Scottish Independence

Crosspost from the British Politics Thread because I momentarily forgot we have a separate thread for this:

From what I've read, it looked like a sure bet for No at first, but then Westminster politicians tried to bully people into voting No with threatening statements about how bad it would be for the Scottish economy, how they'd lose the pound sterling etc. and as a result, more and more Scottish people swung towards Yes out of spite.

I'm neutral on this issue; I've heard neither side's arguments and I'm not all that interested in them. What I am very curious about, though, is what the results of Scottish independence would be.

For example, what would happen to the rest of the UK? Wales will probably remain glued to England, but what about Northern Ireland? Would Scottish independence embolden the Republican movement over there? Would England get a permanent Tory government when Labour's Scottish voters are removed from the equation? And would the "amputated" UK lose power and standing on the international stage?

As for the newly-minted Republic of Scotland itself, what would its foreign policy be like? Would it apply to join the EU, perhaps even the Eurozone? And would it get accepted? With which countries would it try to form alliances, and would it succeed?

Questions, questions.

We're keeping the Queen, apparently, like Canada, Australia, and NZ.

The term that's been given to it is "enlightened self-interest". I suspect (and hope) that in practice it will be much like that of the Nordics.

According to the SNP, we wouldn't need to; we'd be in automatically. The EU is...iffy...on this point. I suspect that we will, eventually, have to join the Eurozone at some point.

Europe, and "yes", one hopes.

China, and "no", one hopes.

edited 21st Apr '14 12:21:00 PM by Achaemenid

Yeah, ok, but I meant more within Europe; there's plenty of blocs and alliances and rivalries within the EU, after all.

With the EU, it's an endless point of contention because no one - including the highest profile EU guys who have spoken about it - seems to know for sure. The No campaign insists it's beyond question that we would not be in the EU automatically, Yes likewise insists we would be automatically. There is no precedent and we won't ever know unless it happens.

Entry to the Eurozone was assumed as the default pre-crisis, and indeed was part of the appeal to those here who wanted Britain in the Euro from the offset. Post-crisis it's less clear, but still likely to happen eventually unless the currency somehow collapses (which seems unlikely by now, but that's a discussion for another thread).

Our obvious alliances within Europe are with smaller countries with whom Scotland already has very good relations; the Dutch and Croatians love us for example, and there has been support from Baltic states I believe. The likes of Croatia see us as their kin, and it as mutually beneficial that we smaller nations stick together and help each other out. For obvious reasons relating to their own separatist movements, and also Gibraltar, the likes of Spain despise us.

...we do?

I'm Dutch, and from what I hear in the media our allies are mostly Germany (seriously, we're like a 17th Bundesland sometimes) and other "tough on budget discipline" countries like Finland and Austria.

Thanks for the simplistic, uninformed and condescending mischaracterization.

It's not really possible to predict what the political climate will be in the future regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

There's no plan to make an independent Scotland a republic. An independent Scotland will be a Constitutional Monarchy and a member of the Commonwealth.

Foreign policy will depend on the policies of future Scottish governments, but the plan proposed by the SNP is for Scotland to remain in the EU and NATO. There is debate over whether or not Scotland would assume continued membership of these organizations as a successor to the UK or if it would have to reapply, but the most logical outcome is that Scotland's membership would be negotiated prior to independence (24 March 2016), with Scotland either joining upon independence or shortly thereafter.

An old article: a comparison between Scotland and Portugal.

Keep in mind that the Portuguese Independence process was done twice a long time ago and in different circumstances. Way different.

...I should have added a stronger disclaimer than "from what I've read". I was mostly summarising a Dutch newspaper reportage about the Scottish independence campaign; I'll freely admit that probably wasn't the most informed or in-depth source.

@Rambler, with all love. You are at best the 18th. The 17th is Majorca.

Err, do we really want to be friends with the Germans? They'll dig holes in all our beaches and steal sun loungers!

We only steal those because you ignore the strategically placed towels deployed at sunrise!

OK, I must admit I'm having trouble not hearing smug tones from the statements over the downfall of the CBI.

I don't think Scotland's foreign policy would chance too much if it voted for independence. Its location and traditional allies put it rather firmly in the NATO camp after all. If another Iraq happens they'll take the route that Germany/France/Canada/et all took and just stay out (though even the US and the UK have lost their stomach for such interventions for now).

Compared to England/Wales, how significant is republican sentiment in Scotland anyway?

Dumping a damn towel on a sunlounger doesn't make it yours! You have to have uninterrupted possession! You Jerries can't treat sunloungers like you treat neutral countries.

A good question. I'm not sure myself, but I'm tempted to conclude that it's telling that the SNP had to hurriedly reassure voters that yes, we would still keep the Queen as our head of state.

And half the time it seems like Alex wants himself crowned King afterwards.

Not terribly significant. Aside from the far-left (whose electoral performances have been consistently going downhill) it isn't really part of the national discussion.

England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales: not really all that big on this whole Republic thing.

I mean: it's too much faff, really.

It probably helps that we kind of broke the absolute power of the monarchy after the Civil War.

The Better Together campaign continues to explore new depths of depraved journalism through the mainstream media, in this case, the Daily Express:

Headline today in Scotland: Pensions Safer In UK. Headline today in England: Pensions Shock For Millions.

The articles in question: Scotland and England

This is horrific, even by the non-existent standards of the Sexpress.

If Scottish pensions would drop bellow the level that English ones are being lowered to than it's not actually wrong. Though still pretty doggy, though I don't see why the No campaign should be held accountable for the actions of the Express.

Restore the Stuarts!

They're extinct.

Didn't Gordon Brown say that in a speech today?

edited 22nd Apr '14 2:28:34 PM by Greenmantle

Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but what currency would the newly independent Scotland use? Euro? Pound? Their own thing?