A military commander is like a physician. When a physician treats more and more patients, his medical skills become better and better. In other words, when more people die from failed treatments, the physican's skills become better. If a military commander does not taste defeat every now and then, how will he know how to fight a victorious battle? In this world, there is no such thing as an ever-victorious commander. There are only commanders who do not give up after a defeat, who grow stronger from experience, and who will eventually emerge as victors. Our army of 830,000 men embarked on a conquest in the South, but was defeated by Sun Quan and Liu Bei with just about 60,000 men. Why? I think the most fundamental reason was that in recent years, we have won too many battles. the army became arrogant, the generals lazy, the civil officials indolent and the military officers frivolous. We-especially I-became conceited and underestimated the enemy. I could not even see through even a simple battered-body ruse. This resulted in the success of Wu's fire attack. So, you see, I think it was time for us to taste the bitterness of defeat. Failure is a good thing. Failure teaches us how to succeed. Failure teaches us how we can achieve victory. Failure teaches us how we can conquer the world. If a person wants to succeed, he must know when to hold on and when to let go. It is the same with warfare. One must be able to win and also be able to lose. Although we tasted a bitter defeat at Red Cliff, our foundations remain unshaken. Of the whole empire, we still have in our hands the four provinces of Qing, You, Bing and Ji. Our cities, armies, population, and tax revenue are still many times those of Sun Quan's and Liu Bei's. The imperial court is still in Xuchang, and is still in our hands. But what about Sun Quan and Liu Bei? In times of danger, they will embrace each other and fight the common enemy. But once they are victorious, they will contend with each other covertly or overtly, and scheme against each other. For example, if Zhou Yu and Zhuge Liang were working with one heart and mind, how would it be possible for us to escape from the roads at Wulin? Don't you agree? (his troops mutter "oh yes, that's right!") If Sun Quan and Liu Bei are like this already, it'll only get worse with time. In conclusion, they will eventually split up and eventually fall. ('His troops mutter "that's right, they will eventually lose")''
— Episode 43, Cao Cao- his Rousing Speech to his men, after the disastrous defeat at Chi Bi (Red Cliffs), and why it ultimately serves to help Wei.
Cao Cao: Did you guess that I would come here?
Sima Yi: Yes.
Cao Cao: Why?
Sima Yi: When Your Excellency was discussing military affairs, every general was deeply engrossed in your words, except for me, who slept like a log. You would surely come investigate the reason for my behavior.
Cao Cao: Since you were not interested in listening to me, you must have some extraordinary view of your own. Speak then. I am willing to hear your views.
Sima Yi: The defeat at Red Cliff was not due to Your Excellency's troops getting arrogant or lazy, nor was it due to poor command. It was Heaven's will.
Cao Cao: What do you mean?
Sima Yi: At a superficial level, Your Excellency had an army of 830,000, but Sun Quan and Liu Bei had an army of only 60,000 between them. Logically speaking, at the approach of your army Sun Quan and Liu Bei should have surrendered. However, in their desperation they joined together vowing to fight to the death. Why? This is because, in the eyes of the majority of the gentry in the realm, Your Excellency is the Prime Minister in name but a traitor in reality. On the other hand, though Liu Bei is just an old vagrant, he is the Imperial Uncle. He represents the ruling family of Han. Your Excellency, though the Han is weak, it has not collapsed. Old institutions die hard. Currently, many people are still loyal to the Han and not to you. This is the Way of Heaven, which is the fundamental reason for Your Excellency's defeat.
Cao Cao: Continue.
Sima Yi: After the Battle of Red Cliff, the realm will be split among three powers. Your Excellency represents the first one- you rule over the Central Plains and the north. Sun Quan and Liu Bei represent the other two powers respectively. Both of them will set up their bases in the southern lands and fight for the province of Jing and the Riverlands. I feel that it is difficult for Your Excellency to unite the realm within 10 years' time. This is because, if Your Excellency attacks Liu Bei, Sun Quan will come to assist him. If you attack Sun Quan, the same will occur. What Your Excellency can do is reorganize your army, guard the borders, build up food supplies, reduce taxes, improve your state's economy, and strengthen the military. As long as Your Excellency rules the four provinces well, you will be at ease and in a position of power. In the tussle between three powers, you will remain invincible. After ten years, the situation will change. At that time, if Your Excellency leads a southern campaign in the name of the Emperor with 300 000 men, you will be victorious wherever you go. Perhaps, even even without blood being shed, by the course of nature the entire realm will become yours.
Cao Cao: It is unbelieveable that in the city of Xuchang there is a second person who has this foresight.
Sima Yi: Who is the other person?
Cao Cao: Me.
Sima Yi: Congratulations, Your Excellency.
Cao Cao: Ten years. Heaven knows if I can live for another ten years. Perhaps I will not be able to see the country united in my lifetime.
