History Main / OccamsRazor

Occam's Razor is the bane of {{Conspiracy Theorist}}s everywhere since conspiracy theories usually rest on a lot of shaky assumptions. For example, take the Apollo Moon Landings, which many believe was a hoax. At its base, the conspiracy claims that the United States was not technologically able to send a man to the Moon, and so had to fake it. However, when you really get into what would be necessary for such a conspiracy to be accomplished, you realize it'd actually be simpler and easier to just ''send people to the Moon''.[[note]]Fun fact: Hollywood special effects were ''not'' capable of producing a "fake moon landing" on film until at least a decade after the ''actual'' first moon landing.[[/note]] (''Series/ThatMitchellAndWebbLook'' has a brilliant series of sketches on this idea, [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6MOnehCOUw including the moon landing]]).

In short, when trying to examine an incident to figure out why it happened, a simple answer involving the commonplace and reasonable is more likely to be correct. (Note: ''more'' likely, not ''always.'') In other words, when you hear hoofbeats in Central Park, think horses, not zebras.

# Humans can build pyramids[[note]]Conspiracy theorists might dispute this fact, but even if it was difficult for ancient humans to build pyramids, it could not have been literally ''impossible''.[[/note]]

Unfortunately, this can lead to misunderstandings, at least so far as what is meant by "simplest." The actual principle is, "Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity." The best explanation is the one which makes the fewest assumptions and explains all the data. This means a highly complex answer may actually be the better one if an alternative, deceptively simpler answer fails on one or both counts (it may be easier to understand but requires unproven assumptions, or it fails to explain all the data). Also important to remember is that an explanation that previously accounted for all the data may fail to do so in the future when new data appears, and so requires refinement or even replacement.

In short, when trying to examine an incident to figure out why it happened, a simple answer involving the commonplace and reasonable is more likely to be correct. (Note: ''more'' likely, not ''always.'') In other words, when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.

# They would find Earth[[note]]SciFiWritersHaveNoSenseOfScale. Space is big. Really, really big. However big you're imagining space is, it's ''even bigger than that.''[[/note]]

# They would not leave any obvious evidence of their existence[[note]]It's unlikely that they'd intentionally avoid being learned about by lifeforms after them, especially after building those incredibly conspicuous pyramids.[[/note]]

Occam's Razor is the bane of {{Conspiracy Theorist}}s everywhere since conspiracy theories usually rest on a lot of shaky assumptions. For example, take the Apollo Moon Landings, which many believe was a hoax. At its base, the conspiracy claims that the United States was not technologically able to send a man to the Moon, and so had to fake it. However, when you really get into what would be necessary for such a conspiracy to be accomplished, you realize it'd actually be simpler and easier to just ''send people to the Moon''. (''Series/ThatMitchellAndWebbLook'' has a brilliant series of sketches on this idea, [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6MOnehCOUw including the moon landing]]).

As mentioned above, the Razor requires that all the data is accounted for. Newtonian physics are simpler than modern theories and were sufficient to take a man to the Moon, but [[UsefulNotes/IsaacNewton Sir Isaac]] simply could not explain all the ''new'' data collected after him — most of which was completely unknown when ''Principia Mathematica'' was published. This required another smart man — namely, UsefulNotes/AlbertEinstein — to formulate more complex theories, particularly "UsefulNotes/{{Relativity}}." Einstein explicitly made this point himself when he said that ideas should be kept as simple as possible, and ''not simpler.'' It should be noted that Newton's theories weren't simply thrown in the trash. While Einstein's theories are concerned mainly with objects traveling at relativistic speeds and objects with extreme mass (such as black holes), Newton's theories are still used for macroscopic bodies so long as the mass and speed are not too big.

Another very common mistake is to summon up the Razor in a debate in order to add weight to a particular argument. Occam's Razor is a mental guide — nothing more — and cannot by itself be used to validate or invalidate any particular theory. This usage is entirely fallacious, as the Razor does nothing more than recommend searching for hypotheses that make the fewest new assumptions and explain all the data. It is not a magical baton that points to the right answer. Applying it in this way inevitably leads to a frankly embarrassing race to the bottom over whose theory is "simplest."

