Scottish Independence

For starters, Salmond wants to keep the pound (three years ago I think he was all for ditching it for the Euro until the whole Eurozone crisis started), preferably with a currency union for Scotland to maintain some control over its finances, the sentiment from rUK is that they will not agree to a currency union. I'm no econ expert, so correct me if I'm wrong, but if Scotland can't get a currency union and ends up having their interest rates dictated by the Bank of England, they likely wouldn't get the money for all the lavish public welfare spending that Salmond is promising in the event of independence. More than likely they will have to resort to German style austerity policies just to keep things stable. And that's not counting what will happen if independence also means defaulting on their share of the UK debt.

Also, the SNP wants control over North Sea oil reserves in order to set up something similar to the Alaskan Permanent Fund. All well and good until you realize that oil is a finite resource and the market is constantly fluctuating. I did hear a story that they found some other oil deposits elsewhere in the region which might help the SNP's case. But that raises another question of how they will fund the construction of the facilities and transport due to the reasons stated above.

Salmond is banking that iScotland will have a relatively painless admission (or readmission you could say) into the EU despite the likelihood that the UK, Spain and other countries will block it. The SNP wants to dismantle the Trident nuclear base, yet they're hoping NATO, a nuclear umbrella alliance, will admit them quickly. And I heard the base provides a lot of jobs in that particular region.

Finally, if independence results in a shaky economy for Scotland, then who will want their business to remain headquartered there, or international companies willing to invest in iScotland. What about the possibility of a brain drain as business owners, doctors, etc end up leaving for the rUK and elsewhere?

Overall, the SNP seems to be making its case more on emotion and patriotism, combined with the Scots undying hatred of the Tories, rather than any tangible solution based on pragmatic solutions.

Isn't one of the issues that various countries like Spain have regions that really don't like their national governments and Scotland going independent would give those regions fuel for fire, so to speak.

Well, given the competence (or rather, the absence thereof) that the UK governments since the Wicked Witch of Westminster - especially the Tory ones - have shown at running stuff in Scotland - see also the British Politics thread - they may just figure that getting out of their control will make Scotland better.

edited 30th Aug '14 10:51:52 AM by SeptimusHeap

Yes. The last thing Spain wants is Scotland giving its own separatist regions any ideas. Scotland's desire for closer relations with Europe also explains, on the other side of that coin, why smaller nations such as Baltic nations and Former Yugoslav countries like Croatia are good friends with us - they know their own issues getting in and figure we can work and trade together well. Plus smaller nations in Europe generally like Belgium and Holland have long had good relations with Scotland and will want that to continue.

Self interest is all over all sides of this.

That too. SNP gets support from plenty of No voters due to their general competence at running the country, but at the same time, the vote really isn't about the SNP at all. They're in charge and are leading the campaign but they're not the only ones in it and there's nothing genuine about the idea that a vote for independence = a vote for SNP.

edited 30th Aug '14 10:52:06 AM by CaissasDeathAngel

On another note, how accurate are the current polls reflecting the direction voters will take come September 18? The narrative so far has been the No campaign maintaining a steady lead despite Yes narrowing the gap as we get closer to the referendum.

Reposting this and this.

edited 30th Aug '14 11:14:49 AM by TheHandle

I love how grumpy Finland is, it's like his expression is saying "You guys never gave me a party when I joined your club".

And the reverse is also true; it's probable that some people voted SNP for parts of their campaign platform besides the independence aspect.

There's a whole load of polls on both sides that keep predicting the momentum is with/shifting towards one side or the other. No one really knows how things stand, but both acknowledge it will be fairly close.

Finding a genuinely neutral, unbiased poll is next to impossible - and even if you do, it will be accused by one or both sides of being biased anyway, making identifying it as such harder.

What is clear and accepted generally is that No won the first TV debate, and Yes won the second.

Myself among them. I was a No supporter who shifted to Yes over time, but in the last election I was undecided and made my decision for matters not relevant to the debate. No tuition fees, no prescription fees, left wing attitudes generally and a clear commitment to introducing same sex marriage legislation (England and Wales got it through quicker, but I think the SNP were quicker in promising it), etc. Those things bring in a lot of Scottish votes.

edited 30th Aug '14 11:23:24 AM by CaissasDeathAngel

So the SNP have a reputation for competence? I'm sorry, this is a party, a political party, that exists, in the United Kingdom, yes?

edited 30th Aug '14 11:28:16 AM by TheHandle

OK, so if Scotland didn't keep the pound and decided against joining the Euro, could they make their own currency, or is it not that simple?