Sima Yi: Man proposes, Heaven disposes. A wise man will strive to do his best and do whatever is within his means, leaving the rest to Heaven.
Sima Yi: Yes.
Cao Cao: Why?
Sima Yi: When Your Excellency was discussing military affairs, every general was deeply engrossed in your words, except for me, who slept like a log. You would surely come investigate the reason for my behavior.
Cao Cao: Since you were not interested in listening to me, you must have some extraordinary view of your own. Speak then. I am willing to hear your views.
Sima Yi: The defeat at Red Cliff was not due to Your Excellency's troops getting arrogant or lazy, nor was it due to poor command. It was Heaven's will.
Cao Cao: What do you mean?
Sima Yi: At a superficial level, Your Excellency had an army of 830,000, but Sun Quan and Liu Bei had an army of only 60,000 between them. Logically speaking, at the approach of your army Sun Quan and Liu Bei should have surrendered. However, in their desperation they joined together vowing to fight to the death. Why? This is because, in the eyes of the majority of the gentry in the realm, Your Excellency is the Prime Minister in name but a traitor in reality. On the other hand, though Liu Bei is just an old vagrant, he is the Imperial Uncle. He represents the ruling family of Han. Your Excellency, though the Han is weak, it has not collapsed. Old institutions die hard. Currently, many people are still loyal to the Han and not to you. This is the Way of Heaven, which is the fundamental reason for Your Excellency's defeat.
Cao Cao: Continue.
Sima Yi: After the Battle of Red Cliff, the realm will be split among three powers. Your Excellency represents the first one- you rule over the Central Plains and the north. Sun Quan and Liu Bei represent the other two powers respectively. Both of them will set up their bases in the southern lands and fight for the province of Jing and the Riverlands. I feel that it is difficult for Your Excellency to unite the realm within 10 years' time. This is because, if Your Excellency attacks Liu Bei, Sun Quan will come to assist him. If you attack Sun Quan, the same will occur. What Your Excellency can do is reorganize your army, guard the borders, build up food supplies, reduce taxes, improve your state's economy, and strengthen the military. As long as Your Excellency rules the four provinces well, you will be at ease and in a position of power. In the tussle between three powers, you will remain invincible. After ten years, the situation will change. At that time, if Your Excellency leads a southern campaign in the name of the Emperor with 300 000 men, you will be victorious wherever you go. Perhaps, even even without blood being shed, by the course of nature the entire realm will become yours.
Cao Cao: It is unbelieveable that in the city of Xuchang there is a second person who has this foresight.
Sima Yi: Who is the other person?
Cao Cao: Me.
Sima Yi: Congratulations, Your Excellency.
Cao Cao: Ten years. Heaven knows if I can live for another ten years. Perhaps I will not be able to see the country united in my lifetime.
Sima Yi: Man proposes, Heaven disposes. A wise man will strive to do his best and do whatever is within his means, leaving the rest to Heaven.
— Episode 43, Sima Yi- his view on Cao Cao's Rousing Speech above, discussed when Cao Cao visits Sima Yi who was imprisoned because he fell asleep during the speech above.
Advisor: Your Excellency, this sudden rainstorm has extinguished the fire!
Zhuge Liang: (despairing tone) It has not rained on Mount Qi for nine whole months.... How could there be such a downpour, today of all days?!?
Advisor: Your Excellency, Heaven's whims are unpredictable. Please don't lose hope.
Zhuge Liang: Why does Heaven abandon me and assist the traitors?!? (proceeds to stumble).
Advisor: Your Excellency!
Zhuge Liang: (still ranting) I have led the northern campaigns for ten years and marched forth from Mount Qi six times! Only today did I finally manage to force Sima Yi into an inescapable trap! But now, this torrential downpour has saved him, and ruined me...! (proceeds to spit Blood from the Mouth, collapsing to the ground, concurring with cries of "Your Excellency!" from worried advisors and soldiers all reaching out to attend to him).
Zhuge Liang: (despairing tone) It has not rained on Mount Qi for nine whole months.... How could there be such a downpour, today of all days?!?
Advisor: Your Excellency, Heaven's whims are unpredictable. Please don't lose hope.
Zhuge Liang: Why does Heaven abandon me and assist the traitors?!? (proceeds to stumble).
Advisor: Your Excellency!
Zhuge Liang: (still ranting) I have led the northern campaigns for ten years and marched forth from Mount Qi six times! Only today did I finally manage to force Sima Yi into an inescapable trap! But now, this torrential downpour has saved him, and ruined me...! (proceeds to spit Blood from the Mouth, collapsing to the ground, concurring with cries of "Your Excellency!" from worried advisors and soldiers all reaching out to attend to him).
— Episode 94, Zhuge Liang- his rant, after a sudden downpour extinguished an inescapable firetrap he had sprung upon Sima Yi; the downpour saved Sima Yi, Sima Zhao (one of his sons, who served as general accompanying him) and what's left of their men from certain death.
