The Arab Spring

Of that I have no idea. BBC is merely reporting that the rebels are closing in on them.

But most likely.

Frontline has recently released a nice documentary about Daesh as a whole.

Syrian rebels said they captured the village of Dabiq from Islamic State on Sunday, forcing the jihadist group from a stronghold where it had promised to fight a final, apocalyptic battle with the West.

Turkish operations in Syria to continue after Dabiq liberated: Erdogan's spokesman.

Iraqi army drops leaflets over Mosul in preparation for offensive:

edited 16th Oct '16 11:39:08 AM by Quag15

Prime Minister Haider al Abadi has announced the official start of the Battle of Mosul.

Here we go...

An Iraqi spokesman is urging residents to stay in their homes if possible.

That presumes a lot of discipline on the part of allied Shi'a militias.

They aren't being allowed into the city. Iraqi Army and Peshmerga only for now.

Russian media and social networks report that ISIS is badly losing its shit over its current losses, with their propaganda trying to rapidly shift the goalposts from building an Islamic Caliphate to organising a campaign of terror.

The EU's Security Commissioner told Die Welt that "the recapture of the city of Mosul, the northern Iraqi stronghold of IS, could lead to dangerous IS fighters returning to Europe". However, Kurdish activists reckon that any Daesh fighters seeking to blend him would be ratted on by other refugees. Well, if there ever were folks that earned it...

At least 900 civilians have fled into Syria from Mosul. They are now at a refugee camp. Evidently Daesh checkpoints are failing...

Yeah, speaking of goalpost-shifting, Amaq Media—IS's official media arm—has been putting out communiques when Dabiq fell, furiously backpedalling and saying that this particular battle of Dabiq wasn't the one in their prophecies.

Apocalypse cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances, please be patient.

Apocalypse Cancelled would make a great Vietnam War film parody.

Portsmouth Sinfonia could make a version of Wagner's Ride of the Valkyries just for that move.

Also. Another reminder why the Saudis are getting their clocks cleansed by the Houthis.

edited 19th Oct '16 3:09:59 PM by AngelusNox

This is why I have my doubts on the Houthis themselves firing on the US Navy. They aren't stupid as far as fighters ago.

When I was reading about operations against piracy in Somalia - back when that topic was relevant, and this reminds me that I should take a look at what's happening there now - I remember reading something about how people on the shore, even with fairly modern equipment, can have some difficulty identifying ships that are within range but not properly visible. My recollection here is very vague, but if I'm on the right track maybe that's the sort of thing that could explain some of the attacks on US ships. Maybe they were mistaken for Saudis or something.

I must say, despite the inevitable civilian casualties, I am very happy that the Mosul operation is finally underway. It's been a very long time coming - I've actually translated some articles by people who went there to write about it several months ago, and even then the feeling among the Iraqi and Kurdish commanders in the region was that they've been wanting to go in for a while.

Apparently progress has been very good in the first couple of days, and I'm happy that there are reports of civilians managing to evacuate. Apparently some ISIS people are fleeing, as well - hopefully they can be identified by any nearby forces capable of capturing or killing them.

Kurdish and Shi'a soldiers are told not to go into the city proper, when the time comes for the rest of the Iraqi forces to go in. I think that's entirely understandable, but I hope this won't be portrayed as a greater sacrifice by - or victory for - the Sunni forces than it will for the Kurds. The Peshmerga have been very reliable and (according to just about everything I've read) civilised in their fight against ISIS, and it would be a shame if their contribution was downplayed in the narrative that will eventually emerge from this.

I expect this mission to succeed - the balance of sheer firepower, numbers, technology, and presumably tactics is so overwhelming - and I think it will be an absolutely massive defeat for ISIS. They'll be essentially out of Iraq by then, and while a large portion of their forces will probably manage to go to Syria and join the ISIS forces there, they will bring with them news of massive casualties, a decisive defeat, a population that hated their occupation regime, and a general sense of an enemy that is superior in so many ways continuing to encircle them and crush them.

They've had more success in Syria than anywhere else, for obvious reasons, but I don't think they have all that long left now. Whether Assad falls or survives, almost nobody wants ISIS now. They've shown their colours, and they will be resisted by everyone they try to control, as long as there's any support for the resistance from outside.

Kurdish forces might go anyway, remember they're not under the control of the Iraqi government, so the Iraqi goverment tleling them not to go in holds little weight compared to the Iraqi goverment ordering the allied militias to not go in.

Everything I've read about this indicates that cooperation and communication between the forces is very good. (There are also lots of Western trainers and other specialists involved in getting the forces ready and actually running the operation, which I assume would naturally create more links in the form of officers who communicate with all of the - for want of a better word - allied forces.)

So my impression, from about 6-10 articles, is that anything that the leaders of the operations are telling the press would be based on a mutually agreed framework of some kind. Ergo, the Kurds would seem to have agreed to this arrangement.

Note that this is just my impression from a bunch of articles interviewing leaders from both the Kurdish and main Iraqi forces, as well as Western experts.

Turkey is shelling Syrian Kurdish militias again.

Are they barring all Shiite soldiers from entering, or just the Shiite irregulars while the Iraqi army is exempt?

I think its just the militia, the Iraqi regulars are still majority Shia (and have been since al-Malaki screwed everyone the moment the US left).

I'm increasingly concerned about the future of Syrian and Iraqi territory under Turkish control. Why? One of the final acts of the Ottoman parliament (before Ataturk reorganized the remnants of the Empire into modern Turkey) was their proposal of their new southern border.

It included Aleppo and Mosul.

Why is that a big deal, that was a hundred years ago right? Well Erdogan has been using said proposal as a justification for keeping their forces at that base in Iraq despite Baghdad's demands to leave....

edited 21st Oct '16 1:28:59 PM by FFShinra

Kind of a "soft" annexation under the guise of keeping the peace, and massively angering the Kurds while they're at it?

I really, really want you to be wrong on this. Doesn't mean that you are. :/

Never let the sun go down on an opportunity for a land grab.

The middle east (sans North Africa)) has always reminded me of a large screw propeller, with the three major civilizations representing one blade...while the center is where all the chaos reigns.

EDIT- http://www.yerelhaberim.net/images/upload/144893_html_m6ad55513[1].jpg

Basically includes Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan.

edited 21st Oct '16 1:35:34 PM by FFShinra

And the centre of that wheel is where it all began....Mesopotamia, specifically Baghdad.

And with flaming fecal matter being thrown in the spinning propeller all the time?