It would just probably be pretty harsh in the short to medium term, economically, as it would get revalued. Most of Scotland's purchasing power comes from frankly, the banking down in Ye Olde Londontown.

edited 30th Aug '14 11:41:16 AM by PotatoesRock

But mi oil wealth!

Has to be managed very carefully, like Norway did. This is of course if they don't get into a feud with Britain over it. The other problem is if Scotland leaves, how politically petty is the UK and others willing to be to fuck the Highlands.

Depends on how hard a line the SNP take in the subsequent negotiations. I fear that rUK could drive a very hard bargain - I don't know if I'd blame them either - indeed, and I'm not sure the SNP are adequately prepared for that.

edited 30th Aug '14 11:53:56 AM by Achaemenid

We could yet see a case of winning the peace being as much a struggle as winning the war, since the negotiations are likely to be brutal.

That's not counting how polarized the Scots on both sides of the debate will be regardless. If it's a Yes vote, No supporters will go on about how Yes Scotland's social media campaign bullied and intimidated people into voting ayes. If it's the other way, expect a lot of Yes supporters claiming voter fraud and ballot stuffing from the Tories in Westminster.

The referendum seems to have opened a lot of long simmering passions from nationalists and unionists, and I don't see the ill will they have for each other ebbing after this is over.

I think the worst that can happen is that the losing camp could refuse to participate in the post-result political process. I suspect the result would be a slow slide into irrelevancy for whoever that is. This will end with a whimper, not a bang.

Now, I suppose its possible that the Unionists could remain unionist post-Indy and we could have some counter-referendum tango for the next half-century, but that seems unlikely.

edited 30th Aug '14 1:00:29 PM by Achaemenid

That's possible whatever the outcome. My ex-boss is an Englishman living in England but working in Scotland and supports Yes. He thinks a No vote could actually invigorate Yes supporters into pushing for another bite at the cherry, especially if the UK continues to move to the right.

If the promised powers that will be offered to Scotland don't materialise quickly, he may have a point. Said powers are actually one of my big beefs with the pro-Union campaign - if the powers were so good for Scotland, why not give us them now? As is, they're just a bribe for No votes, not being given because it's genuinely the right thing to do for the country.

Both sides claim to want to avoid a "Neverendum" a la Quebec, but then both sides want a decisive victory that just won't happen. That it will be close inevitably means the losing side - whom I still think will be Yes in spite of my support for them - will be determined to give it another go within a few years. I can't see another referendum happening for 20-30 years either way though.

As an aside, it's also re-opened passions between the English and Scots in general and, in a smaller scale, regional passions within England itself, especially in Cornwall and between the North and South of England^note  As if you've been reading the comments in any of the news stories, you'll probably know about .

"Frankly all the racist idiots supporting the No campaign - UKIP, BNP, Orange Order, Daily Mail provide all the more reason to vote Yes so we can escape the whole lot of them." - Caissas Death Angel

This is a case of Hitler Ate Sugar. The mere fact that these people happen to support the No campaign is nowhere near enough of a reason to vote Yes. And there are plenty of racist idiots in the Yes campaign as well, don't forget, but that is not why I'm voting No.

edited 30th Aug '14 6:32:32 PM by Maxiboy136

I really doubt a new line on a map will let you escape racist idiot. they tend to be everywhere.

I mean, the Confederacy left America and it had racism to spare.

There's probably also a lot of puerile "lol fuck the English" twats there too.

Settler Watch make me laugh - if it wasn't for English "settlers" the Highlands and Islands would be screwed.

Well, it looks like he's won. Jim Murphy has suspended his campaign tour. On the advice of the police. I suppose the worst-case scenario is if someone gets killed due to the Referendum. I wonder how likely that might be.

Scottish independence: How might a currency change affect the rest of the UK?

edited 31st Aug '14 3:09:16 AM by Greenmantle

The model featured in hundreds of thousands of Better Together leaflets is actually a Yes voter. Oops.