Madness in Mali

Panetta: No US Troops to Mali

Kenya ‘grateful’ for French intervention in Mali

François Hollande pledges to fight until Islamist rebels in Mali are wiped out

A look at what countries are providing to Mali in its fight against Islamic extremists

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

So, it seems that a group of previously unknown, though Al-Qaeda linked, terrorists have taken a natural gas facility in Algeria hostage as a response to France's involvement in Mali, and for Algeria allowing France to use their airspace. What effect could this have? Would this enough for France or Algeria to bow out, or would it strengthen their plans? And, since some of the hostages are American, could this increase the chance of US involvement? Or is all this too far removed from Mali itself, and will be largely irrelevant?

Link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21042659

boop

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U.S. law forbids direct military aid because Mali's government seized power in a coup

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said Wednesday that he is “confident” the United States can overcome legal obstacles to provide military help to France for its drive against al-Qaeda-linked militants in Mali.

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

apparently Algerian/Lybian Al Qaeda command has taken foreigners hostage at an oil or gas installation in Algeria as a revenge for France intervention in Mali.

"U.S. law forbids direct military aid because Mali's government seized power in a coup"

When has that stopped them anyhow?

edited 16th Jan '13 8:54:27 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

edited 16th Jan '13 9:25:49 PM by DeviantBraeburn

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

think you got the wrong thread

edited 16th Jan '13 9:25:46 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

Maybe we simply have a bit much on our plate at the moment?

As for this 'revenge', well, that simply escalates the conflict a bit, doesn't it?

It sure gives credit to all the militant hibris about revenge.

Let´s see if they get to stage an attack on France...Otherwise I cant say it would alter the conflict much unless they did something rather drastic elsewhere... in other words, go beyond your garden variety terrorist attack and more into the atrocity.

Whether this would push the French to back away or to push further is yet to be seen, and it seems like the militants want to find out.

edited 16th Jan '13 9:43:36 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

Hollande is committed to this. He said having a stronghold for al-Qaida would cost France more than fighting in Mali would. al-Qaida are just proving his point. Hollande knows that if he pulls out now al-Qaida will just win another region to use as a base of operations.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

Well, the other big AQ base managed to function because the organization had struck up a deal with the Taliban, who were in turn aided by the ISI south of the Durand Line. Here in Mali, it may be time to start looking around: are there any analogues to the ISI in the neighboring countries, that may be willing to use proxies in Mali to further their own goals? Bear in mind that though the attention is on AQIM, they are not the only group; others include Ansar al-Dine, for instance. Without regional help, the jihadist groups would be much easier to ferret out.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

A large portion of the hostages from that oil field have escaped.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21060323

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

Fun little facts like that are interesting to me - I wonder how many Al Qaeda leaders _don't_ have business interests and dealings that require them to daily break some of the most fundamental rules in the Shariah they are trying to force on the rest of the world?

A sad development in the story

An Al Jazeera article alleges the militant's strong presence was permitted by the previous Mali president due to greed for a cut of their kidnap ransoms and several other incredibly cynical reasons. That should be investigated, though it could further destabilize an already massively demoralized country.

edited 17th Jan '13 5:56:06 AM by betaalpha

The fact that AQIM have gotten their hands on high-tech gear looted from Libya will only spur France and others on when it comes to fighting them. All of that equipment has to be destroyed for the sake of security in the region. A bunch of AK 47 wielding drug smugglers is one thing, but it's a whole other when they're packing serious heat.

edited 17th Jan '13 8:35:04 AM by TheBatPencil

And let us pray that come it may (As come it will for a' that)

The death toll from the gas facility incident is now at 35 hostages and 15 of the kidnappers, according to Aljazeera's TV channel. Goddamit, what the heck was Algiers thinking?! Why the immediate rejection of negotations with the kidnappers? Why an air raid on them, of all things?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

I dont think they are getting the hostage alive regardless.

Also, I heard they bombed a car convoy that departed the oil installation.

Its seems like they killed the ring leader.

Its probably also a message to local milatant groups in Algeria as well "if you pull a stunt like this we will blow you to pieces anyway".

edited 17th Jan '13 8:51:38 AM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

Well, on a more positive note, the French intervention appears to have forced Ansar Dine to move out forces from cities (whether to go to the lines or away from them) quite far back from the edge of their territorial gains. Timbuktu has apparently been near abandoned.