# They would not leave any obvious evidence of their existence[[note]]It's unlikely that they'd intentionally avoid being learned about by lifeforms after them.[[/note]]

# They are intelligent[[note]]Less plausible. [[UsefulNotes/FermiParadox While life may be common,]] human-level or above intelligence may not be.[[/note]]

# They develop interstellar/intergalactic travel[[note]]This is not only a question regarding faster-than-light travel but social development. Human technological advancement has only accelerated in the past 300 years, which was by no means inevitable, and for our first ''150,000 years'' remained almost entirely stagnant. Knowledge may also be forgotten or lost (as has happened multiple times in human history when important libraries were burnt). In short, technological advancement is not a given. Even an intelligent species may [[MedievalStasis never advance beyond medieval or even stone-age technology]].[[/note]]

[[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor Occam's Razor]] ([[https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor also listed]] by our good friends at Rational Wiki is an epistemological razor; a logical principle that is used in deductive reasoning to evaluate theories). It is named for the 14th-century Franciscan friar and scholastic philosopher William of Ockham, who was a particularly assiduous applier and proponent of the Law of Parsimony, although by no means the first to describe or postulate it. Occam's Razor is often paraphrased, "The simplest explanation is the best one."

# aliens exist[[note]]This is certainly plausible. The universe is a stupefyingly big place; it is not unlikely that life exists somewhere besides Earth.[[/note]]
# they are intelligent[[note]]Less plausible. [[UsefulNotes/FermiParadox While life may be common,]] human-level or above intelligence may not be.[[/note]]
# they exist contemporaneously with humans[[note]]Physically modern humans have only been around for 200,000 years. At any time during those years, humans could have gone extinct, and may yet go extinct in the future. In other words, on the timescale of billions of years, even if the universe gives birth to more than one intelligent species, they may never meet due to one going extinct before the other can arise.[[/note]]
# they're more advanced than us[[note]]Conversely to the "late to the party" theory, there's a [[https://web.archive.org/web/20210214024100if_/https://www.forbes.com/sites/curtissilver/2016/08/15/are-earth-humans-the-aliens-early-to-the-universes-life-party/?sh=f0a360f318d8 new theory]] that humans might actually be one of the first intelligent species in the universe, rather than newcomers in a universal civilization[[/note]]
# they develop interstellar/intergalactic travel[[note]]This is not only a question regarding faster-than-light travel but social development. Human technological advancement has only accelerated in the past 300 years, which was by no means inevitable, and for our first ''150,000 years'' remained almost entirely stagnant. Knowledge may also be forgotten or lost (as has happened multiple times in human history when important libraries were burnt). In short, technological advancement is not a given. Even an intelligent species may [[MedievalStasis never advance beyond medieval or even stone-age technology]].[[/note]]
# they would find Earth[[note]]SciFiWritersHaveNoSenseOfScale. Space is big. Really, really big. However big you're imagining space is, it's ''even bigger than that.''[[/note]]
# they can build pyramids[[note]]If they have interstellar travel, they probably can.[[/note]]
# they would build pyramids[[note]]Well, if they took the time out to find us in the great expanse of the universe, they could probably spare a little longer to make a few monuments.[[/note]]
# they would not leave any obvious evidence of their existence[[note]]It's unlikely that they'd intentionally avoid being learned about by lifeforms after them.[[/note]]

# humans exist[[note]]This is factually true.[[/note]]
# humans can build pyramids[[note]]Conspiracy theorists might dispute this fact, but even if it was difficult for ancient humans to build pyramids, it could not have been literally ''impossible''.[[/note]]
# humans would build pyramids[[note]]Humans have wasted time building other huge stone things, so why not pyramids?[[/note]]

[[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor Occam's Razor]] ([[https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor also listed]] by our good friends at Rational Wiki is an epistemological razor (a logical principle that is used in deductive reasoning to evaluate theories). It is named for the 14th-century Franciscan friar and scholastic philosopher William of Ockham, who was a particularly assiduous applier and proponent of the Law of Parsimony, although by no means the first to describe or postulate it. Occam's Razor is often paraphrased, "The simplest explanation is the best one."

