Madness in Mali

I actually did hear that there are two camps within the Tuareg movement: one fighting for an independent homeland in the entire north of the country and the other seeking to impose Sharia throughout all of Mali.

And yeah, it's not just that one garrison was abandoned, Gao fell with the junta maintaining that the soldiers don't want to fight in the residential areas. With the second of three major towns now that have fallen under the junta's eye, it seems as if the junta's credibility is in severe question now, if it hadn't been...

edited 31st Mar '12 11:25:24 PM by EarlOfSandvich

The rebels have surrounded Timbuktu and are shelling a local military base. Uh, Timbuktu is already outside ethnic Tuareg areas, isn't it? So, yeah, that seems more like the islamist "conquer all Mali" faction...

Wikipedia's map of the areas claimed (or want to be claimed) by The MNLA comfortably include Timbuktu and stretch right the way through two thirds (three quarters? Four fifths?) of Mali to near Mopti. I don't know how many people in the city are pro-MNLA though.

The MNLA's website is actually quite swish. I wonder what the pointy things are in their logo - not that it matters much, at least there's no bloody◊ AK-47s in it◊.

edited 1st Apr '12 4:36:39 AM by betaalpha

Oh, hey, nice "liberation front" wanting to rule other peoples, too:

Ethnic maps◊ of Mali◊. Timbuktu is a Songhai city. The Tuareg in fact do only live in the deserts, which just so happen to be economically worthless.

So much for military rule being more effective at fighting the war... this entire situation is a ringing endorsement for civilian rule.

Here's a larger picture of a slightly modified logo

The two outer things are clearly (long and primitive, rusty) swords. And the thing in the middle is I think a pen. Pen and sword would be classical of course. At least they separate movement and 'national' insignia, that's a good sign, right?

edited 1st Apr '12 7:26:18 AM by Octo

Not that I was paying attention to Mali before, but since having started paying attention when this coup happened, I have rapidly concluded that it is among the stupider more poorly planned coups. Announce you're not going to mismanage a fight against rebels, and then immediately look like you're mismanaging a fight against rebels, and mess up a democratic transition as well. I kind of hope I'm misreading the situation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17576725

Timbuktu has fallen. Now if these guys move into other ethnic areas, what's the chance they start running into civilian resistance.

Or worse... we have an ethnic cleansing case on our hands...

Do bear in mind that while it is mostly based on Tuareg nationalism, they're not against other ethnic groups who live in the area. If there happen to be others who feel like Bamako ignored them (if only due to distance and the fact that the desert is worthless), the MNLA will be on their side.

News: The junta is going to restore the old constitution. [1]

So they say, at least We'll see. Of course, funny thing, with an ethnic mix-up of Tuaraeg, Songhai and Fulbe (Fulani/Peul) they might as well merge with Niger...

It seems a Tuareg colonel who had been assisting the Malian Army in Kidal has defected to the MNLA...with 500 men in tow.

Mali is gonna experience three governments in the course of a couple of weeks. What fun.

It seems ECOWAS isn't buying the junta's promises. They're going to go through with the sanctions.

[1]

Map of things involved, just in case you need a visual reference.

Translating some remarks from a citizen of Goa in this article:

This is so chaotic that it would be funny if it wasn't for all the bloodshed and misery.

And now there are fears that the fighting could damage Timbuktu's heritage sites, and there are conflicting reports about what rebel faction is in control.

And now, even under international pressure and severe sanctions, the junta is contemplating charging Amadou Touré of treason. Says a regime that by the looks of it has done even less to fight the rebellion.

edited 3rd Apr '12 12:28:00 PM by EarlOfSandvich

Good lord. If the Tuareg and the Islamic rebels decide to split, that'll be four factions all fighting over Mali.

Well, fuck. The split has happened. According to the Spiegel, the Islamists of Ansar Dine have driven the Tuareg out of Timbuctu and have declared the sharia in those cities that they control, specifically banning women from wearing trousers and radio stations from playing international music. Ansar Dine is close to the Al Quaeda network, and most likely wants to conquer all of Mali...

So that's the faction that I least want to win now. Anyone who wants to make another Saudi Arabia is an enemy of mankind.

On the somewhat positive side, now that there's an open split, hopefully the MNLA can be seen as, well, at least as "not bad guys".

Indeed.

If I recall, the MNLA are the more powerful of the two factions (but the Islamists have more connections, particularly with AQIM), so perhaps this will be settled quickly. But I think that will depend on whether or not the Malian Army tries to take advantage of the split. The fear of that might keep MNLA from open war with their "allies".

The Malian Army is a joke, but unfortunately I don't think such pressure will inevitably be necessary. Hopefully there will be a full split and the MNLA will fight back, yes, but unfortunately in such affairs the 'rules' of warlordism apply and those can be "shoot them today, ally with them tomorrow"...

The Malian Army IS a joke, but if ECOWAS moves in, the Malian Army back under constitutional order would have fresh troops to assist in the battle with. The MNLA won't risk it until they get some sort of diplomatic recognition.

edited 3rd Apr '12 7:06:23 PM by FFShinra

Musical chairs. Called it!

Hopefully, the MLNA can purge the Islamists. While it's not like there's any "good guys" in this debacle (the democratic president being currently powerless), with the Islamists broken away, the Tuaregs are probably the least bad faction.