Could Israel Go Nuclear on Iran by this Spring?

So as not to derail the "Iran is building nukes" thread, I thought I'd start a slightly tangential discussion here. Namely, there are indicators that Israel may be preparing to bomb Iran - recently they've run military exercises involving in-air refueling (a technique they would have to use to reach Iran), the Israeli ambassadors refused to promise that Israel would inform President Obama if they were about to conduct an air raid on Iran, and the retired former head of Mossad made unusual comments to the effect of "it would be foolish to bomb Iran, and Israel is now run by fools..." hinting that something may be in the works behind closed doors. Also, Netanyahu has systemically fired the "old guard" leaders of the military in recent months, meaning that only fresh meat is running the show - and freshmen are far less likely to defy orders that they find to be too extreme. For a detailed article about this whole thing, go ahead and read the links on the "Iran has a nuke" thread here's a link to the main article I'm talking about: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8886543/Israel-refuses-to-tell-US-its-Iran-intentions.html.

Now to get to the meat of the discussion: if Israel did a hypothetical strike on Iran, it is likely that they would only be able to hit roughly 20 targets or so. Their airforce is small and Iran has a lot of anti-air batteries in place, so it would be a difficult mission to begin with, and it is quite possible that they wouldn't do enough damage to actually take down Iran's nuclear program. But all that changes if Israel decides to use its nuclear stocks - suddenly hitting 20 targets could be a devastating blow to Iran, and cause the deaths of untold millions.

So, would Israel do it? Much of their rulers view Ahmadinejad as "the new Hitler", and they see stopping Iran as essential to Israel's survival. If the leadership in Israel feels that letting Iran get a nuclear bomb would inevitably lead to such a weapon getting detonated in Tel Aviv, wouldn't they also feel justified in using their nuclear arsenal before the Iranians have the ability to counter attack with nukes of their own? Could the world be about to enter a new and very dark century, triggered by a paranoid Israeli military using their own version of the final solution? Could Israel go nuclear on Iran by this spring?

edited 13th Nov '11 3:06:44 PM by MyGodItsFullofStars

I hope not. Only thing keeping WW3 at bay is that none of the big powers are willing to risk someone setting off a nuke and starting Mutually Assured Destruction. Israel using nukes on Iran throws that out the window.

Hopefully whoever is charged with pressing the Big Red Button has the common sense to say no.

Byte Me

My view is that Israel is run*

by paranoid idiots, who think entire world is out to get jews. It would be perfectly in their character to do soemthing stupid as attack Iran.

However, nuclear strike would so much pure Too Dumb to Live level stupidity that it would make me think that hardcore anti-Israel people are right. Nukes are not ment to be used, not really. Their real purpose is to sit there and remain a threat, not be viable weapons to use like normal bombs and armies.

Not very likely. They are more then aware of the fact that if they do, someone might very well do the same to them. That it could very likely bring the wrath of the rest of the world down on them for doing so. I doubt even the U.S. would stand behind israel after such an attack.

Who watches the watchmen?

I doubt they'll go nuclear. They keep it a poorly hidden secret to try and keep the rest of the middle east from attacking them. It mostly is a deterent, though if they were going to lose, they'd probablly launch. This, they have fighters to hit them, that'd be enough.

I'm baaaaaaack

Could they?

Sure.

Will they?

Yeah, bullshit, no way.

And if they do, it's definitely not something the US should touch with a 100 foot pole, Israel or not...

I am now known as Flyboy.

Syria and Iraq say hi to the notion that they won't. It's not a matter of will they when it comes to Israel. It's when will they do it?

The Israeli Government is vaguely dickish and foolhardy but they aren't stupid. A nuclear weapon would put them way out of the area where we can shield them from international reprisal, and there's no way in hell that the American populace would spring for them if it came to that. They'd be royally fucked and they know it.

I am now known as Flyboy.

Not even the populance, most of the REPUBLICANS wouldn't support them.

I'm baaaaaaack

^^ Them going nuclear against Iran is unlikely. They won't need to. (After all, the easiest way to topple Iran is to take out the literally one and only petroleum refinery in the country. Iran won't have time or patience for a nuclear program when its populace is out of gas and rioting in the streets because of it.)

Them striking Iran in the first place is an inevitability so long as the possibility of Iran having or seeking nukes remains.

Conventional weapons, Tom.

