give into his hatred. At this point, he gives himself over to the thousand-year witch (in other words, he 'dies' as a person), and the rest is bloody history. Maybe this even happens the night of the conference — he's actually alive when people come to Rokkenjima, but five minutes or so before the murders start (the 'game' begins), he 'kills' himself by giving himself over to the witch, thus satisfying the red text while simultaneously explaining how everyone knows him.

Perhaps a similar process works for Eva — she gives herself over to the thousand-year witch sometime after she discovers the gold, thereby allowing her to commit murders that are outside of her character. (Objection to this I don't have a great answer for: at the end of the third episode, just before Battler dies, Beatrice says in red text that Eva is alive. Desperate counter on my part: maybe she is in an 'in-between' state, where she is both her own person AND controlled by Beatrice. Thus the scenes with her and Hideyoshi in her room are both true and false, and she is both alive and dead. Schrodinger's cat's box is only opened to find her dead when Battler sees her shoot him.)

What does Battler need to do then? Not deny there is any such thing as magic, but show that the thousand-year witch's magic is truly pathetic and not meant to be called magic. He does this by showing love and compassion, and thereby takes control of the RULES.

Of course, this is obviously completely false, but it's the best I can come up with. On to the answer arcs!

On a related note, I hope the format gets mixed up soon. It's beginning to fall in a bit of a rut — people die in seemingly fantastical ways, Beatrice claims it's magic, Battler denies her, no resolution occurs at the end. The meta plot needs to advance more.

And I don't care — this time, I'm sure there was no third twilight (there was no TIME between the second and fourth ones.) Something's up with that.

And also, something's up with the all caps names (i.e. ANGE and Ange are different in some sense.) Or maybe I've been reading too much Tsukihime.

edited 5th Jun '12 7:23:13 AM by BokhuraBurnes

First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.
jkbeta from right behind you Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: You cannot grasp the true form
#1817: Jun 5th 2012 at 7:38:43 AM

The format will change - the Core Arcs are significantly heavier on meta-plot, and even the non-meta-plot breaks out of its rut.

magnum12 Since: Aug, 2009
#1818: Jun 5th 2012 at 1:08:05 PM

Alright, I'll fold. The whole problem I have with the Shkannon theory is why lie about being guilty when you're innocent. Unless.... her lies FridgeBrilliance are the critical clue in solving Incident Prime. Perhaps this clue is how we're supposed to be interpreting these episodes. This brings me to a blue truth.

The truth behind incident prime is the sum of the first 4 episodes. Our objective is actually the commonalities between the four episodes.

What is in common between them? First, the casualties.

A character's net casualty order is a potential indicator of their innocence.

This theory is a guideline, so it on its own is NOT perfect. The premise behind this is simply probability theory. We can rule out characters who on average tend to die early. Take casualty number for each episode, with 10 meaning not a twilight, divide by four. That is their net casualty number. Anyone with a number greater than five is more likely to be guilty, though this is NOT absolute. Rosa's number for example is 5.5 or 5.75 depending on how you interpret episode 4.

Maria is certainly innocent, but the commonalities involving her are a clue to Incident Prime.

It seems that episodes where she is likely to last a long time are ones where Rosa survives a long time (episode 1 is the exception), which might explain why she lives a long time. She is also the one that gets the opening items, suggesting a connection to the culprit.

The most likely guilty parties in Incident Prime are Rosa, George, and Dr. Nanjo.

My strategy for finding the culprit/hidden villain is to try to identify an aura of "something's not right", and underlying malice. Sort of like a Detect Evil sense. Do my instincts tell me I can trust someone? Are they hiding something in their actions and mannerisms? This instinct based passive predator (start finding clues after the red flags pop up) strategy has been very successful for me. These people are the only ones that seem to register on my radar. I'm certain Kanon, Shannon, most of the servants, George's parents, and Jessica are innocent. This tactic has allowed me to successfully detect Higurashi Shion/Takano, Avitus, Persona4 Adachi, Disgaea3 Geoffry, Bernkastel's true colors, and others. I believe I have already explained George's motive. His "red flag" was in episode 4. Rosa on the other hand...

I suspect Rosa is mentally unstable compared to the other 4 siblings.

edited 5th Jun '12 2:21:19 PM by magnum12

Crinias from The Bleak Academy Since: Dec, 2009 Relationship Status: Mu
#1819: Jun 5th 2012 at 2:53:48 PM

[up] Is that it? Instinct? I can understand that upon exposure to many mystery novels or manga or anime one tends to develop some limited precognition regarding plot twists and identification of a guilty person before The Reveal (actually, this could also be said of Tvtropes in general), but Umineko goes above and beyond the scope of a normal mystery.

Umineko purposely misguides the reader, especially if they are expecting twists. Pure instinct or a Detect Evil sense isn't going to be enough to reveal the culprit. Alright, so let me try to get this straight. You say that you have a probability theory for which you can say that some people are more likely to be guilty than others by how long they survive... And then you say that your main way of deducing who is guilty is by sheer instinct?

