Main Artistic License Statistics Discussion

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Vilui
Topic
11:25:25 AM Oct 19th 2015
The first point made in the Civilization entry is simply not valid, as it fails to take into account that the benefit of victory and the penalty of loss are very unequal. Sure, a 75% chance means you're more likely to win than lose that individual battle, but overall if you always take those 75% chances, you will lose heavily.
weso12
Topic
07:08:19 PM Mar 27th 2015
Can remove basically any of "this game's rng seems to favor the enemy", with any actual proof (a line in the games code, a fan studying the odds with 95% certian or higher, etc) that this ACTUALLY the case, not just people's recollection bias which I'm pretty sure about 99% of them are.
Allan53
Topic
06:13:08 PM Dec 19th 2014
In the A Gift of Magic listing, how does telepathy - the ability to read and send thoughts - affect the characters ability to draw random cards from a deck?
HeroicJay
Topic
02:27:02 PM Apr 26th 2012
Another commons statistics mistake. Is there a name for this?

Equal probability fallacy: Assuming that, if there are X possibilities, every possibility has a (100/X)% chance of happening, even when the probabilities are obviously not equal. Often seen as "There's a 50% chance that this will happen: either it will or it won't." Probability doesn't work this way, as can be shown by simply putting something obviously absurd (or obviously inevitable) in place of "this".
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