Algeria really dropped the ball on this one. I mean this situation was never going to have a happy ending but a direct air assault was just begging for a blood bath.

On the other hand, according to the BBC, they did manage to free about 600 workers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21063370

edited 17th Jan '13 9:20:14 AM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

@Lascoden: That map you linked to is very revealing. I notice that the Tuaregs arent getting attacked at all, the Ansar Dine only had one of their strongholds bombed, half the MUJWA cities are getting airstrikes, and Al Q are getting the *&^^%^% bombed out of them.

Fortunate for the French that they segregated themselves like that.

I think the militant's fast abandonment of population centers gives you a pretty good idea of just how overjoyed the general population were to have them coming in there. I note a general lack of pics showing massive parades / prayer gatherings in their honour (forced or otherwise). No-one giving you a place to hide? no shows of local support? Wonder why that is.

I think all that separation is probably a symptom of how much even the Islamist groups with similar agendas are essentially opposed to each other and would probably blow up over anything the other did. If they were in the same population centres they'd probably wind up going to war with each other.

edited 17th Jan '13 10:59:20 AM by betaalpha

You know, the only good thing that could come out of this hostage clusterfuck is that Algeria and all the Sahel countries could finally decide to go all in to break AQMI. There's already a multinational force assembling in Mali and if the borders cannot protect those guys from pursuit (like if Western and local air assets are allowed to cross the boundaries and coordinates with ground forces), this could actually end with their destruction.

In Afghanistan, they could always go back to Pakistan and enjoy the lawlessness, but if the local countries decide to say "fuck it"... And, well, Algeria seems to have decided to go the X-COM route already.

As the size of an explosion increases, the number of social situations it is incapable of solving approaches zero.

Unfortunately, there are very few ways in mass hostage situations to get everyone out alive. Negotiations are probably the best way, but between the "no point negotiating with AQIM" mindset and the unreasonableness of hostage-taker demands, that's not always possible. *

Also, it's comforting to see that France is being discriminate in its targeting. It makes me hope that someone's realized that playing divide-and-conquer with the jihadi groups is feasible.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

If they got 600 hostages out and lost 35 I can't really say that that's a very bad result, considering who they were against.

If the other countries in the region want to stop Ansar Dine and its associates from fleeing Mali they'll have to block the borders somehow. Thing is, the desert is huge. You can't monitor it constantly. The good side, though, is that if you do spot them it'll be really easy to hit because they're essentially in the middle of nowhere and there's nothing around that you can break. Much easier that hitting anything in urban areas or hills.

There's a mountain range named the Ahaggar Mountains (and of course multiple variants of that name exist) that reaches from northeastern Mali to South Algeria. So that is probably one border you can't control. I predict that this will be an escape route for some of the militants if they lose in Mali.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

If they stay consistent with the "Russian Way" and our own governments accept it without withdrawing their support for the campaign, it could lead to a clear understanding: taking hostages, foreigners or not, is an elaborate form of Suicide by Cop, at which point they could begin to be less eager to do these ops.

It will be bloody, but it could lead to the elimination of AQMI altogether if we're willing to pay the price (probably with our governments openly complaining about the brutality of the local governments but still providing them with whatever they need to eliminate the problem). Yep, the X-COM way, with NATO forces playing Good Cop and Algeria playing Hannibal Lecter... Could work.

The obvious answer would be to allow, for the duration of operations, gunships and troops from the various countries to cross the borders for something like 25 km, to make sure they don't lose contact while the other country's forces get on site. You could probably do that by saying it's a UN operation with all the involved countries working on it (as long as they agree on it, of course).

edited 17th Jan '13 12:07:10 PM by RufusShinra

As the size of an explosion increases, the number of social situations it is incapable of solving approaches zero.

It's not all open desert, though; back in its own French days Algeria was the site of the Rif Rebellion, not to mention Algeria's own insurgency in the 1960s. Also, having a country go Hannibal Lecter on its provinces rarely works well—worst-case scenario it drives the locals to side with the jihadis against the central government, which is part of what's happening in the Tribal Regions of Pakistan.

Still, though, I got the distinct impression that the AQ group only cared about foreign hostages; their report focused on the fact that they bagged 41 foreigners, instead of however many hundreds of Algerian workers. The numbers are all contradictory right now.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

Multiple British casualties is the current word from Whitehall, anyway. What a clusterfuck.

And let us pray that come it may (As come it will for a' that)