The Arab Spring

The Guardian is reporting that Ataq, capital of Shabwah province in the south, is now under the control of the Hirak, who took the town without a fight.

There are also MASSIVE protests going on in all major cities, both for and against Houthi rule.

A Houthi spokesman and member of their politburo has also resigned, fearing that the movement is moving away from its anti-corruption goals.

edited 24th Jan '15 8:19:51 AM by FFShinra

dafuq is that from, quag?

Antichrist (2009)

edited 24th Jan '15 8:34:06 AM by carbon-mantis

In addition to the four southern provinces that have declared they would no longer listen to Sana'a, Marib has also informed local military and police to only heed the provincial governor.

Interestingly, Taiz hasn't declared the same, but de facto does so in practice.

Also that clip is gonna give me nightmares, Quag.

Be glad I didn't share the rest of the movie.

But yeah, that clip sums up my thoughts on the current situation.

Understandable.

More news:

Hirak forces have taken a few checkpoints and strategic locations in Aden, including its naval base. Forces loyal to Hadi have taken over the airport and seaport. Unknown yet if the two are cooperating or at odds with each other, but we'll know that soon enough if the latter...

I bet that's a fairly substantial Naval Base — Aden was an important location for The British Empire.

Indeed it was and is. Wikipedia isn't much to go on, but according to them, its the only one for the whole Yemeni Navy. Looking at google maps of the other major ports (Hodeida and Mukalla), there seems to be a few patrol boats there, but nothing compared to the various ships at Aden.

EDIT-

Vice News is reporting that Hadhramaut Governorate has also declared they won't listen to Sana'a. Just Mahra and Taiz left now....

edited 24th Jan '15 10:36:54 AM by FFShinra

UN involvement a way forward now?

Well Jamal Benomar, the UN's representative in Yemen, was the one who midwifed the first deal between the Houthis and Hadi, so I question how he'd handle (or be allowed to handle, as the case may be) this situation in any way thats meaningful. Both they and the GCC, under pressure from the US, were rather haphazard and neglectful of the situation in Yemen before the Houthis forced them to pay attention. If the US is ready to not try to maintain an already-extinct status quo, then I'd be interested to see how the UN handles things.

So I guess the short answer is no, though it won't mean they won't try to do so, and the more latitude they're allowed, it might change their track record here for the better.

US goal will be to keep the ghost of the status quo alive long enough to forge a new one that assures AQAP containment. That's all most folks outside of the peninsula really care about (though Eritrea has an outstanding border dispute with Yemen, iirc, that they may want to cash in on now that the Yemenis are too involved to push back)

This is true, but the only way to achieving that goal would be to allow for partition. The status quo would be trying to keep the Republic together, which is feeding recruits to AQAP.

Also, anyone proficient with editing those maps on wikipedia? It's horrendously out of date and my attempts to do so have been...bad.

edited 24th Jan '15 5:24:26 PM by FFShinra

Parliament delayed again in determining if they accepted Hadi's resignation or not. Lack of quorum being the reason given.

Also, in Aden, government and Hirak forces got into a shoot out, one that didn't end until Houthi loyalists intervened. One person died.

Da'esh forces have retreated from Kobani, now back under the Kurds.

Hadi's Chief of Staff, Ahmed Awad Bin Mubarak, whose kidnapping started the current phase of the crisis in Yemen, has been released by the Houthis.

In other news, the International Crisis Group figures Saleh may be ready to use the current circumstances to begin his play for power, breaking his alliance with the Houthis.

EDIT-

Oh, and the Houthi leader, Abdulmalik al-Houthi, has made another speech, calling for a peaceful transition. He was very conciliatory it seems.

edited 27th Jan '15 1:21:23 PM by FFShinra

Asharq Al Awsat is reporting that Hirak and Houthi forces are clashing in Aden.

I'm not inclined to believe it though, given that there is a lot of cities between the highlands and Aden not friendly enough to the Houthi to allow them unfettered access all the way to the south and not enough (if any) local Zaidis to recruit in the city itself. Given that the military governor of Aden province is the one relaying this information, I'd consider it propaganda to make the Houthis seem more dangerous or widespread than they actually are.

The Obama administration has privately slashed funding for the Syrian rebels fighting against Assad and ISIS, and according to U.S. officials, the primary reason is that the rebels are not performing to expected standards.

-_-

In Yemen, AP is reporting that Houthi rebels have seized the Republican Guard base to the south of the capital, which was also the counterterrorism school for the Yemeni military.

What is more interesting though is that the base was supposedly loyal to Saleh. If true, it might mean the alliance is over or Saleh abandoned the base so the Houthis could take it. Either way, Houthi control of the north continues to solidify, even with the protests.

Yeah, if someone is not performing to expectactions, the best way to improve their performance is to reduce their funding. That's work.

On the other hand, this seems weirdly similar to Federal government's approach toward failing schools.

That said, I also saw this in the same article:

"And these sources dispute suggestions there’s an overall decrease in CIA subsidies, saying they are not giving up on the Syrian rebels—even though the Syrian rebels in the north of the country in the vicinity of the Turkish border increasingly believe this to be true. (Those in the south, near the Jordanian border and Damascus, may fare better.)"

That's interesting, if true.

If not for the anemic nature of American support, I might agree or at least understand that, but I have to scoff at the US saying the rebels of Syria aren't performing when the circumstances as to why are being ignored. Bloody Kiev gets better support than they did.

Which part is interesting about the rebels? The ones in the south faring better or the rebels believing help is already reduced and its not?

Some news from Yemen, Hadi and his supporters agreed in principle to a national dialogue...provided it takes place in Taiz, the stronghold and last major city under the internationally-recognized government's control. Hadi also said he'd only recind his resignation if the Houthis left Sana'a. Seems more and more obvious Hadi resigned not only of his own recognisance, but with the intent of pushing back against the Houthis.

As such, if the Houthis take him up on his offer, coupled with the new street cred Hadi had otherwise lacked earlier, He'd have pulled one hell of a gambit on Saleh. If they don't but are unable to bring order to the North, they lose their street cred and go back into the mountains.

Of course, if they call his bluff and manage to rule fine, he's up shit creek because the protesters are almost as mad at him as they are at the Houthis and AQAP.

edited 31st Jan '15 10:15:56 PM by FFShinra

Some good news, then. They might pull out of this yet...

The part where there is some sort of implied difference between the rebels in the north vs. those in the south.

I have to concur regarding the anemic nature of US support. Again weirdly reminiscent of US education policy.

Houthis have given a three day ultimatum to the other parties to form a government or they will take over. They've also demanded induction of the milita into the police and army as a prerequisite.

They certainly seem to be calling Hadi out...