The Arab Spring

Thats probably why Turkey is keeping quiet until they can find the pilots/investigate what happened.

As for Sudan, without the South and with Darfur about to take part in a referrendum regarding their status within Sudan in the near future, Is there really anything left outside of Khartoum and Port Sudan? If not, then this might be easier than most if Bashir doesn't take the hint....

This is a fascinating behind the scenes look at how the Syrian Rebel forces are arming themselves. "...For the regime, or at least the duplicitous members of it, supplying the enemy is a big business. Government officers also sell Kalashnikov bullets, which typically sold for less than 40 cents before the uprising, for about $4 each..."

Assad is so screwed...

It's still not a good move to shoot down a plane belonging to the strongest military in the region. Especially when said military openly aids the rebels and is a NATO member.

My, my... these scenes certainly look familiar!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126222358422557.html

It's coming back, back to Where It All Began.

A fitting Book Ends for SCAF, if this does topple them.

The liberals and Muslim Brotherhood have re-formed their coalition?

The military may be in trouble. (Assuming that they don't simply bring machine guns to Tahrir Square, which the Muslim Brotherhood don't have a good answer to.)

This is rich... http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/saudi-arabia-syria-rebel-army

Saudi Arabia may fund the Syrian rebels. So one oppressive regime helping to take down another.

^^ Until it collapses again. Outside of the MB there really isn't all that much of anything that would count as a significant anti-SCAF/Mubarrak regime organization.

Given how MB jumped on the bandwagon and then dumped the others when they were no longer convenient, I'm not holding my breath on such a coalition lasting for longer than MB thinks is absolutely necessary.

Did they announce the Egyptian election results yet?

No, it's supposed to be announced on Sunday:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/23/world/africa/egypt-politics/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

(Avoid the comments section unless you want your brain to melt from stupid. It's filled with Islamophobic and Mubarakist scum.)

NATO is not obligated to assist Turkey if Turkey is the aggressor.

The protests in Tahrir mostly seem to be MB, not Secular. The MB isnt going to do anything too extreme until they find out if their boy won or lost.

Turkey doesn't really need NATO's assistance for something like this.

Trust me, they are even less eager than we are to get entangled in the growing f**ked up morass that Syria is becoming. They basically have nothing to gain by going in there. They last thing they want is to take sides in the Shiite vs. Sunni civil war that this thing is turning into.

Well it's not strictly true that they don't have anything to gain from Syria, as Assad is an ally of Iran and, these days, most definitely not a friend to Turkey. So if Turkey could ensure a more friendly government in Syria, they would have it much easier in terms of national security. Turkey would also grow as a regional power if Iran's influence was weakened through to loss of a valuable ally.

But all of that is of course far too little to justify, even in terms of cold calculation and power games, the price of war.

BBC: Turkey says the downed jet may have crossed the Syrian border by accident, which would mean that Syria did no wrong in shooting the jet down.

Turkey has much less problem with Iran than the Arab World and the rest of the West do. Really, the only justification they would have for war is not liking Assad.

I do wonder though if Turkish involvement with the rebels is keeping the Kurdish minority loyal to Assad or not...

They're not going to launch an all out war, but they might step up their aid of the rebels significantly.

[1]

Hm...Turkey might react anyway.

Well, Syria just lost one of their justifications for shooting down the plane, since it was apparently in international airspace when it went down:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201262465711936449.html

It was also 13 miles from the coast, meaning it presumably crashed into the sea. In that regard, I have little hopes for the pilots being alive.

Turkey calls a NATO meeting under Article 4, which allows for consultations if a member nation feels their security is threatened. So their reaction is diplomacy rather than military force. Syria are also insisting the plane was in their own airspace. So they might have apparently lost the justification, but they're still trying it. That could end badly if they're proven wrong.

edited 24th Jun '12 5:30:18 AM by CaissasDeathAngel

What makes you so sure that the pilots didn't eject before it crashed? Assuming that the missile(s) didn't destroy the cockpit outright, I find it unlikely that they were at too low of an altitude to safely eject from their plane.

^ Ejecting and surviving the ejection (not necessarily mutually inclusive) are one thing. Surviving afterward long enough to be rescued from the drink is another issue entirely, especially if the flight crew doesn't have anything other than their individual emergency flotation devices to keep them up. Even summer in the Med can cause problems for people if they're in it long enough.

(Not sure if the older F-4s that the Turks fly have zero-zero ejection seats*

The Muslim Brotherhood have won the Egyptian presidential election. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-18571580

Falling in the water is bad. Very bad. Even in the Med.

Oh, shit.

... What, did you want the Mubarak regime guy to win?

Any political organisation that puts a religion in its name is Bad News.

The Egyptians will suffer under these people.

As opposed to the three decades they suffered under Mubarak? Are you seriously suggesting undoing everything that happened over the last year is the better outcome?