Furthermore, you completely ignore whole chunks of the narrative. If Rosa, George and/or Nanjo are the culprits, then who sent Beatrice's letter, and for what motive? Who is meta-world Beatrice and why does she give Battler the benefit of the Red Truth while simultaneously claiming to be the culprit? Why does the culprit leave Battler as the last surviving person in the first 4 Episodes? Answer me this.

edited 5th Jun '12 3:07:47 PM by Crinias

LiberatedLiberater 奇跡の魔女 from [DATA EXPUNGED] Since: Jun, 2011
奇跡の魔女
#1820: Jun 5th 2012 at 4:01:08 PM

And also, something's up with the all caps names (i.e. ANGE and Ange are different in some sense.)

It's nothing different really; stuff in all-caps just means that the name is in katakana to differentiate the "witch" persona from the "regular" persona.

MAL || vndb || Blog
adaira Since: Jan, 2012
#1821: Jun 5th 2012 at 4:14:16 PM

The meta plot does get advanced in the Answer arcs, have no fear about that.

I have no idea.
magnum12 Since: Aug, 2009
#1822: Jun 5th 2012 at 4:51:49 PM

[up][up][up] You misunderstand. The objective of the probability theory for Incident Prime is to rule out characters as being innocent. It goes by the idea that the culprit is more likely to survive longer. Therefore, those with a low survival score are therefore much more likely to be innocent. From the narrative, we know that Battler, Shannon, Kanon, and with a high probability Jessica and Maria are innocent. I'd like you to write up the chart of all of the survival scores of this by the siblings, cousins, and servants groups. If my hypothesis is correct than the top people of two respective groups should be Rosa and Dr. Nanjo. However, the cousins should score very high in general, so there's a flaw.

As per the instinct thing, its a combination tactic with in story clues. Think of it as being like a marker light that allows me to determine where I should most likely be paying attention. The "red flags" mean that I should mark the individual for further attention until proven otherwise. Detectives and police use clues and instinct in conjunction all the time.

LiberatedLiberater 奇跡の魔女 from [DATA EXPUNGED] Since: Jun, 2011
奇跡の魔女
#1823: Jun 5th 2012 at 5:02:32 PM

why lie about being guilty when you're innocent

Well done, you just completely missed the point of two characters in the story.

MAL || vndb || Blog
Oroboro Since: Nov, 2011
#1824: Jun 5th 2012 at 5:23:52 PM

Your " Detect Evil " sense works just as well the other way, y'know. There's a hell of a lot of suspicious things involving Shannon and Kanon. The fact that Battler never sees them together, their domination of the fantasy narrative, their constant references that they seem to know what's going on, the magic powers, red eyed demon Kanon, the constant talks about the nature of love and furniture.

Again, the nature of Umineko makes innocence in the gameboards a bit of a moot point anyway. EP 1/2 were just stories penned by Yasu and thrown into the ocean. Ep 3-4 were stories penned by Tohya-battler as he tried to work through his Amnesia. Ep5-6 were just weird. As to what happened in Rokkenjima Prime, the "real" world, all we know is there was an explosion, and that Eva and Battler survived. It's possible to make any number of theories as to what happened on that day, but there isn't enough information to make anything concrete.

But the gameboard was laid out a specific way, in which Shkannon is pretty obviously (In retrospect, anyway) the culprit. Even if you don't like Author theory, you can say that the meta narrative was real, that rather than making novels, Yasutrice was granted magic powers by Lambdadelta and used them to put Battler through the gameboards. But that doesn't change anything.

And like Crinias said, your theory does nothing to address the meta-narrative. More than half of Umineko is centered around Meta-Battler and his interactions and fights with Beatrice, not to mention pretty much the entirety of the "Answer" arcs. If Rosa is the culprit, or George, the meta narrative loses all it's meaning. Battler as a protagonist loses all meaning.

I said it before, and I'll say it again. Your theory lacks love.

BokhuraBurnes Radical Moderate from Inside the Bug Pit Since: Jan, 2001
Radical Moderate
#1825: Jun 9th 2012 at 11:14:50 PM

Didn't Beatrice's supposed death also happen 19 years ago? If that's the case, I'm wondering whether the person who died on the cliffs wasn't actually Beatrice, but rather the servant with the adopted baby. I do recall the fact of a death being confirmed, but I don't remember it being specified that it was Beatrice's death.

This of course would lead to the question of what happened to the 'real-world' Beatrice (Kinzo's lover). She obviously disappeared at some point, but she might have stayed around until whatever the traumatic events of six years ago were.

Also, loony theory time (not sure I believe this, but it would be interesting): Krauss is impotent. Instead, 19 years ago Natsuhi and Rudolf had an affair, and this led to the twin births of Battler and Jessica (one of whom went with each parent). If this is indeed true, it makes my first impression of a possible romance between Battler and Jessica even more obviously mistaken!

In any case, this whole Episode has been pretty sedate so far (although I'm expecting Battler to have a nasty surprise when he wakes up). Obviously, Lambadelta is a more serious GM than Beatrice is.

edited 9th Jun '12 11:15:40 PM by BokhuraBurnes

First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.

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