The Arab Spring

Suez canal is for everyone. Israel can whine about it all they like, but that's the simple fact of the matter.

Happiness is zero-gee with a sinus cold.

@ Gendo Ikari: I thought you had your Xanatos Gambits planned out for all of this shit.

@ Tropers.Gendo Ikari: Are there protests in Italy against Berlusconi himself, not just over Libya?

Oh great, I didn't read at first that he has also accused USA and Italy of having given weapons to protesters. Come on Silvio, say something.

(I think I ninja'd you.)

I mean, there's already been stuff in Albania, but if there are protests against Berlusconi in Italy, that would be the first western European country to see anti-government unrest.

Or maybe second; I hear Portugal is seeing some action.

Sorry, didn't see newer posts (and I'm still inexperienced with using these forums).

So far I haven't heard of specific protests against Berlusconi related to the situation in Lybia, here. However, consider that he has direct or indirect control on many media outlets so that could have gone unknown. After all, the recent women's protest against him was demoted to second-string in most news programs.

I'm also reading now an excerpt from a speech Berlusconi gave around Christmas, in which he bragged about his "true friendship" with Ben Ali, Mubarak and Ghadafi. Apparently being true friends with Berlusconi brings bad luck :P

Algeria has stopped its 19 year long "state of emergency" and Bahrain has released some political prisoners. Overtures to calm people down, probably, but that doesn't make it a bad idea.

Libya has no proper civil society, no big government outside of the regime, no military council, no Duma. Gaddaffi said that he can't resign because he's not the president (he's Only The First Citizen) and there's no position for him to leave and he's kind of right. He doesn't have a job, he had a direct line of force. There has to be a replacement and at the moment there isn't one and either a full blown civil war blows up against him or his powerbase collapses quickly and some people might a very smart move at just the right time or they make a dumb move and there's a civil war anyway.

I wonder what's happening with Barkey. Britain is sending over a plane an a navy warship as backup.

edited 22nd Feb '11 1:22:20 PM by SomeSortOfTroper

Sorry for my last link. I wasn't thinking when I posted the link. I should have included a warning.

Gaddaffi seems to have ordered his security personel to start destroying oil facilities.

Anyone else reminded of Saudi Arabia in World War Z?

EDIT: The Times link doesn't appear to be working. I've replaced it with another source.

edited 22nd Feb '11 1:23:12 PM by Pentadragon

Busted link.

But as someone else mentioned - if you're using scorched earth policies on your own stuff, you're either the USSR or 'really screwed'. Reminds me of the jilted lover who says "if I can't have it/her, you can't either" and starts trashing stuff.

edited 22nd Feb '11 1:20:24 PM by pvtnum11

Happiness is zero-gee with a sinus cold.

It's actually number 6 on the list of "Situations where you can mention Hitler without Godwinning the thread": if a crazed dictator whose empire is falling around him, holds himself in a bunker and starts to bomb his own people.

News flash as i type -Sabratha, west of Tripoli: large numbers of army forces have amassed there after protestors smashed some government buildings. No other news on what they are doing.

edited 22nd Feb '11 1:26:00 PM by SomeSortOfTroper

There's been talk for a few hours now of protests tonight. It's now half 11 there, so must be dark. If it's going to happen, I imagine it will be soon.

The potential succession in Libya is really confused. Gaddafi has done such a job of suppressing all opposition and any leadership in the country besides himself that there's no clear new leader. At least with Egypt it was obviously going to be the army (likely, and the end result) or another member of Mubarak's posse (less likely, but his own preferred choice) taking charge. In Libya it seems civil war may be the only option.

From the BBC I'm getting the impression that much of the east of the country is already pretty much considering itself no longer a part of Libya as it currently stands. They fear Gaddafi will bomb the shit out of it, but the interior minister has joined the protesters so his powerbase is falling apart rapidly.

My name is Addy. Please call me that instead of my username.

Gaddafi seems to have given up on the east and is just focusing on Tripoli. Yes, he's a moron, but he's a clever moron. He knows that staying in Tripoli will both give pro-Gaddafi protestors (if there are any) a reason to fight, it will emanate an air of power, and he's not going to be able to seek solace in any Western country anytime soon. Wasn't there recently a big uproar over him being allowed to go to New York City a few months ago?

