And when it all goes to pot, there will be a Trump Tweet from 2013 which will be mindbogglingly appropriate.
In response to a prior post - yes I am aware UK is in NATO. I was part of the ISAF deployment to Afghanistan and I have a NATO Medal in a drawer - the Falklands are a weird case as there were other factors at work - publicly the French, for example, expressed support for us (Especially after exocet missiles they'd sold to Argentina hit UK vessels) but in private their cabinet was not in favour.
The USA tried to dissuade the UK from involvement (Monroe Doctrine, conflict over the loyalty to the anti-communist Argentine regime of the period etc)
Also, article 5 applies to attacks on the home territory of a NATO member:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security. "
At the time, Maggie also had a boner for showing how we could take this on - it was a show of UK force projection to display we were still punching above our weight.
Right know, I don't think the US would "Let" us do it and the EU states would certainly stymie any attempts. We aren't in a great diplomatic place right now.
A procrastination in of itself
The world has also changed, a strait up invasion of another nation’s territory was barely acceptable back then, right now this even less acceptable, so the Argentinian government would be throwing itself into diplomatic hell.
That’s before we get to the fact that to wouldn't be another task for scenario, there’s no way for the EU or US to get involved when the conflict only consists of the Argentinian navy setting sail for the Falklands and getting sunk when trying to land.
The garrison isn’t some easy to overrun thing anymore, nor can you launch a surprise attack now like you could then (I mean you couldn’t back then if the intelegence services did their job, but now it’s basiclaly impossible).
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Basically it's weird - the Garrison there could probably hold off the Argentine Conscript army and its navy. Us mounting a counter would be harder now, with our limited Naval projection capability.
The international community... weirdly I think China would be supportive (in terms of ideology) of remote territories being subject. But they may also support Argentine efforts to gain more influence in that hemisphere with a pliable local government.
USA under the current administration? I wouldn't like to call it. The EU would probably be very reluctant to support us. Russia... well, depends what Putin finds amusing on the day probably.
Personally, i think we should be pushing for more investment in sensible military restructure - re-look at the Regimental model versus battlegroup structures etc. Invest in a more mobile force. Of course you have to get past the CGS group who are basically a generation behind in terms of conceptual warfare.
A procrastination in of itself
The EU wouldn’t act as one.
The French have a strategic interest in supporting the idea that remote former colonial territories have a right to self determination, the Spanish have a strategic interest in saying that British Overeas Territories don’t have a right to self determination, the rest of the EU probably doesn’t give a shit and would stay out of it/call for a peaceful resolution.
China supports the Argentinian claim, it’s based on the idea of pushing former colonial powers out of the rest of the world. Russia would probably support Argentina for the strategic reasons of causing a mess.
The US, fuck it, the US at this point might stay out of it, not by choice but because there’s nobody left at the State Department able to find the Falklands on a map.
But yeah militarily, our projection power isn’t what it used to be, but our defensive power is still strong and early warning signs are easier to pick up on than ever, we’ve got a rapid reaction force that could reinforce the ground garrison, we’ve got at least one sub down there plus the guard ship, naval reinforcements could probably book it down there reativly quickly.
Also the Argentinian Navy is a joke, look at its Wikipedia page, I’m not convinced that it could take the Falklands from the sheep that are there.
edited 17th Nov '17 5:35:28 AM by Silasw
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Don;t forget the danger puffins. And the Penguins.
Also, the landmines that are still on some of the beaches. Every now and then a penguin gets unlucky.
"In distress", my ass.
On a lighter note, unsolicited dick pic.
![[lol]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/lol2v12_4863.png "[lol]"){kind=small}
(And surprisingly, not a Marine involved. 
)
Oh, bother.
That's both hilarious and kind of impressive.
The sub alone is probably enough to give the Argentinians pause, given past experiences with such foes.
"In distress", my ass.
Further info on the dick pic. Per WaPo it was "at least one" EA-18G Growler from VAQ-130.
Night Clerk of the Apacalypse.
"The Bumahal and the other tribes have agreed to adopt a common stance" on the issue, said General Ismail Mehlawi, himself a Bumahal.
In the vast Sunni region where tribal law prevails, the tribes have addressed the thorny question of what to do about any relatives who pledged allegiance to the self-proclaimed IS "caliphate".
"They've all fled to neighbouring Syria," say residents of Al-Obeidi village in the heart of what was the last jihadist bastion in Iraq, which has just been retaken by Iraqi forces.
But if any return or are discovered in the area, they "will be treated with severity", Mehlawi said.
"No pardon will be possible," said the moustachioed Iraqi whose home was dynamited by members of his own tribe who had joined IS.
"We will punish them as prescribed by God so justice is done to the tribesmen who have been wronged" during the jihadist occupation.
The cycle of revenge has already begun in Al-Obeidi, said a security official in the Al-Qaim region whose 150,000 inhabitants belong to around half a dozen tribes
The perpetrators of the attacks were never identified.
But afterwards, several families moved out in a scenario mirrored in other places including Iraq's second city Mosul which IS also occupied before it was retaken.
