The Arab Spring

If he dies, the government loses what little support it has left. Less deaths because military minds are usually better than dictators at knowing when they've lost, so if the military took over, they probably wouldn't try to win a civil war.

Opinions on what will happen in Libya after the regime is overthrown? 1) A functioning democracy 2) A conservative Islamist theocracy 3) Utter chaos, basically a failed state 4) Something else?

What little analysis I can find, from the Globe and Mail Quote from the article: “Entirely unclear is what glue will hold together this largely decentralized country, in which nationalist identification is low, and tribal and clan affinity paramount. Unlike in neighbouring Egypt, the military lacks the cohesion or unity needed to hold together the country.”

From CNN: Opposition to Gadhafi is hampered by the fact that Libya's sense of national identity is "very weak,"

From the Miami Herald A somewhat surreal look behind the scenes in Eastern Libya.

edited 22nd Feb '11 5:51:02 PM by DeMarquis

Well, I have heard several rumors from a friend online who is involved in Egypt.

Apparently, now this is all rumors, there are a lot of mercenary groups popping up outta the wazoo. According to one person, a group called The Ten Gunmen, named for their leadership, has moved into Libya. This is a group that boasts they can kill 300 protesters a day.

According to another popular rumor, Iran is going to move into Egypt for sheer territorial gain.

What might result from these scenarios.

The most likely scenario would be splitting into Eastern and Western Libya. Eastern will probably prosper more because they have the oil reserves.

The mercenary thing is probably true; while that one group is just boasting, there's ample evidence to suggest that the government is hiring African mercenaries to kill the protestors. And that's terrible.

The second one? Western intervention is pretty much the only option.

edited 22nd Feb '11 6:10:41 PM by OurGLORIOUSLeader

Who has the better military, Egypt or Iran?

Somehow I think it's Egypt, but it certainly would be pretty close.

BUT I really doubt Western nations would let Iran do that. Even if they didn't want to help Egypt, they hate Iran enough to deliberately cockblock them.

Not to mention if Iran goes and does anything but suppress its own protests right now, they might take Egypt but there's not going to be anywhere to return to.

Wouldn't Khamenei/Ahmadinejad intervening in Egypt basically lose his regime a ton of credibility of "not being like the United States fucking with politics elsewhere"?

Egypt and Iran do not share a border, they are hundreds of miles apart. Iran doesn't possess close to the marine capacity they would need to effectively intervene anywhere in Northern Africa, let alone a well defended country like Egypt.

I wonder how culturally/historically close Egypt is to Eastern Libya. Maybe it won't be a Balkanization at all and instead the surrounding powers just swallow Libya whole. After all, doesn't Tripoli have a close history with Tunisia?

^ Well, both Egypt and Libya were under control of the Ottoman Empire for a long period of time.

It'd be interesting to see if there exists a good chart of the occurrence/dispersal of the various ethnic groups in these countries. So far I've found this◊, but it's not exactly up-to-date. From what I've seen, Egypt seems fairly stable in that aspect, but I'm wondering if the same holds true for Libya.

I would like to see Iran try, honestly. In the long run, that would be so helpful. But, unfortunately, the Iranian government and military aren't that dumb.

One problem in Iran is the use of regime-backing paramilitary forces to deal with the protesters—the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militias.

If the actual military itself—which if I recall correctly was actually pretty neutral during the 2009 post-election protests—were to step in and defend the protesters and/or fight the RG or Basiji, then the protesters would have a far greater chance of toppling the government.

Alternatively, if the resistance movement becomes armed. Though this would likely require a very sympathetic populace and lots of guerilla operations.

Iran isn't going for Egypt, and Egypt would most likely win if they did as they would have to come by sea.

The Egyptian military is better equipped and better trained, but they obviously have tons of shit on their plate at the moment without Iran being involved. But as I said, they aren't.

Iran would rather be using spies instead anyway.

