Accidental Broken Arrow? Or did somebody try a black op launch?

Mystery missile captured on Los Angeles helicopter. The Pentagon does not know what it is or where it came from.

It better not have been a black op launch by some foreign power. Otherwise this means we have free reign to retaliate with nuclear arms. You don't go around firing what looks like a ballistic missile into another country and expect no consequences.

If it's just an accident from a ship or one of the nearby AFB's then fine we get to plant Epileptic Trees for a while.

edited 9th Nov '10 2:01:37 PM by MajorTom

Anyone living in that area here actually see it?

A theory (but just that, a theory):

Someone decided to launch a sub-launched missile (cruise or ICBM type, dunno) right outside our teritorial waters to out us on notice.

To avoid a panic, of course NORAD won't say anything, besides that they're checking into it. Otherwise, how do they know it's no threat? They don't know who fired it (so they say), so how can they state it's not a problem? I'm guessing that they know more than they're willing to say.

Looked pretty neat, though.

^ The only three nations in the world with the will or the capability to do that but likely wouldn't for several reasons. (I am referring to China, Russia and North Korea)

• The Navy would likely have intercepted them which lends credence to an accidental launch.
• Neither the Russians nor Chinese have the capability to fight us in either a conventional war or a nuke fight. (Russians are close but most of their nuclear arsenal is of questionable operational capability)
• The North Koreans likely do not have the technology for sub-fired missiles.

edited 9th Nov '10 2:09:03 PM by MajorTom

Doesn't have to be a nuclear-tipped missile. Could've been a mere exercise shot. We do exercises off of other nation's coastlines all the time, someone might have decided to say Me Too! and pull one on us just because they could.

Russian subs are occasionally spotted off of the Atlantic. Can't see it being improbble that they're in the Pacific, either. Plus, I've heard some grumblings about finding the sonar signature of a Chinese fast-attack sub way futhur east than they are expected to operate. Yeah, like we own the Pacific or something and everyone else needs our permission to play in it.

I doubt that NK could run an op out that far without help. Their fleet is pretty much relegated to costal defense. The largest surface ship they have is a frigate, and their fleet subs are WWII-derived (Type XXI U-boat class) antiquated pieces of junk. If they pulled that off, it was with significant help, that or they have newer assets we don't know about.

It probably has a much more mundane explanation. I just can't think of what.

edited 9th Nov '10 2:23:18 PM by pvtnum11

What of the simple possibility of a black ops weapons test in America?

I find it sorta hard to believe that the US was not able to detect anything that sophisticated slipping into its waters from any of the countries you have mentioned. China and Russia aren't exactly at the cutting edge of stealth technology these days compared to American military hardware. Mentioning north korea is just silly.

There is that angle, too - our own launch. We have a long track record for conducting tests in secrecy. Oh wait, did I say th.. -is shot-

That said, if this was supposed to be a secret, it failed.

NK was mentioned only because they're prone to saber-rattling. I seriously doubt they could manage to cruise all the way to our coastline without getting caught and fire off a missile. They have a lousy track-record for missile launches, and that's from a well-prepared land facility. Doing stuff like that from a surface ship is harder, and significantly harder from a submarine. If it wasn't us, I'd figure Russia or China, leaning towards China.

We just did a huge exercise over there, anyway.

Is this a launch day stunt to promote Call of Duty: Black Ops?

If not, it might have been an anti-satellite missile test. It's plausible that The Pentagon is trying to deny involvement.

edited 9th Nov '10 2:52:04 PM by Shichibukai

Now that would be awesome.

Unlikely to be another nation's sabre rattling, because they would want all the publicity they could get for it (why take all the risk and not capitalize on the propaganda victory?). Much more likely to be a US military mistake. Why is everyone assuming a ballistic missile? We have no way of knowing how big or little the thing is, since the video I've seen has no scale. Technically, it could even have been someone's very large hobby rocket. But I vote for a mistake launch. Heads will roll soon.

edited 9th Nov '10 2:52:59 PM by DeMarquis

Could be a cruise missile or a tactical missile, those are much smaller than ICBM's - and yeah, if it turns out this was an accidental launch on our part, heads will definitely roll.

We usually do our sea launches so it tracks over Kwajalein Atoll.

If I were home I would have been right where that missile was fired at, we also happen to have a navy missile testing facility 15 minutes from where I live, where we test remotely controlled missile destroyers. Probably an accidental launch.

Maybe there's just a submarine crew out there with a tradition of celebrating Bonfire night.

Still to be on the safe side we should probably just fire off a couple of nukes anyways. That's how proportional response works, right?

An alternate explanation has been proposed: (and it sounds very convincing)

Incidentally, this is a fascinating website to explore. This guy is actually a debunker of a particular type of conspiracy theory- secret chemical spraying.

edited 9th Nov '10 4:57:13 PM by DeMarquis

The simpler answer wins, in my eyes.

I had heard contrails mentioned elsewhere, but this does a nice job of explaining it, thanks.

Obviously, James Bond just foiled another plot by SPECTRE. I hope he enjoys his time on the life raft with the girl He deserves it.

Sorry Tom, no nuclear strikes this time.

Let me win this thread:

UF Os. Yeah baby.

It also have been an unscheduled private space industry launch. A test, a accidental launch. Or who knows what.

I find it sorta hard to believe that the US was not able to detect anything that sophisticated slipping into its waters from any of the countries you have mentioned. China and Russia aren't exactly at the cutting edge of stealth technology these days compared to American military hardware. Mentioning north korea is just silly.

Uhhh... if a sub wants to get to the US coast line undetected, it will afaik have no trouble doing it, neither from Russia, China, Europe or the USA (if it tried to get there undetected). Heck, modern subs have shown repeatedly that they have no trouble sneaking up to US-carriers undetected. This includes US-subs, which are considered more loud and clunky than diesel-electic versions from Germany or Russia. In underwater stealth the USA is actually behind other countries. The nuclear subs just have to many moving parts to remain effectively silent, but they can operate longer while remaining submerged.

So I'd say that a foreign power made a firetest there is a possibility.

[edit]
Just looked at the alternative explanation, and it sounds very plausible.

edited 10th Nov '10 6:16:37 AM by Uchuujinsan

More info here: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/10/earlyshow/main7040379.shtml

Military no longer believes it's a missile. Various experts mention the contrail theory. Quote: "We may never know"

Oh, and check this out: http://flightaware.com/live/ Type in your local airport. It's pretty fucking awesome.

edited 10th Nov '10 6:35:03 AM by DeMarquis

How about nuking something, just in case.

edited 10th Nov '10 6:34:37 AM by Stormtroper

It's the only way to be sure.

Nuclear Launch Detected

I dont know why, but I find this animation completely... compelling. Like watching the US as if it were a bee hive, or a circulatory system. http://flightaware.com/analysis/allflights_movie.rvt

Calls to mind an anthill, for me. But definitely neat.