"The families of jihadists can't live here because it creates tensions," said Mohammedi.
edited 17th Nov '17 6:14:29 PM by TuefelHundenIV
Who watches the watchmen?
vicarious
I guess I can't be surprised.
I don't know what I would have done in that situation beyond run and pray.
Grim stuff.
Trump to be presented with $47M deal to arm Ukraine against Russia
The National Security Council decided during a meeting on Tuesday to greenlight the presentation of a $47 million grant package to the Ukrainian government to purchase American defense arms, including the powerful Javelin anti-tank missiles.
The president and Congress must approve the sale of anti-tank missiles. The Javelin, a portable missile with a steep price-tag, has been described as "The American Military's Anti-Tank Killer."
If Trump approves the arms deal, it would be a major shift from the party platform on sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, which was amended when Trump was the party's nominee for president, from supporting "lethal defensive arms" to Ukraine to the more vague "appropriate assistance” — language that ran counter to the perspective of many of the organization’s Republicans.
meow
Speaking of Argentina, a signal has been found from their missing sub.
I take it submarines don't often go missing?
jamie-b-good.tumblr.com
The law in the night
If a sub doesn't go missing, then it isn't doing its job.
Inter arma enim silent leges
edited 19th Nov '17 8:30:00 AM by AFP
The law in the night
Benis :DDDDDDDDDDD
Inter arma enim silent leges
rollin' on dubs
U.S. serviceman arrested in connection with fatal Okinawa vehicle crash
NAHA, OKINAWA PREF. – A U.S. serviceman found with a blood alcohol content three times the legal limit after a fatal traffic accident in Okinawa Prefecture was arrested Sunday, local police said.
Nicholas James-Mc Lean, the 21-year-old marine who sustained light injuries, had earlier been questioned by police on a voluntary basis after his 2-ton military truck collided with a minitruck at an intersection in Naha at around 5:25 a.m., authorities said.
The Japanese driver, identified as 61-year-old Hidemasa Taira, was later confirmed dead at a hospital.
A witness told police that the military truck had run a red light and hit the minitruck as it was attempting to make a right turn.
“I would like to convey my deepest regret and sincere condolences to the family and friends of the Okinawan man who died as a result of this accident,” said Lt. Gen. Lawrence Nicholson, commanding general of U.S. Marine Forces Japan.
Well that guy just admitted to drinking and driving while under arrest...
Also, Japan has close to zero tolerance for alcohol impaired driving, their legal limit is a BAC 0.03 (most devices can only measure to 0.02+, so that's close to zero tolerance for mixing the two) and he was will over it (0.09 range, above the legal limit in most places).
His ass is grass.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20171120_09/
Ban for drinking is starting, not to mention a curfew.
U.S. Military And CIA Leaders May Be Investigated For War Crimes
In what Amnesty International’s Solomon Sacco called a “seminal moment for the ICC,” Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda asked the court for authorization to commence an investigation that would focus on US military and CIA leaders, as well as Taliban and Afghan officials.
The doctrine of universal jurisdiction permits any country to try foreign nationals for the most egregious crimes, even without any direct relationship to the prosecuting country. That means other nations can bring US leaders to justice for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
"In distress", my ass.
Another year, another bout of powerless flailing about by the ICC. Ho hum.
Airline Hiring, Lifestyle Issues, Deepen Air Force Pilot Shortage
With an Air Force pilot shortage that has hit 2000, and commercial airlines in a hiring boom, service leaders are brainstorming ways to address a deepening crisis, eyeing improved financial incentives and a host of administrative actions to improve quality of life for aviators and their families.
For the long term, Air Force recognizes it has to widen its pilot training pipeline by 25 percent to address stiffening competition for pilots nationwide.
Navy and Marine Corps also are taking special steps to retain more experienced pilots but, so far, those service branches haven’t seen the exodus of mid-career pilots battering the Air Force, particularly its fighter aircraft community.
Air Force needed 3,781 active duty fighter pilots by the end of September. It had fewer than 2700. Its fighter pilot shortage grew by 200 career officers in the past year alone.
“Within our pilot crisis we have multiple crises,” said Brig. Gen. Michael Koscheski, director of the Air Force Aircrew Crisis Task Force which was established earlier this year to recommend actions to address aircrew shortages across active duty, Guard and Reserve forces.
A daft can't fix this: draftees are limited to a two year term (pilot training lasts at least a year). Stop loss or recalls can't fix it.
It's neglect from Clinton, Bush and Obama. Clinton era pay rates sucked and maintenance went to shit. GWB let The War On Terror run the Air Force ragged. The pay was good but the deployments sucked and the airlines could just offer better. Obama was too busy not caring and didn't bother to notice that the USAF was about to suffer a 90's era pilot shortage.
And comes now the Orange Buffoon. I hope this is made a campaign issue and gets pinned on him. I hope much hay is made point out that Trump was president when the USAF didn't have enough pilots.
note Democrats, I'm handing you an easy one ...
All night at the computer, cuz people ain't that great. I keep to myself so I won't be on The First 48