What worries me is the nuclear facilities right under big civilian populations. I can only be grateful that nobody leaned heavily on this tactic until Islamism did, because it's as effective as it is stone-cold evil.

But as Israel is the country with the best track record for getting off its ass, I think it likely that they were responsible for Stuxnet. Hoping it bought them a few years and the next revolution in Iran works out...

Hail Martin Septim!

Actually that just plays right into Iranian nationalism and would make the regime harder to topple. Also an air strike would, AT BEST, only push it back three years. Its not worth the consequences.

And which consequences would those be? Harsh words from the spineless Europeans? We all know Israel's neighbors are not going to pull a repeat of 1948 or 1973 any time in the immediate future, Iranian strike or not.

The UN is powerless. Iran would lose a war with Israel and worst of all it will not be the last time Israel acts in its self-interest consequences be damned.

I think, Tom that a lot of us are edgy about yanking China or Russia into the middle east, which is a jealously-guarded American territory.

And frankly, if some nut wanted to send off a nuke, there's not much anyone can do about it at this stage in history. Right? Too many nukes.

I'm a skeptical squirrel

I wouldn't be surprised if they do. After all, Barak has just declared he is happy about that explosion in a Iranian Army base, and wouldn't mind it happened more. That's like total disregard for human life, right there.

Barak = Asshole.

"That said, as I've mentioned before, apart from the helmet, he's not exactly bad looking, if a bit...blood-drenched." - juancarlos

Can you really call a statement like this crossing the moral event horizon when it's directed at the people who, three times a week, make a big show of declaring how they will cleanse the Earth of the Jewish devil? Grey-and-Grey Morality, if you ask me, just like everything else in the Middle East.

"We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried. Most people were silent."

@Tom - I would rather you stopped presuming the consequences I'm talking about (yes, even as yet another unsolicited verbal attack on the Europeans) so you would sound more like you're trying to have a cogent argument and less like you're afraid of one.

The consequences (other than the Iranian regime getting stronger) is that it would actually push them to go further underground and develop a weapon itself rather than the mere capability. All political gains made in Iraq go away (we haven't left behind a great Iraqi state, but at least they're relatively friendlier than Saddam..that would end in this scenario). In the incensed climate of the middle east right now (I mean the people, not their governments), it might cause our other regional allies even more problems because the people would be pissed at Israel and they'd have more ire to throw at our allies.

Those are just the consequences off the top of my head. There are far more.

And if Israel is going to act, damn the consequences, its only because the US shields them from those consequences. Indeed, it takes on those consequences FOR Israel so that it seems, rightly or wrongly, that Israel is some sort of bratty bully who doesn't know what consequences are, while at the same time adding costs to the US, economically and politically. General Washington meant exactly this kind of scenario that Israel is planning when he said we should be wary of foreign entanglements.

But no, Israel will somehow win and the Europeans can go fuck themselves, the damned socialists. Because THAT's a cogent response to the topic.

So one lunatic speaks for the thousands upon thousands of innocent Iranians?

When they are a military force that answers to said lunatic(s), then for all intents and purposes, yes.

Hail Martin Septim!

Barak isn't Israel, just as much as Ahmadinejad isn't Iran.

"We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried. Most people were silent."

Moreso, actually, as he doesn't hold political office at the moment.

Hail Martin Septim!

Unless Israel has suddenly become suicidal and wants to be an international pariah I think that it is safe to say, "No". Israel would gets its collective teeth kicked in, foreign aid cut off and probably forced to accept whatever deal with the Palestinians that the world at large deems acceptable.

The US would drop them so fast it would break the sound barrier.

There's also the problem that the effects of any nuking would effect Israel. Radiation and the effects of EMP are not going to stay within Iran's borders.

What I am saying is that it would be a profoundly stupid and baseless action.

edited 14th Nov '11 5:37:56 AM by Pentadragon

In short, to you, MGIFOS, No.

Nuclear warfare is never considered lightly. It's pretty much the very last option, even with dictators and corrupt governments.

in b4 Tom "Iran would use nukes" rant

Yeah, doing nuclear on Iran is pretty much worst thing to do. Israel has already having PR problems around the world, this woudl not only demolish the support for Israel but also make everyone more or less antagonist towards them.

Iran would use nukes. Popcorn comments are not appropriate.

Hail Martin Septim!