And since most of my stuff is redundant, here's a nice, clickable reference map for the protests.

He swore in his speech he'd die a martyr. One could argue that that's carte blanche for any would-be assassin to just go ahead and do the job...

Seriously though, his credibility is ruined, so if the revolution kills him then he's just another deposed dictator of this era, previously thought invulnerable but dying amid the shattered glass of that visage.

My name is Addy. Please call me that instead of my username.

^^ I think that map is a little outdated, it looks like a revolution in Libya. If that succeeds there, it might give a boost to the other protests, like Iran.

edited 22nd Feb '11 2:01:55 PM by SatanicHamster

Blame Wikipedia.

That all depends on who, if anybody, is going to take his place, whether that's a result of the government winning or losing this revolution.

What's going on in Kuwait? Anyone know?

It's on that map as "Major Protests" but I haven't heard much, and I like the Kuwaiti Govt.

Were you there in '91?

"Sweets are good. Sweets are justice."

Off-topic here, but do we in fact have a list of exceptions to Godwin's Law?

And I think it's fair to say by this point that the protestors have taken Egypt. Short of something really odd (invasion by Israel, perhaps) Egypt's resolved its problems.

edited 22nd Feb '11 2:14:48 PM by Ultrayellow

Except for 4/1/2011. That day lingers in my memory like...metaphor here...I should go.

Cameron (no, not James; that would be too cool to ever happen) said to the BBC in Cairo that he believes, albeit with minor reservations, the claims of the Egyptian interim (military) government; namely, that Egypt will become a democracy and that they'll make sure they get a new constitution and new elections (parliamentary as well as presidential) soon.

I saw the interview in the BBC live broadcast about the Middle East protests last night and I'm confident enough that I got all his major points about Libya that I can't be bothered to find a link.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

I don't think there were any major protests there, which means Wikipedia is wrong (big shock), but I find it notable that Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah  ^*

has already pledged free food rations and $4000 to everybody, so Kuwait must be in some pretty bad financial trouble.

Israel may have done some stupid things, but they're not that stupid. I assume they'll try to work out a new peace deal or something like that.

... How old do you think I am? I was like 6 or 7 years old when Desert Storm took place. -_-

Yeah, I was there, 1337th leet child commando company, A Platoon.

^

Damn, that's really nice of him.

edited 22nd Feb '11 2:27:37 PM by Barkey

Barkey is like 45 people; those pics are actually of his son.

You might be forty? Nah, improbable. What I mean to ask is, do you have any personal invetment in believing that the USA did the right thing in Desert Storm and that the resulting regime is respectable?

"Sweets are good. Sweets are justice."

Oh, I don't really have an opinion on Desert Storm. I guess it was the right thing to do, Saddam was an obvious douchebag and the aggressor in the conflict, and we had foreign opinion and support for our action there. All I really know about the operation is that my uncle was there as an Army Artillery operator and blew up a bunch of the shit on that highway when the Iraqi's were retreating.

But as to how things are now, Kuwait is the end of the line before you go to Iraq or Afghanistan, where they check to see if you are physically and mentally fit for your deployment, and the last check they do on you for contraband. The locals were really nice people, and seemed happy. They didn't bear any similarity to any Afghanis I met. They were modern folks who bathed, worked hard, and were very friendly.

Plus, they didn't confiscate my porn.

Yeah, that babyfaced dude on the wrong side of 20 you keep seeing in pictures I post? Totally my son.

edited 22nd Feb '11 2:37:14 PM by Barkey

I believe the protests in Kuwait are on a similar line as for Bahrain: the Sunni elite have been getting more and more worried about Shi'ites growing in influence and uprising against them and so they've been acting oppressively against Shi'ite's and thus been giving them reasons to uprise against them. However they are both constitutional monarchies who have many ways to acquiesce and calm things down.

Well, you know what they say:

Teach a man to search for porn, and you feed him for... like, I dunno, a year or so.

But teach a man to make porn and... wait, no that's not... [[Metaphorgotten GODAMMIT

edited 22nd Feb '11 2:41:38 PM by OurGLORIOUSLeader