Lost in Space
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Well, the problem is that any solution enacted now would not just have to overcome the existing slump but also the years of austerity that were undertaken in response to the slump. There would also have to be a commitment to fiscal support for the ailing nations until they stabilize.
Sticky down, not sticky up.
edited 18th May '12 10:01:54 AM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Hmmm... even in the short run, huh...
I just wish there had been a generalised wising up about the austerity much sooner. It's not like there weren't warnings.
Lost in Space
Krugman notes
the IMF's projections for the effect of austerity programs on Greek debt ratios and employment, and observes that the current situation is much worse than the projections. I can't imagine why the Greek people are upset.
edited 18th May '12 12:05:37 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
V
@ Fighteer:
Of any sort. If they wanted to put up a "Firewall" to protect the Eurozone from Greece, they should have done so already. They haven't started yet.
Reminds me:
Merkel 'suggests Greek referendum on euro membership'
"However, it is clear that the matter is beyond the competence of the caretaker government," the statement went on. But a spokeswoman in Berlin said: "The information reported that the chancellor had suggested a referendum to the Greek President Karolos Papoulias is wrong."
The caretaker government was sworn in this week after elections failed to produce a viable coalition to run the country.New elections have been scheduled for 17 June.
The vote could result in a government that would refuse to implement the austerity measures that Greece's last remaining international creditors are insisting on. Speculation is increasing that Greece may have to leave the eurozone.
Meeting in Washington just before news broke of the German proposal, the US and French leaders said Greece should stay. "We have the same conviction that Greece must remain in the eurozone," France's new President, Francois Hollande, said. President Barack Obama said the situation in the eurozone was of great importance to the people of Europe and the whole world.
Conviction
He said he looked forward to "fruitful" discussions with other G8 leaders, with a strong focus on economic growth.
Francois Hollande and Barack Obama have met for the first time at the White House. Mr Hollande, who was elected president on 6 May, is also to have talks with British Prime Minister David Cameron. Mr Cameron said that Greece must decide if it wants to remain in the euro.
"We need decisive action from eurozone countries in terms of strengthening eurozone banks, in terms of a strong eurozone firewall and decisive action over Greece. That has to be done."
"Clearly," he said, "the Greeks have to make their minds up, they have to make their decision."
Earlier, European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said he European Central Bank and the European Commission are working on emergency scenarios in case Greece had to leave the single currency.
Several hours later, fellow commissioner Olli Rehn issued a statement saying that he is responsible for financial and economic affairs and relations with the ECB.
"We are not working on the scenario of a Greek exit," he said.
That however still doesn't rule out the possibility of contingency planning, says the BBC's Matthew Price in Brussels.
edited 18th May '12 2:28:32 PM by Greenmantle
Keep Rolling On
The European crisis explained in 11 seconds.
Uh. Um. She's got no excuse. She grew up with the damned Wall there, for heaven's sake!
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Still no excuse: basic economics. To be honest, I couldn't hear her all that well. I rarely can. Merkel does a wonderful line in mumbles and vocal blurs.
edited 28th May '12 11:54:37 PM by Euodiachloris
1.) The subtitles in the end are just plain wrong. She is basically saying "So many are coming from Russia?"
2.) And why is she saying that? That video is from a school in Berlin, where the pupils marked their home town on the map. The statement implies she didn't really look at the map, but was just pointing at the place with the most markers.
An absolute disgrace? Well, yes. But the subtitles are just plain wrong.
More like giant cherries
really, the more such horror stories come the more even drastic steps like dissolving the Euro would be justified, no? Better an end in horror than horror without end.
A Euro breakup is the worst case scenario for everyone. If you think the current situation is bad, you haven't seen anything yet. At the moment, I can't imagine anything that would make it a good idea.
Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
House Lewis: Sanity is Relative
Krugman on Newsnight, talking to Jeremy Paxman and a Conservative MP and a venture capitalist. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18281669
The way Krugman - a Nobel Laureate - is treated is shocking. Fuck austerity. Fuck it hard.
My name is Addy. Please call me that instead of my username.
Agreed. But, note: it's not Paxo giving him a hard time. He usually comes down hard on fluff for guff's sake. Interesting: I'm not sure who the fairly hands-off, rope doling was specifically for, this time. I suspect Andrea Leadsom?
Lost in Space
The situation is frankly absurd. The amount of political capital being thrown at promoting austerity is ... astonishing. And it's not even about austerity, in the end.
Nemesis
And on a Europe-wide level, the desire to punish the "bad" nations.
Which is not saying that Greece does not need to fix some pretty severe problems in its system. The true cause of Greek ruin, though, is bankers outside of Greece inexplicably deciding that suddenly, because Greece joined the Eurozone, Greek debt was suddenly as safe as German debt.
And this is what's called believing what's advantageous for one's short-term profits. The history of financial institutions is full of people making end-runs around risk management in pursuit of short-term profit.
A brighter future for a darker age.
V
...and remember, the opposition — in this case Labour — believe in austerity too, just to a slightly lesser degree. All the major three parties believe in austerity — any alternatives might as well not exist.
Although the Government has tried to raise taxes on some ill-advised areas* and has had to reverse them over the last week.
Which ties in with Germany's PTSD when it comes to inflation.
edited 1st Jun '12 7:04:21 AM by Greenmantle
Keep Rolling On
Lost in Space
And some of that Greek debt runup was deliberately malicious, as some companies — *cough* Goldman Sachs — were betting against the very loans they encouraged the Greek government to enter into.
Why that sort of behavior isn't criminal is something I cannot fathom. No institution should be permitted to short or engage in derivatives trading on its own financial instruments.
edited 1st Jun '12 7:04:35 AM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Nemesis
There is a theory out there that the whole financial crisis is a Goldman Sachs game to ruin their competitors and seal their grip on power. It's somewhat persuasive, though I don't think it's the whole story by any means and I don't think even Goldman Sachs has that level of power, but were rather opportunistic.
A brighter future for a darker age.
V
Even if they did have a Plan, they've lost control of their Evil Plan at several points, most notably in 2007. If you follow the theory, then Goldman Sachs don't have as much power as they think they have...
Keep Rolling On
Lost in Space
Which is, by itself, evidence that letting financiers run things is a recipe for disaster.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
V
Corrected.
Keep Rolling On
scratching at .8, just hopin'
No, most humans do not have a financial disincentive against learning from their economic mistakes.
Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
V
But Humans Are Greedy, and you can't just Legislate Greed out of existence. The root cause may just be a failing in Human Nature, and that will be a very hard problem to solve.
edited 1st Jun '12 7:39:48 AM by Greenmantle
Keep Rolling On
scratching at .8, just hopin'
You can't, but you don't have to give it the steering wheel either.
Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
Flying Dutchman
Yes, you do. Unless you happen to be immortal and can always safeguard whatever perfect—or perhaps merely sustainable—system you create, inevitably a new, stupider, less-informed, and foolhardy generation will take over and destroy it in some manner or another through their own greed, ignorance, and downright idiocy.
See: 1930s-60s America versus 1970s-2010s America.
"Can ye fathom the ocean, dark and deep, where the mighty waves and the grandeur sweep?"
scratching at .8, just hopin'
Well, true, but that doesn't mean we should let them have the steering wheel without a fight, nor forget to take it from them every time they get their hands on it.
I'm aware of human nature, thank you, I just don't think it's safe to just accept human nature in these circumstances.
Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
How would they meet a higher inflation target anyway? Here I assumed prices were sticky.