I doubt even NK's government really wants to unify with the South, despite all their official propaganda. They know they wouldn't be able to control a region that's multiple times more rich and powerful than they are. They'd also have to continue their seperation policy for fear of all the disruptive knowledge and resources the Southerners would introduce.

Potentially the country could continue to exist in its current form indefinitely, as long as technological progress doesn't make its hermit status untenable. If not, I imagine it would probably be like Castro's Cuba and gradually introduce greater and greater freedoms to combat its citizens using corruption and the black market to get what they want.

Indeed, though I think its also the most likely case. There are no revolutionary movements or opposing sides in North Korea (granted, there's tensons in the military, but they are totally in harmony with the aim of retaining permanent control). And if some calamity strikes, China will grant more aid or the regime will just let millions of people die off, again.

edited 29th Mar '15 3:26:13 AM by betaalpha

That's the best case scenario. It can get a lot worse from there.

The folly of The '90s was that the Clinton administration thought that the Hole In The Flag revolutions would, somehow, spread to North Korea. For the other party the Norks were a sideshow, easily contained by the division in the South.

Well reality overtook them. The Norks stood firm, the Hermit Kingdom that inspired Ceaușescu tyranny outlived him. The 2nd Infantry division shrank to a brigade (but they did get an ADA brigade to help out the ROK AF). And the Norks kept on going nuclear.

The Norks know, know that if anything happens that threatens the state, many party officials will hang for the crimes against the people.

A religious tv channel talked about their aid mission to NK. They never got to the goddless commie memes because they had waaay to many horror stories about the famine there. One pic had 16 year old girls who were less than 4 feet tall. The presenter thought they were 8 year olds. Nope, famine and hunger. The average Nork is several CM smaller than his/her ROK counterpart unless they are one of the well fed members of the Party.

If the state gets wobbly, may backs will be put against the wall.

->"Dear comrades and friends, citizens of the capital of Socialist Romania! First, I wish to extend to you, participants of this great popular meeting, and all residents of the Bucharest municipality, warm revolutionary greetings, and wish you success in all your endeavors. I wish also to thank the instigators and organizers of this great popular demonstration in Bucharest, and I consider it an...what? Wait, no! What? Comrades! Comrades, stay quiet! Comrades?..." —>—Nicolae Ceaușescu's final speech

edited 29th Mar '15 8:07:35 PM by TairaMai

North Korea on Friday endorsed a march by the feminist activist Gloria Steinem across the heavily fortified demilitarized zone (DMZ) that separates it from South Korea.

#nottheonion

edited 3rd Apr '15 7:23:36 PM by Quag15

That's rather interesting. Prompted me to look into the previous DMZ crossings mentioned:

New Zealand motorcyclists ride across DMZ in rare North-South Korea border crossing

I had no luck finding articles about the thirty two Korean Russians who crossed the DMZ by motorcade in 2014 though.

Any gestures towards openness are good ones, though of course for the time being they will remain very heavily stage managed.

I can understand calling on the UN for a proper armistice, but President Obama? I'm fairly certain that the factions who didn't accept the 1953 armistice were the North and South Koreans...

Probably to make the agreement seem super official. Also likely because North Korea's government has framed the war as being against the USA ('the aggressors and puppet masters') more than the South ('our comrades, countrymen and poor deluded victims who the US viciously prevent us from reunifying with').

They don't want an armistice, they want a peace treaty, and seem to be ignoring the fact that that the problem there is the Norks, not the US or UN.

In other news, a new gadget is making it easier for people in the North to see content from the outside world - Moore's Law is making things more difficult for the regime, basically.

We HAD an armistice, the north koreans terminated it a few years back.

The 'war' is the only way that NK stays 'important'.

As long as it goes on and they occasionally act up they get to stay in power and get to get handouts from other countries to not act up.

Regarding the Steinem thing, so does that mean they're going to use her as a minesweeper to clear part of an invasion route?

Another US citizen visiting North Korea has been detained and deported.

Her name is Sandra Suh, and she's been visiting NK for almost 20 years now until the Norks decided to charge her for espionage and attempting to undermine the government via anti-propaganda films and the like. Fortunately it doesn't look like it cost the US govt too much, especially since the NK government didn't want to hold onto her out of fear her advanced age might cause medical complications if detained for an extended time.

Top Norad general: North Korea has a nuclear-capable missile that can hit the US

North Korean watchers seem to be divided on whether it developed good enough missile technology by now. What do you think?

"Can" and "will" are very different things. We know they "could" hit the us, they launched a sat into orbit. How accurate is another thing entirely. Along with whether or not it explodes on the pad.

edited 11th Apr '15 8:28:08 PM by Joesolo

And the other questions: Will they sell the technology to other countries or groups? Will they threaten to nuke places if they don't get a relaxation of sanctions?

Since negotiating with North Korea is impossible, has anyone ever considered the possibility of negotiating with China about their continued support of it?

China views North Korea as valuable in that it ties up US and South Korean forces. Plus if North Korea ever truly goes belly up, the Chinese have to deal with the humanitarian crisis that will follow.

edited 12th Apr '15 12:18:44 AM by Rationalinsanity

China also doesn't want the rest of the world to get to itchy about the North.

Negotiation with North Korea is entirely possible, you just have to remember who you're dealing with. North Korea won't threaten to nuke places for stuff because it will never actually nuke anywhere, the Nork Nukes are never intended as an offensive weapons, they're a defensive one to ensure that no matter what deal the US makes with China or what tech it develops it can't just bomb North Korea into the ground.

Negotiations with China do have a point to them, an end to economic support to North Korea could help shift the regime internally and perhaps even one day bring it down. But they're never let the US just roll tanks north, nor do the US or South Korea want to actually do that. China is already at the point that if the North so south they won't help them (and I suspect will promptly invade North Korea themselves).

Now the sharing of missile tech is a real possibility, we already know that the Norks send stuff to Cuba. Though on a level we may have to accept that, if we put the Norks of to much they could get really desperate for money, and a really desperate North Korea might trying selling nuclear material to a terrorist group.

North Korea is the IR version of a guy with a bomb wired to his chest, but it's no a suicide bomber, the Nork regime likes being alive, it wont blow itself (and South Korea) up as long as we don't try and blow it up.

North Korea threats for aid are normally of a different nature, a bombing here, a sub attack there, an artillery strike maybe, the locking up of a US citizens that's in North Korea, that's the stuff that North Korea threatens when it wants something, nuke threats are just hot air.

edited 12th Apr '15 1:08:03 AM by Silasw

And I hope it gets no worse than that. I think it depends on if the NK government thinks their ballistic missiles are a gamechanger for relaxing sanctions, which they may well consider to be an economic form of attack which their nuclear missiles can defend against.

My (possibly rather broken) metaphor / anthropomorphisation of NK is a crazy guy who's been armed up to now with a knife, and waves it at South Korea threateningly while aggressively asking for money from it and other folks nearby. Most of the other guys are armed with guns of various levels of advancement. North Korea is building himself a gun which he can then use to extort larger sums of cash from people further away. Feel free to make that into a Polandball webcomic, anyone :)

edited 12th Apr '15 7:00:46 AM by betaalpha

I have an idea I've been thinking of for putting China on the spot for negotiations, but I don't know if it belongs in this thread or in the East Asia Politics thread.

I think it's ok if you post on both threads. Bonus points if you use articles/links.