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02:27:02 PM Apr 26th 2012
Another commons statistics mistake. Is there a name for this?

Equal probability fallacy: Assuming that, if there are X possibilities, every possibility has a (100/X)% chance of happening, even when the probabilities are obviously not equal. Often seen as "There's a 50% chance that this will happen: either it will or it won't." Probability doesn't work this way, as can be shown by simply putting something obviously absurd (or obviously inevitable) in place of "this".
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