It'd be interesting to see if there exists a good chart of the occurrence/dispersal of the various ethnic groups in these countries. carbon-mantis

German news portal Spiegel Online has current charts for Libya: http://www.spiegel.de/flash/flash-25335.html - in German, of course, but the tribal/ethnic distribution (just click on 'Stämme') should be understandable nonetheless. The chart's nearly the same as in the English 'pedia. (Quick translations: Übersicht - overview, Stämme - tribes, Ölfelder - oil fields, Straßen - streets, unbewohnt - uninhabited) Don't let the color scare you, they're not communist. (Slightly liberal, but all things considered, one of the if not the best online news portal in Germany.)

In related news, our foreign and defense ministeries are planning a second set of flights to evacuate the remaining ~250 Germans in Libya.

@Barkey: Last news from Kuwait (19th) is small-scale protests of about 300 stateless arabic workers demanding naturalization. Else, my sources tell me it's rather quiet for the moment.

edited 23rd Feb '11 2:34:52 AM by kurushio

While I'm appalled at the bloodshed currently happening in Libya I'm very pleased that al-Gaddafi seems to be finished.

I also hope that cunt al-Megrahi somehow gets his in the chaos. Releasing that fucker was a mistake.

No it fucking wasn't. It's pure luck he survived this long, and I and most other Scots (bear in mind I come from Lockerbie's doorstep) believe he was entirely innocent. The evidence was questionable if not outright falsified, and the testimony of witnesses known to be unreliable was accepted.

But that's offtopic.

News from Saudi Arabia:

1243: More on those economic measures that Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has announced. Billions of dollars are to be put into a development fund that will help Saudis purchase homes, start businesses and get married, state TV reports. Is King Abdullah, just returned from three months overseas for surgery, nervously eyeing events in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and in his own neighbour, Bahrain?

Also, those two fighter pilots who defected to Malta a few days ago are still being interrogated, but the BBC are far from convinced they'll get the asylum they're asking for due to Malta's ties to Libya. Malta is close enough to Britain to almost be a principality, so I'm hoping that we can exert some pressure if they're denied it.

Malta is just waiting to see which way the wind blows. You can count on those pilots being "interrogated" until the situation stabilizes in Libya, and then they will be returned home.

Meanwhile, I am betting on 'ol Mumar ending up hanging from a lamppost fairly shortly, unless he gets smart and leaves the country. The longer he hangs on, the more likely the UN will impose a no-fly on him, and then he's screwed.

For some reason, Google translate will only translate the banner headers on that Der Speigal map-page, not the map itself. Anyone know a better translation service?

Here is an analysis of the tribal situation in Libya: http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110223000437

If the tribal leaders are taking over, then anarchy and war-lordism is the immediate danger after Ghaddafi leaves. Once he's gone, the danger is that they will begin to turn on each other. We could end up with another failed state on our hands.

Re ol' Mumar: Dig a tunnel. Consult some Paletinians and Egyptians about it if you need help.

There were once rumors of an underground aquaduct in the southern Sahara/northern Magreb area, but those are probably fictional.

The Battle for Libya appears to be reaching it's tertiary stages: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12556005

No updates on the BBC site for over an hour now - that's unusual! the result of a technical glitch which is now fixed.

Iran's leadership seeks an award for "best comedic use of irony ever": 1507 Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has had his say on the Libyan uprising, telling state TV: "It is unimaginable that there is someone who is able to kill and bombard his own people. This is very grotesque."

edited 23rd Feb '11 8:32:05 AM by CaissasDeathAngel

Oh, unintentional irony, how I love thee...

Also...

edited 23rd Feb '11 9:02:10 AM by TheGinkei

Still, Gaddafi took it one step further. Even Evil Has Standards.

As long as one person believes Ahmadinejads attempts to pose as the good guy its been worth the statement for him.

edited 23rd Feb '11 9:13:04 AM by GameChainsaw