The South Asia Politics, News, and Analysis Thread

@ Shinra: Indian bureaucracy is notoriously slow.

edited 1st Jul '14 12:19:28 AM by Greenmantle

That's part of where the term "Licence Raj" comes from.

I'm well aware (the contract went out a decade ago), but I heard something about Dassault underbidding like whoa on the project. And India wanting HAL to build it.

In other news, there have been two building collapses in India. One in Delhi, the other in Chennai. About two dozen or so killed and the builders have been arrested. First Pakistan, then Bangladesh, now India. Any out of work architects/construction workers? Y'all would make a killing over there, as long as you don't mind brick and cement as your main construction materials...

The "new, official Chinese map" not just changed the way the disputed islands are displayed, it also made Arunachal Pradesh into Chinese territory...

And if you visit the Diplomat and read the article talking about this written by an Indian, you'll see that almost all of the comments are made by Chinese, because those same users also comment in articles talking about Japan and China, Vietnam and China, the Philippines and China, Taiwan and China, and USA and China, which for all intents and purposes wouldn't really be something an Indian would be commenting on (unless it's a more general "China and its neighbors" article). One of them even says that India should be "ashamed" of harboring the Dalai Lama, and instead of talking about this "inconsequential issue" about Arunachal Pradesh, the Indian government should be "kicking out" the Dalai Lama back to China.

edited 1st Jul '14 3:30:13 AM by entropy13

Yeah, China can go suck lemons with their territorial claims. This ain't 1962.

We agree on something to do with international relations at last.

We agree in the Arab Spring too.

Oh, you've come round to the Greater Kurdistan Empire plan, have you?

—

India to lodge protest with US over NSA snooping on BJP. Reading between the lines in the Times of India piece, it sounds like the BJP leadership were going to let it slide until the rank-and-file made a fuss. Modi seems conciliatory enough towards the US so far. There was also that diplomat/daycare scandal thingy a while back.

Drought expected in Western India due to poor monsoon. Oh dear. I suppose its a practical test for Modi's new govt.

General Bikram Singh is to visit China tomorrow. It's supposedly to enhance co-operation between the two militaries and smooth over a border defence agreement they signed last year. And yet, China supposedly just claimed Arunachal Pradesh as part of the People's Republic. Could that be a message to Gen. Singh ahead of his visit? Simple bad policy? Or evidence of a fractured Chinese political establishment? The plot thickens.

edited 1st Jul '14 3:53:31 PM by Achaemenid

The Chinese are masters at playing both sides of an issue.

Not the first time the Chinese have put AP in the map.

Yes, but why do it now, right ahead of a high-level contact by the Indian military? That - for me - is the issue here.

Because that's the "New China Way". Once the J-20 is in full production expect them to arrive in Pakistan. And that's "great" for India right? lol

China knows who those fancy new french fighter planes are really meant for.

The J-20 won't go to Pakistan. Islamabad can't afford it (they've barely been able to swallow the JF-17 order they're currently assembling at Kamra) for one, but for two Beijing would not want RAW getting their hands on that tech, which would be easier in Pakistan than in China.

On timing of the map, yeah that's meant to poke India in the eye. They're not as bad as they used to be, but India and China are still antagonistic.

That's not how China is working right now.

Giving Pakistan more capabilities is a "win-win" for them. If Pakistan stabilizes, they get a counterbalance on India without being directly involved.

If Pakistan "stays the course" or gets even worse they could have the pretext to increase their presence in the region because it is in their "core interests" that their military tech is "protected", and also because their Western Muslim neighbors are partly to blame in their troubles in West China, and this also allows them to say to India "you're doing a s**t job here, let us 'handle' things for you, oh and ALL YOUR NORTHERN STATES ARE BELONG TO US," and they also get to "pressure" India on surrendering the biggest terrorist the world has ever seen, the Dalai Lama, and his terrorist minions that are more terroristic than all the other terrorists combined.

edited 1st Jul '14 9:51:05 PM by entropy13

Er...no. India has a very capable defense for the north (like I said, this isn't 1962) and has increasingly focused on defending from China. Nevermind the fact that India and China trade enough (far more than China and Pakistan) that it blunts the practical antagonism that would otherwise follow the propaganda.