# they would not leave any obvious evidence of their existence

# they would not leave any other evidence of their existence[[note]]None that isn't ''very'' well hidden, at any rate.[[/note]]

[[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor Occam's Razor]] ([[https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor also listed]] by our good friends at Wiki/RationalWiki) is an epistemological razor (a logical principle that is used in deductive reasoning to evaluate theories). It is named for the 14th-century Franciscan friar and scholastic philosopher William of Ockham, who was a particularly assiduous applier and proponent of the Law of Parsimony, although by no means the first to describe or postulate it. Occam's Razor is often paraphrased, "The simplest explanation is the best one."

Unfortunately, this can lead to misunderstandings, at least so far as what is meant by "simplest." The actual principle is, "Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity." The best explanation is the one which makes the fewest assumptions and explains all the data. This means a highly complex answer may actually be the better one if an alternative, deceptively simpler answer fails on one or both counts (it may be easier to understand but it requires unproven assumptions, or it fails to explain all the data). Also important to remember is that an explanation that previously accounted for all the data may fail to do so in the future when new data appears, and so requires refinement or even replacement.

Unfortunately, this can lead to misunderstandings, at least so far as what is meant by "simplest." The actual principle is, "Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity." The best explanation is the one which makes the fewest assumptions and explains all the data. This means a highly complex answer may actually be the better one if the alternative, deceptively simpler answer fails on one or both counts (it may be easier to understand but it requires unproven assumptions, or it fails to explain all the data). Also important to remember is that an explanation that previously accounted for all the data may fail to do so in the future when new data appears, and so requires refinement or even replacement.

As mentioned above, the Razor requires that all the data is accounted for. Newtonian physics are simpler than modern theories and were sufficient to take a man to the Moon, but [[UsefulNotes/IsaacNewton Sir Isaac]] simply could not explain all the ''new'' data collected after him — most of which was completely unknown when ''Principia Mathematica'' was published. This required another smart man — namely, UsefulNotes/AlbertEinstein — to formulate more complex theories, particularly "UsefulNotes/{{Relativity}}." Einstein explicitly made this point himself when he said that ideas should be kept as simple as possible, and ''not simpler.'' It should be noted that Newton's theories weren't simply thrown in the trash. While Einstein's theories are concerned mainly with the microscopic scale and objects traveling at relativistic speeds, Newton's theories sufficiently approximate the behavior of macroscopic bodies that scientists can still use them today.

As mentioned above, the Razor requires that all the data is accounted for. Newtonian physics are simpler than modern theories and were sufficient to take a man to the Moon, but [[UsefulNotes/IsaacNewton Sir Isaac]] simply could not explain all the ''new'' data collected after him-- most of which was completely unknown when ''Principia Mathematica'' was published. This required another smart man--namely, UsefulNotes/AlbertEinstein--to formulate more complex theories, particularly "UsefulNotes/{{Relativity}}." Einstein explicitly made this point himself when he said that ideas should be kept as simple as possible, and ''not simpler.'' It should be noted that Newton's theories weren't simply thrown in the trash. While Einstein's theories are concerned mainly with the microscopic scale and objects traveling at relativistic speeds, Newton's theories sufficiently approximate the behavior of macroscopic bodies that scientists can still use them today.

Another very common mistake is to summon up the Razor in a debate in order to add weight to a particular argument. Occam's Razor is a mental guide - nothing more - and cannot by itself be used to validate or invalidate any particular theory. This usage is entirely fallacious, as the Razor does nothing more than recommend searching for hypotheses that make the fewest new assumptions and explain all the data. It is not a magical baton that points to the right answer. Applying it in this way inevitably leads to a frankly embarrassing race to the bottom over whose theory is "simplest."

# they exist contemporaneously with humans [[note]]Physically modern humans have only been around for 200,000 years. At any time during those years, humans could have gone extinct, and may yet go extinct in the future. In other words, on the timescale of billions of years, even if the universe gives birth to more than one intelligent species, they may never meet due to one going extinct before the other can arise.[[/note]]