North Korea

South Korean/Japan relationship despise China and NK have always been cold and Japan has some clear issues with more nuclear armed countries being close to it.

Specially with the right wing party of Japan stroking some sore wounds in South Korean history.

Japan's top priority is and should be not South Korean nukes under US oversight but the plainly obvious North Korean nukes. Japan is well aware of why South Korea wants greater defenses and following its example is going to override any notion of deterring it from doing so.

edited 11th Aug '17 8:50:30 AM by Trivialis

The nationalists in Japan, or anywhere really, aren't renown for being sensible.

edited 11th Aug '17 8:51:59 AM by Rationalinsanity

Nukes in Japan are political suicide. Depends on who wants to take the hit.

and i really don't think Japan would every agree with North Korea. as they really just want North Korea not to have any Nukes and also they really don't share that good of a history with North Korea too. and they are allies to south Korea has well

More nukes in the region would likely make everyone unhappy overall. Though to a certain point I can see the South Korean's desire for one as MAD for the Korean Peninsula.

I could see South Korea going the UK/France route and getting a few nuclear armed subs.

I keep wondering if the Guam thing is a feint on NK's part. Make the US focus there so it can hit something a little easier or more accurately....like SK or Japan....

That would a clever plot form North Korea.

I think it is unlikely it is a feint. South Korea still has missile defenses and local US military presence. It wouldn't work very well for Japan either. They have means to protect themselves as well. To top it off pretty much any Aegis equipped US vessel with at least one SM-3 can possibly intercept the long range missiles.

Chances are good it is more blustering and Un may have taken up a favorite past time, trolling Trump.

a pastime shared by many

edited 11th Aug '17 6:47:06 PM by MorningStar1337

so you think North Korea is lying to upset Trump

North Korea, or more accurately the Kim regime, wants to be avoid getting the Iraq/Libya treatment. To that end, they want to threaten the US and its Asian allies just enough to get them to back off. The unpredictable factor here is that you have the least competent and most impulsive man in the Oval Office in living memory.

edited 11th Aug '17 7:50:20 PM by Rationalinsanity

so is that way they threaten everyone and also i guess we will have to wait and see if a theory is right

Yeah, non-great power deterrence taken up to a never before seen level.

I am sure deliberately agitating Trump has crossed many world leaders minds.

Though it is a good point the Kim's MO is dangerous and aggressive brinksmanship.

They've lasted this long with a gun pointed at the ROK's head and the tacit backing of China. Now they've got a bigger gun and they're pointing it at everyone else. Far higher risks, but higher possible rewards.

As I've stated here earlier, I'm not worried about Guam suffering a direct hit, let alone the surrounding FSM and CNMI islands. I'm fairly certain the missile defenses will work. Rather, it's the radioactive fallout contaminating sections of the ocean, and the inevitable hysteria that will follow which is capable of far more damage in the long term. Most of the Marianas relies heavily upon tourism from Asia to thrive, and the lesser-developed island nations still sustain themselves with fishing. Guam? Not so much, in regard to the food. We're pretty Americanized here, and most of our food is imported. We still need tourism badly though.

But what happens if news starts spreading about even the smallest traces of radioactive dust or contaminated water approaching the islands? Well, remember how much panic spread during the Fukushima-Daichi disaster? People started panicking about irradiated fish as far as California (despite it turning out to be nothing more than a false alarm), and that had a big impact on communities that relied upon fishing. It wouldn't take long before some idiot meme posted on Facebook or some other outlet releases a grossly exaggerated claim that "ALL PACIFIC WATER IS NOW CONTAMINATED!!!!1111", and there goes the economy. That'll probably put a serious dent in the annual tourist numbers.

@Lush: There isn't anything fake about how Trump's lack of nuance is making things worse. While it's wholly possible the Norks are just doing the usual saber-rattling with no intention to actually strike, there's also the risk that the upper echelons of their government might've finally be "poisoned" by their own propaganda/ideology and seriously think an outright war is necessary. Don't believe me? How do you think media outfits like Breitbart, the Tea Party, and ultimately Trump came into being? Because folks actually believed the hogwash and acted upon it.

Plus... the U.S. gains literally nothing from invading North Korea. They lack any worthwhile resources, the political situation there would be nightmarish to deal with once we captured Pyongyang, China and Russia are likely to deliberate screw things up to weaken the U.S., the mass exodus of fleeing North Korean refugees would overwhelm both the South and China, and the reconstruction costs would be ASTRONOMICAL (seriously, some parts of that country may as well be in a time capsule from before the 1940s!) I firmly believe that taking the neutral stance and ignoring N.K.'s constant attention-grabbing is the best possible solution.

edited 12th Aug '17 6:59:38 AM by SgtRicko

If North Korea is attempting to scare the US into leaving them alone, then they have a very bad strategy. Thing is, there actually is such a thing as bad publicity in this context.

China mentioned via Global Times that Pyongyang is on its own if they strike at Guam unless the Americans or some other country shot first.

The JASDF has deployed the Patriots to Shimane and Hiroshima with the JMSDF sending out its Aegis cruisers.

Cross Posted from the Military Thread Courtesy of Taira Mai

South Korea will allow deployment of Full THAAD Battery

edited 12th Aug '17 5:27:18 AM by TuefelHundenIV

@Protagonist: On the other hand, North Korea is the last Stalinist regime left standing. That speaks to a certain resilience, if nothing else.

edited 12th Aug '17 6:24:55 AM by CaptainCapsase

Thing is North Korea has survived this long by antagonising US regimes that understand that actions have consequences, with the consequences of even a swift (China sanctioned) first strike on North Korea being to horrible for anyone to want to deal with. The current US regime doesn't totally understand that actions have consequences, they don't really get cause and effect.

You know whats crazy i never knew about Guam until North Korea threaten

Trolling Trump is not useful in this case because unless they actually act on their words, Trump gets to claim victory for scaring Kim into submission.

Also, when I meant attacking someone else, I didn't necessarily mean a missile strike (at least with SK).

But let's see what happens Tuesday. Maybe nothing happens, maybe NK gets annihilated.