What you're talking about is Chinese policy from the 70s til Musharraf got the sack. Since then, Pakistan has deteriorated greatly, China's focus and economy have changed, and other priorities have emerged.

Pakistan has a very...ambitious...shopping list of Chinese military tech, including models currently in production, that they'd love to have. They aren't getting it though. Why? Money. GHQ has very little of it. Pakistan can't buy it, and the tech China uses is getting sophisticated enough (no more Chinese copies of Soviet stuff) that they actually do need to make some money off of it to make up R&D costs.

Yes, China gives them a discount for their wares, but they do not give it for free. And Pakistan really is that broke in that they can't take care of too many aircraft types. Indeed, the main reason they were able to internally justify the JF-17 purchase is because that way they can retire the A-5, F-6, F-7, and Mirage III and V models. They're simplifying their air force to JF-17s and F-16s to reduce operational and training costs. The Army would have to give up some of its funds for them to operate the J-20 and that just isn't happening.

And even that discount isn't cutting it anymore. Pakistan has practically been begging them for an entire new fleet, since they're main surface fleet mostly consists of ex-British Type 21s, even after the new frigates the Chinese gave them back when Musharraf ran things. And their sub fleet is in even worse shape, and for that they beg Beijing for nuke subs. China has not acquiesed.

The idea that Pakistani-based terrorism allows China to move on India doesn't hold water. For all their antagonism, the two powers share wariness of terrorism, particularly from Pakistan.

EDIT-

http://defence.pk/forums/ For anyone who wants to read first hand their...ambitions.

edited 2nd Jul '14 1:39:09 AM by FFShinra

Exactly how broke is the Pakistani government? Broke enough to consider selling some of their nuclear fuel reserves to shady people?

India to Provide 'Military Training' to Arunachal Pradesh Residents.

The first step up an escalation ladder?

Broke enough that the IMF breaks its own conditions to keep the foreign reserves above $10 billion and otherwise keeping the government happy/stable enough not to resort to nuke/fuel selling. It's part of what I'm referring to when I say Pakistan plays the "Too Big To Fail" card. Broke enough that the Pakistan Army takes side jobs as mercenaries, alongside fertilizer, cement, bread, oil...

&If this was still the Congress running the show, I'd say this was just the usual dance starting over again. With Modi though...hmm.

edited 2nd Jul '14 1:58:51 PM by FFShinra

If I remember correctly, a lot of Pakistanis work in the militaries of the Gulf States.

That's not particularly uncommon in nations where the military holds a high degree of political autonomy and has a tradition of government. The Chinese with Chopper Support had a very extensive business empire up until the early 2000s, vestiges of which still remain - not least because of the formal overlap between the PLA and the CPC^note In fact, the PLA does not actually swear allegiance to the state but the party.. The Indonesians with Infantry are supposed to have given theirs up but haven't. The Egyptians too. Burma, Thailand, even countries one might expect more professionalism from, like Bangladesh and Vietnam, all have extensive formal links between military and commerce.

The North Koreans with Nodongs are possibly the most outstanding example, but that's a special case.

edited 2nd Jul '14 2:27:26 PM by Achaemenid

Yep. That and private security are where they make up most of their PMC contracts.

I'm aware. I think they got the idea from China and Egypt, actually. At the moment, the Pakistan Army only uses it to handle pension, but there have been mutterings from the pakistan military forums that it's not enough.

I know you're aware, but I find it interesting and hopefully it might inform others on the thread.

I suppose the Pakistani military's problem is Kashmir. Their nuclear arsenal would be sufficient to protect them from India otherwise - but as long as they even nominally have to defend/reclaim Kashmir from Delhi, then they need to try and keep up with the Indians in the conventional sphere, with all the costs that entails. Something they have not, historically, been all that brilliant at.

edited 2nd Jul '14 4:01:32 PM by Achaemenid

Britain extends India a one-billion pound credit line.

Please, buy our shit!