History Main / ArtisticLicenseStatistics

26th Jun '16 8:00:42 PM somebob
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* In the "Captain jerk" episode of ''Series/HenryDanger'' they set up a contest where people have to guess a random number to meet Captain Man and Kid Danger. The random number is four digits, but it takes a very long time (a few days) for the final winner to guess the number, especially as they show the entire city obsessively trying to guess the correct number.
12th Jun '16 5:14:49 PM Doug86
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* All ''Franchise/FireEmblem'' games after the fifth display inaccurate hit/miss percentages. The game actually uses the average of two random numbers to determine a hit, so a 75% chance to hit is really 87.5%. This system is likely in place to make [[FragileSpeedster dodging-type]] units evade more (and thus more viable) and high-accuracy characters strike more and lessens the chance that such a character dies ([[AntiFrustrationFeatures Due to permanent death and limited saving, this means restarting the entire level in most games]]) against all 3 of the random mooks that has a 2% chance to hit each.

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* All ''Franchise/FireEmblem'' ''VideoGame/FireEmblem'' games after the fifth display inaccurate hit/miss percentages. The game actually uses the average of two random numbers to determine a hit, so a 75% chance to hit is really 87.5%. This system is likely in place to make [[FragileSpeedster dodging-type]] units evade more (and thus more viable) and high-accuracy characters strike more and lessens the chance that such a character dies ([[AntiFrustrationFeatures Due to permanent death and limited saving, this means restarting the entire level in most games]]) against all 3 of the random mooks that has a 2% chance to hit each.
8th Jun '16 5:20:50 PM Ulkomaalainen
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** Similarily, German card game ''Skat'' has rules in place, that if one player in a tournament has to use a shuffling machine (e.g. due to a disability), everybody has to, because hand shuffled decks are less random and favor the player after the dealer compared to the better randomization of a machine.
8th Jun '16 5:08:24 PM Ulkomaalainen
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* '''Naïve Combination of Probabilities''': Given the probabilities of two events, people will often simply either add them or multiply them. Generally speaking, calculating the combined probability is much more complicated. For example, suppose you roll a die twice. The probability of a six is 1/6 each time, so the probability of at least one six in two rolls must be 1/3, right?[[note]]It's actually 11/36, or about %31.[[/note]]

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* '''Naïve Combination of Probabilities''': Given the probabilities of two events, people will often simply either add them or multiply them. Generally speaking, calculating the combined probability is much more complicated. For example, suppose you roll a die twice. The probability of a six is 1/6 each time, so the probability of at least one six in two rolls must be 1/3, right?[[note]]It's actually 11/36, or about %31.31%.[[/note]]
24th May '16 3:43:20 AM FurryKef
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## The presence of 0 and 00 on the Roulette Wheel, which is an loss regardless of which of the above options you bet on, means that there's not a 50% chance of winning. The odds are actually closer to 47%. With the exception of the quint bet, all of the bets on the table have the same expected outcome, trading win amount for likeliness.

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## The presence of 0 and 00 on the Roulette Wheel, which is an a loss regardless of which of the above options you bet on, means that there's not a 50% chance of winning. The odds are actually closer to 47%. With the exception of the quint bet, all of the bets on the table have the same expected outcome, trading win amount for likeliness.
24th May '16 3:42:01 AM FurryKef
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* Go to any online TabletopGame/{{poker}} forum and look in the General Discussion forum. More often then not, you'll find a sticky about the game not being rigged, and an explanation of why it may seem that it is. Most forums will also have a 'Bad Beats' section for whining about the 'rigged' play screwing the loser.

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* Go to any online TabletopGame/{{poker}} forum and look in the General Discussion forum. More often then than not, you'll find a sticky about the game not being rigged, and an explanation of why it may seem that it is. Most forums will also have a 'Bad Beats' section for whining about the 'rigged' play screwing the loser.
14th May '16 7:20:09 PM zaphod77
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## To be guaranteed a win, you'd need an infinite amount of money and time.
## Real casinos always have betting limits, which remove the option to double up at some point.

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## To be guaranteed a win, you'd need an infinite amount of money and time. \n If you had infinite money, you wouldn't need to bet. :)
## Real casinos always have betting limits, which remove the option to double up at some point. This will generally completely wipe out your winnings thus far that session if it happens.



## The presence of 0 and 00 on the Roulette Wheel, which is an loss regardless of which of the above options you bet on, means that there's not a 50% chance of winning. The odds are actually closer to 47%.

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## The presence of 0 and 00 on the Roulette Wheel, which is an loss regardless of which of the above options you bet on, means that there's not a 50% chance of winning. The odds are actually closer to 47%. With the exception of the quint bet, all of the bets on the table have the same expected outcome, trading win amount for likeliness.
6th May '16 3:58:07 PM FerrousWhiston
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* '''[[GamblersFallacy The Gambler's fallacy]]''': All probabilities should somehow "even out" while you're playing. For example, if the computer has a hit chance of 50%, and hits, that's okay. However, if it then scores another hit right away, TheComputerIsACheatingBastard. In truth, it just happened to be the way the "dice" fell. As is often stated, "dice have no memory." In situations where extreme good/bad luck streaks are undesirable, the Gambler fallacy can be invoked, chiefly in the form of pseudo-random distribution (or PRD). Under PRD, consistent misses will slowly increase the chance of a hit, and vice versa.

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* '''[[GamblersFallacy The Gambler's fallacy]]''': All probabilities should somehow "even out" while you're playing. For example, if the computer has a hit chance of 50%, and hits, that's okay. However, if it then scores another hit right away, TheComputerIsACheatingBastard. In truth, it just happened to be the way the "dice" fell. As is often stated, "dice have no memory." In situations where extreme good/bad luck streaks are undesirable, the Gambler fallacy can be invoked, chiefly in the form of pseudo-random distribution (or PRD). Under PRD, consistent misses will slowly increase the chance of a hit, and vice versa. Many video games uses this variant of "random" without being noticed, because, "pseudo-random" feels more random than real random.
25th Apr '16 10:15:14 PM Ryusui
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* Discussed and defied in one ending of ''VideoGame/StoriesThePathOfDestinies''. After discovering that the [[DismantledMacguffin completed]] [[LostSuperweapon Skyripper]] could potentially [[spoiler: [[TheEndOfTheWorldAsWeKnowIt destroy the universe]]]] if fired, he discusses the matter further with the sage Calaveras, who narrows it down to a 1 in 128 chance. Reynardo decides this is no big deal; when confronting [[DatingCatwoman Zenobia]], he even explains the 1 in 128 chance in terms of the Gambler's Fallacy (i.e. that the risk will increase the more he fires the weapon, but the first shot should be perfectly safe), which an exasperated Zenobia points out is ''not'' how odds work at all. Needless to say, he fires it, and [[spoiler: it destroys the universe.]]
-->''"One in 128. What are the odds?"''
17th Mar '16 8:46:05 AM Vilui
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** This is really a matter of game theory, not statistics. In general, you can't afford a policy of entering battles with an 80% chance of winning, because the cost to the player of losing each battle is so much greater than the benefit of winning.
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